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Natural Gas in the German Residential & Commercial Market. Gas Industry mCHP Workshop Paris, 29 – 30 May 2008 Stephan Ramesohl (Dr.-Ing.) E.ON Ruhrgas AG. Key Questions. What is the current situation? How does the framework change?

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natural gas in the german residential commercial market

Natural Gas in the GermanResidential & Commercial Market

Gas Industry mCHP WorkshopParis, 29 – 30 May 2008

Stephan Ramesohl (Dr.-Ing.)E.ON Ruhrgas AG

key questions
Key Questions
  • What is the current situation?
  • How does the framework change?
  • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?
  • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
  • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
new buildings overall downward trend with declining market share

2030

New Buildings – Overall Downward Trend With Declining Market Share
  • apartments

2006:

140,000 homes

w/natural gas

Forecast for 2030: -50%;

of which 50% w/natural gas

Source: state officies of statistics inclusing federal states from 1991

loss in market shares as a result of upcoming competition

50,000

45,000

40,000

35,000

30,000

25,000

20,000

15,000

10,000

5,000

0

1/05

2/05

3/05

4/05

1/06

2/06

3/06

4/06

1/07

2/07

3/07

Nat gas

Electric heat pumps

Wood pellet boilers

Fuel oil

Others

Loss in Market Shares as a Result of Upcoming Competition

Market shares space heating/hot water absolute

Source: E.ON Ruhrgas

but existing homes remaining core market with high energy requirements
But: Existing Homes Remaining Core Market with High Energy Requirements

Heat demand

High energy requirements of existing homes in the long term

Share of homes [%]

existing residential buildings in germany
Existing Residential Buildings in Germany
  • Total residential buildings: 17.7 million
  • Total apartments: 39.0 million
  • 31 Dec 2006, Federal Office of Statistics
  • Large potential for technologies involving renewable energies
the gas customer s voice rising demand for renewable energies in existing homes
The Gas Customer‘s Voice: Rising Demand for Renewable Energies in Existing Homes

20%

Natural gas users increasinglyshifting their focus torenewable energies

Risk of losingapprox. 5.7 bn m³/a

15%

10%

5%

58 %

60 %

59 %

64 %

61 %

60 %

58 %

78 %

87 %

0%

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

Source: E.ON Ruhrgas

key questions1
Key Questions
  • What is the current situation?
  • How does the framework change?
  • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?
  • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
  • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
driver 1 uncertain trend in energy prices
Driver 1: Uncertain Trend in Energy Prices

?

Extra-light fuel oil

Natural gas

Dynamic developmentin particular for gas/oil

?

Electricity

Source: Federal Ministry of Economics

driver 2 energy and climate policy meseberg package
Driver 2: Energy and Climate Policy (Meseberg Package):

14 out of 29 measures relevant to natural gas, residential and commercial (R & C) premium markets strongly affected

(10) EnEV 

(11) Betriebskosten Mietwohnungen

(12) CO2-Gebäude- Sanierungsprg. 

(13) Energetische Modernisierung v. soz. Infrastruktur

(14) EEWärmeG 

(15) Energetische Sanierung v. Bundesgebäuden

(6) Einführung moderner Energie- management- systeme (14) EEWärmeG 

Sector-specific

(18) Umstellung Kfz-St. auf CO2-Basis

(1) KWK 

(2) Ausbau EE-Strom

(3) CO2-arme KW-Technologien

others: 15%

R & C: 46%

Industry: 25%

power: 14%

Share 2006 [%]

  • (7) Förderprogramme für Klimaschutz und Energieeffizienz …
  • (9) Einspeiseregelung für Biogas in Erdgasnetze 
  • (25) Energieforschung und Innovation

Affecting allsectors

most important consequences of meseberg package in residential commercial market date jan 2008
Most Important Consequences of Meseberg Package in Residential & Commercial Market (Date: Jan 2008)

Amended EnEV* (new buildings) 2009 (and possibly 2012)

More stringent limit values for primaryenergy requirements -30% each

2009: knock-out criterion for gas condensing boiler

2012: knock-out criterion for gas condensing boiler + solar

  • Renewable Energies Heat Act (currently only new buildings)
  • Compliance options
  • Solar (4% collector area/m2 useful area)  Gas condensing boiler + solar
  • Electric heat pump (>50%, min 3.3/4.0) Problematic for some EHPs.
  • Gas heat pump (>50%, COPmin 1.2)  OK, achievable with gas heat pump
  • Bio oil (>50%, in condensing appliance) .
  • Biomethane (>50%, only CHP)  Discrimination against biomethane
  • µCHP  Possibly incentive for µCHP .
  • (Mandatory) connection to group/district heat  Discrimination against gas (w/renewable energies/CHP).
  • Additional efficiency (-15% vs. EnEV*) .
key questions2
Key Questions
  • What is the current situation?
  • How does the framework change?
  • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?
  • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
  • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
consequences
Consequences
  • Gas condensing technology alone no option in future for new buildings
      • Take proactive steps to secure position of natural gas in new buildings as a trend market
      • Goal: Defend nationwide gas supplies – object to extreme political stance (no natural gas in new buildings from 2020)
      • Establish new technology options
  • Existing buildings continue to be mass market with (so far) relatively free choice of technology
      • Condensing boilers to be developed further as the basic technology with a focus on existing homes(costs , condensing boiler/solar, biomethane)
      • Sales lost as a result of improved efficiencies/renewable energies to be compensated for by substitution of fuel oilFocus: customers with service connection as target group
key questions3
Key Questions
  • What is the current situation?
  • How does the framework change?
  • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?
  • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
  • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
strategic answer part 1 expand technology portfolio combine natural gas and renewable energies
Strategic Answer, Part 1:Expand Technology Portfolio - Combine Natural Gas and Renewable Energies

Highly efficientcondensing heatingsystems (existing)

Solar & gascondensing boiler

Naturalgas

Bio-methane

Gas heat pump

to use ambient heat

strategic answer part 2 expand technology portfolio combine heat and power

hocheffizienteBrennwertheizungen(Bestand)

Solarthermie &Gas-Brennwertkessel

Umweltwärme durchGaswärmepumpe

Strategic Answer, Part 2:Expand Technology Portfolio - Combine Heat and Power

Highly efficientcondensing heatingsystems (existing)

Solar & gascondensing boiler

Naturalgas

Bio-methane

Gas heat pumpto use ambient heat

(Micro) CHP

key questions4
Key Questions
  • What is the current situation?
  • How does the framework change?
  • Which are the consequences from using natural gas inthe residential & commercial market?
  • Which are the strategic answers of the gas industry?
  • Which opportunities does mCHP offer?
slide18
Natural Gas-Based CHP to Curb CO2 EmissionsExisting single-family home as an example (annual heat + power balance)

14.00

12.00

10.00

CO2 emissions in t/a

8.00

6.00

4.00

2.00

e = 40%

e = 32%

e = 38%

0.00

district heat

gas condensing

gas condensing

packaged CHP

micro CHP

micro CHP

boiler

boiler

(group heat)

(optimised)

coal

power with combined-cycle

power mix D

opportunity mchp to increase gas sales

Supplies

MFH

MFH

Supplies

Gas: 97,000 kWh

Gas: 69,000 kWh

Electricity: 20,000 kWh

Electricity: 42,000 kWh

BW

µKWK

Gas

+ 28,000 kWh

+ 40%

- 22,000 kWh

Grid electricity

Opportunity: mCHP to Increase Gas Sales

EFH

Supplies

EFH

Supplies

Gas: 26,000 kWh

Gas: 21,000 kWh

BW

Electricity: 1.500 kWh

µKWK

Gas

+ 5,000 kWh

+ 25%

Electricity: 4,400 kWh

Grid electricity

- 2,900 kWh

requirements for mchp under renewable energies heat act stirling concepts on the edge
Requirements for mCHP under Renewable Energies Heat Act Stirling concepts on the edge?

EWärmeG(BaWü)

electr. power ratio [-]

EEWärmeG(Bund)

Threshold value:

15% primary energy savingscompared to grid electricity and condensing boiler

total efficiency [%]

there is a future for natural gas in the domestic sector but not this one
There is a future for natural gas in the domestic sector –but not this one …

No solar panel,

no wall insulation –let‘s go …. !

DIE ZEIT, 11 Oct 2007

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