Modeling Permafrost – a CMT component
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Modeling Permafrost – a CMT component. Elchin Jafarov Vladimir Romanovsky Sergei Marchenko Geophysical Institute University of Alaska Fairbanks Boulder, October, 2011. Frozen Soil (Permafrost). Thawing Permafrost. http://www.libraryindex.com/pages/3372/Permafrost.html

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Modeling Permafrost – a CMT component

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Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Modeling Permafrost – a CMT component

Elchin Jafarov

Vladimir Romanovsky

Sergei Marchenko

Geophysical Institute

University of Alaska Fairbanks

Boulder, October, 2011


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Frozen Soil (Permafrost)


Thawing permafrost

Thawing Permafrost

http://www.libraryindex.com/pages/3372/Permafrost.html

http://ipy.arcticportal.org/index.php?/ipy/detail/permafrost/

http://nasadaacs.eos.nasa.gov/articles/2005/2005_permafrost.html


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Measurements


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Soil Moisture

Soil texture by grain size table

Neil Davis “Permafrost”


Mathematical model

Mathematical Model


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Active Layer Thickness

Ice-nucleation

temperature

Cryotic

Noncryotic

Partially Frozen

Frozen

Unfrozen

Water content

Unfrozen water content

Freezing point

depression

T < 0oC

T > 0oC

0oC

C.R. Burn. (1999). The Active Layer: Two Contrasting Definition.


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Active Layer Thickness

Ice-nucleation

temperature

Cryotic

Noncryotic

Partially Frozen

Frozen

Unfrozen

Saturation coeff.

Water content

Unfrozen water content

Freezing point

depression

T < 0oC

T > 0oC

0oC

C.R. Burn. (1999). The Active Layer: Two Contrasting Definition.


Gipl2 mpi

GIPL2-MPI

The GIPL-MPI model schematic diagram. S. Marchenko (2008)


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Input Datasets

Monthly averaged air temperature (oC) during January 1980 (SNAP).

  • The GCMs composite was downscaled to 2 by 2 km resolution using knowledge-based system PRISM.

Monthly averaged precipitation (mm) during January 1980 (SNAP).


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Input Datasets

Karlstrom, T.N.V., et al., 1964. Surficial geology of Alaska. U.S. Geol.Surv., Misc. Geol. Inv.

Map I-357, scale 1:1,584,000


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Calibration and Validation


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Results


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Results

Projections of the decadal average MAGT at 2 m depth


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

GIPL CMT component

GIPL in CMT


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Coupling TopoFlow with GIPL2

Topoflow

GIPL

ET

Runoff

INF

Thawed

VWC

f/t depth

Frozen


Modeling permafrost a cmt component

Acknowledgments

Funding

& State of Alaska


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