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Severe Weather Briefing 11/08/2011 www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing. Keith Stellman Warning Coordination Meteorologist. National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana. Overview. This afternoon through tonight: Setup: Strong upper level system passing to the northwest of the region

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Severe Weather Briefing 11/08/2011 srh.noaa/shv/briefing

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Severe Weather Briefing11/08/2011www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

Keith Stellman

Warning Coordination Meteorologist

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana


Overview

This afternoon through tonight:

Setup:

Strong upper level system passing to the northwest of the region

Strong coupled jet stream

Cold front moving in from the west

Ample wind shear for rotating storms

Impacts

Damaging winds

A few tornadoes possible

Heavy Rain

Hail a lesser threat

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana


Currently

L

Area of focus

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana


Radar @ 930

  • Some warnings for north end

  • Expect lower end to fill as day progresses


Current Instability

  • Best area (Pink) just west of the region

  • Dashed blue lines is CAP strength… stronger east


Forecast Instability @ Noon (GFS)

  • Best area (Pink->Red) I-49 and west

  • Peaks of near 2000 J/KG (double what is needed across Deep East TX


Low level wind shear (0-1 KM) (noon)

  • Lowest level wind shear… used for Tornado

  • Values >90 needed.

  • Values peak over 200 (white)


Upper level Jet (250 mb)

Note the divergent winds

2 Jet streaks working east…putting us in the favorable region


SPC slight risk area


  • Tornado

  • - Best support (proximity to surface low NE TX, SE OK, SW AR

  • - Best instability and sufficient shear located across Deep East TX -> NW LA

Area we need to watch

  • A few Tornadoes possible

  • Most likely embedded within the line that develops

  • Most likely rain wrapped


Wind

Damaging Winds along a squall line

Look for bows in the line


Noon

  • Activity beginning across the East TX/ SE OK and portions of SW AR

  • Front approaching

L


6 PM

  • Heavy Rain bisecting the region

  • Front ~LA/TX line

L


Midnight

  • Heavy rain ending across the NE LA/ South AR

  • Front ~Monroe - >Jena

L


Computer Model Rainfall Forecast (GFS)

  • Swath of 2 + extending from Lufkin -> Shreveport -> Homer

  • Due to added instability and added lift from jet


Rainfall Forecast (Late Monday -> Early Wed)

Some isolated totals near 3” are possible from East TX -> North LA/South AR.

1.00” - 1.50”

1.50” – 2”

1.50” – 2”

1.00” – 1.50”


Summary

This afternoon into tonight:

Greatest risk area from SE OK/SW AR - > East TX

Greatest threats for tonight:

Damaging Winds

Isolated tornadoes

Heavy Rain

Some uncertainty exists with just how far south storms initiate in East Texas. However, best instability lies there and will need to be watched.

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana


NEXT CONFERENCE CALL:

Thursday 11/10 @ 10 AM

www.srh.noaa.gov/shv/briefing

National Weather Service Shreveport, Louisiana


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