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The future of further education funding (12/13 and beyond). NAMSS Annual Conference 12 March 2012. Nick Linford Managing Director of Lsect Managing Editor of FE Week. 2010-11. 2011-12. 2012-13. 16-19 Funding Statement (Dec 2012). YPLA Budget & Forecast Learner Numbers. £7.147bn.

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The future of further education funding (12/13 and beyond)

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The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

The future of further education funding (12/13 and beyond)

NAMSS Annual Conference

12 March 2012

Nick LinfordManaging Director of LsectManaging Editor of FE Week


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

16-19 Funding Statement (Dec 2012)

YPLA Budget & Forecast Learner Numbers

£7.147bn

£7.171bn

£7.214bn

+0.3%

+0.6%

Appren

-0.1%

+6.9%

£779m

£833m

£780m

£2372m

£2410m

£2430m

-2.4%

S6Fs

+0.8%

FE

£4009m

£3957m

£3962m

Overall three years:Appren £ + 6.8% & learners + 11.6%S6Fs £ - 1.6% & learners + 5.4%FE £ + 1.3% & learners - 0.8%

+1.2%

+0.1%

1570

1528

1534

+2.3%

+0.4%

FY for £ and AY for learners (excl. 16-24 LLDD)

Appren

240

+8.1%

+3.3%

222

215

Also worth noting‘Minimal change in 2012/13’Transitional protection extendedSuccess factors protectedForecasted impact of RPAFinal allocation made end of March

+3.6%

+1.8%

441

449

465

S6Fs

865

872

863

-1%

0.2%

FE


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

16-19 Funding Statement (Dec 2012)

“In 2012/13 the YPLA is maintaining the demand-led funding formula without any changes”

And in 2012/13 there will be no changes to SEN nor LDD funding

But….

Index of Multiple Deprivation will be updated to calculate disadvantage uplift from the 2007 to the 2010 release (over 90% will feel impact of less than 1%)

Transitional protection has been stretched over four years (until 2015/16) in equal instalments or at 3% per learner per year (which ever is the greater) = EFFICIENCIES NEEDED

Consultation closed on 4th Jan regarding a new programme level 16-18 funding methodology to be introduced for 13/14


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

16-18 funding ~ allocations timetable


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

of which min appren expectation

3.280m

3.129m

2.927m

2.818m

2010/11

2011/12

2012/13

2014/15

19+ Investment Strategy (Nov 2011)

Adult Skills Budget

£2.8bn

£2.7bn

-7%

£2.5bn

-5%

£726m+7%incl. £42m loans

£644m

£698m+ £5%

£2bn-9%

£1.8bn-11%

Overall three years:Non-appren £ -19%Appren min expectation £ + 13%All Adult Skills Budget £ – 12%

£2.2bn

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

Also worth noting‘Focus at least £100m on SMEs’£129m for non-appren loans 2013Impact of it being Single BudgetMCL unchanged for 2012 at £500kChanges to entitlement in 2012

Illustrative learner number forecasts

But with a Single Adult Budget it’s could go in any direction!


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

So what of 2012/13?

Less funding, but quickly moved in single budget to those that can delivery priorities

More ‘freedoms’ in form of colleges legally not being part of the Government estate

Outcome Incentive Payment seem to have been scrapped/redefined….

Significant changes to entitlement (fee eligibility). L2 and L3 23 year olds and below

No change to funding rates or methodology


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

200,000

160,000

120,000

16-18

19-24

80,000

40,000

25+

0

2005/06

2006/07

2007/08

2008/09

2009/10

2010/11

Apprenticeshipgrowth

Train to Gainreduction

What next for apprenticeships?

~ Under 19 up 14,900 (+ 13%)~ 19-24 up 29,600 (+ 26%)~ 25+ up 133,000 (+ 271)%~ Overall up 177,500 (+ 63%)

182,080

143,430

131,700

In Nov the IPPR called for an end to 25+ apprenticeship funding

Minister has announced 16-18 minimum duration. And 19+?

19-24

BIS Select Committee is currently taking evidence

45+

25-44


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

Summary of the 2013/14 proposals

First edition published in October

This edition published last Thursday

Contains non-apprenticeship rates

Rules for Job Outcome Payments

Shadow calculations to be in LIS

Implementation for 2013/14


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

Rates ‘matrix’

Originally 30 incl. apprenticeships 

Now 40 excl. apprenticeships

PWF of 1.92 retained for some providers

Based on number of credits (learning time)

In partnership with


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

Rates shown as ‘loadband’ with cliff edges


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

Modelling the impact on rates

Example 1

So if at top of the QCF credit band it’s a funding cut

and at the bottom of the band it’s a funding rise


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

Other proposals

Single earnings methodology = in-year delivery (no more provider factor)

Both Disadvantage Uplift and Area Cost Uplift remain unchanged

Achievement will be worth 20% of the funding

Outcome Incentive Payments appear to have been scrapped

Job Outcome Funding piloted as 10% when learner does not achieve (!)

Funding to be capped at £4,400 (unweighted), down £176 (-4%)

Colleges will continue to be paid on profile, subject to year-end reconciliation


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

PlannedSchedule


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

Oh, and FE Loans ~ the plan

All 24+ LR (classroom) and ER (workplace) funding L3+ to be funded out of loans allocation from 2013

E.g. Apprentice takes out the income contingent loan, and pays back 9% of all earnings above £21k + 3% RPI (written off after 30 years)

Learners can start applying from March 2013

YOU liaise with Student Loans Company


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

Seems clear to me this is what the future holds, but for the well informed and responsive colleges this presents plenty of opportunity

Will the FE funding future be…

~ More complicated

~ More competitive

~ More uncertain

Or

~ Stable

~ Simple


The future of further education funding 12 13 and beyond

Q&A

Nick Linford, Lsect161-165 Greenwich High Road

London, SE10 8JA

Tel: 020 8123 4778

Mobile: 07899798270


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