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Space Weather Impacts and Some Schemes for Thinking About Them. Delores Knipp Department of Physics, USAF Academy Significant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL). Framework(s) for Impacts. Heliocentric

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Space weather impacts and some schemes for thinking about them

Space Weather Impactsand Some Schemes for Thinking About Them

Delores Knipp

Department of Physics, USAF Academy

Significant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues

Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and

Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL)


Framework s for impacts
Framework(s) for Impacts

  • Heliocentric

    • Solar Emissions

  • User-centric

    • Who cares?

  • Geocentric

    • Where on Earth?

  • Signals and Systems

  • Space Weather vs Space Environment


Heliocentric--Solar Emissions

B Field/

Plasma

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS


Disturbed Solar Emissions

Flares

Enhanced B Field/

Plasma Clouds

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Enhanced Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

  • HF RADIO BLACKOUT

  • SATCOM INTERFERENCE

  • RADAR INTERFERENCE

  • IMAGE INTERFERENCE



Disturbed Solar Emissions

Mass Ejections

Flares

Enhanced B Field/

Plasma Clouds

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Enhanced Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

  • HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT

  • SATELLITE DISORIENTATION

  • SPACECRAFT DAMAGE

  • FALSE SENSOR READINGS

  • LAUNCH PAYLOAD FAILURE

  • RADIATION EXPOSURE


Disturbed Solar Emissions

Helicity/Mass Ejections

Enhanced B Field/

Plasma Clouds

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Enhanced

Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

  • HF RADIO BLACKOUT

  • SATELLITE ORBIT DECAY

  • RADAR FALSETARGETS

  • SATCOM INTERFERENCE

  • POWER GRID DISTURBANCES


Pause for Inquiry—How are these monitored?

B Field/

Plasma

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

MONITORS

MONITORS

MONITORS


User-centric—Who Cares?

National and International Level Users

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Civil

Military

Dual

Scintillations

Navigation/Communications

Ionospheric Currents

Ground Induced Currents

Electron Density Profiles—Comm and Nav

Neutral Atmosphere Variations—Satellite Drag

Space Radiation—System and Human Exposure


Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SPACE ENVIRONMENT

SPACE WEATHER

SYSTEMEFFECTS

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

High

Mid-Latitude

Low

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO


Beyond, Geostationary, Highly Eccentric, Medium, Low Earth Orbit

BEO

ACE, SOHO

POLAR

GPS

POES

GOES


Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

High

Mid-Latitude

Low

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO


BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit

Energetic Particles-Solar Arrays (SOHO)

SOHO’s Solar Array Degradation History

Solar array degradation: Net loss in two week period 1.1%


Energetic particles deep space missions

BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit

Energetic Particles-DEEP Space Missions

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Mars Odyssey - Spacecraft entered safe mode during the severe radiation storm. The MARIE instrument on the Mars Odyssey had a temperature red alarm leading to power-off on October 28. The instrument did not recover.

Stardust - Comet mission went into safe mode due to read errors; recovered.

SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of engine due to radiation levels in lunar transfer orbit. Reported a total of 3 shutdowns; decided not to thrust below altitude of 104 km.

Mars Explorer Rover - Spacecraft entered “Sun Idle” mode due to excessive star tracker events. Waited out event and recovered.

Microwave Anisotropy Probe - Spacecraft star tracker reset, and backup tracker autonomously turned on. Prime tracker recovered.

Mars Express - Spacecraft had to use gyroscopes for stabilization, due to loss of stars as reference points. The radiation storm blinded the orbiter's star trackers for 15 hours. The flares also delayed a scheduled Beagle 2 checkout procedure.

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms


Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Edge of Space

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

High

Mid-Latitude

Low


GEO, HEO and MEO

Impacts Categorized by Region

GEO, HEO, MEO

  • Magnetic Field Anomalies

  • Satellites in these orbits are usually immersed in Earths northward directed field

  • During extreme magnetopause compression the satellites could sense solar wind field of various orientations.

GEO, HEO, MEO

  • Space and Radiation Belt Hazards

  • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets

  • Surface and internal charging / discharging

  • Human tissue damage


Oct nov 2003 satellite impacts

GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit

Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Kodama, Data Relay Test Satellite (DRTS) - Went into safe mode during a severe (S4) solar radiation storm. The DRTS is a geostationary communications satellite that relays data among Low Earth Orbit (300-1,000 km altitude) spacecraft (including the International Space Station) and ground stations.

GOES-9, 10 and 12 - High bit error rates (9 and 10) and magnetic torquers disabled (12) due to solar activity.

Inmarsat (fleet of 9 geosynchronous satellites) - Controllers at their Satellite Control Centre had to quickly react to the solar activity to control Inmarsat’s fleet of geosynchronous satellites. Two experienced speed increases in momentum wheels requiring firing of thrusters, and one had outage when its CPU tripped out.

TV and Pay Radio Satellite Services: TV satellite controllers resorted to "manual attitude control" for 18-hour to 24-hour periods due to magnetopause crossing events that affected the attitude controller of two or more of their fleet. Pay radio satellite had several short-lived periods where they lost satellite lock.

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms


CLUSTER Solar Array Panel Degradation ~1.4%

Provided by NASA Space Science Mission Operations

Put SAMPEX Data Here



High speed solar wind and killer electrons

GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit

High Speed Solar Wind and “Killer Electrons”

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Courtesy Dan Baker


Energetic particles star trackers soho

BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit

Energetic Particles-Star Trackers (SOHO)

SYSTEMEFFECTS


C2 MOS Capacitor damaged by energetic particles. The capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)


Geocentric—Where on Earth? capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

SYSTEMEFFECTS

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

Edge of Space

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

High

Mid-Latitude

Low


LEO--Low Earth Orbit capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

Impacts Categorized by Region

LEO

Radiation Belts

Sun-Atmosphere

  • Space and Radiation Belt Hazards

  • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets

  • Surface and internal charging / discharging

  • Human tissue damage

  • Thermospheric Hazards

  • Satellite Drag

  • Atomic Oxygen Damage


Oct nov 2003 satellite impacts1

LEO--Low Earth Orbit capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts

SYSTEMEFFECTS

DMSP F16 - SSIES sensor lost data twice, on October 28 and November 03; Microwave sounder lost oscillator; Switched to redundant system.

CHANDRA - Observations halted on several occasions during the October-November activity, including an extended outage from October 28 – November 01.

NOAA-17 spacecraft experienced a significant problem with the scan motors of the AMSU-A1. The instrument was powered down and no recovery efforts are planned.

Aqua, Landsat, Terra, TOMS, TRMM - NASA’s Earth Sciences Mission Office directed all instruments on these five spacecraft be turned off or safed due to the extreme solar storm prediction (October 29).

UARS/HALOE - Turn on of the instrument was delayed due to solar activity.

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms


Oct nov 2003 international space station impacts

LEO--Low Earth Orbit capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

Oct-Nov 2003 International Space Station Impacts

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) were directed to take shelter in the service module during the peak exposure intervals of the October 28-30 radiation storms. NASA also stowed the 56-foot-long Space Station Remote Manipulator System (robotic arm) during this period to prevent damage to this billion-dollar instrument.

ISS altitude loss as a result of atmospheric drag

Courtesy of NASA

*Information from NOAA

SEC Service Assessment of

Intense Space Weather Storms


Space Environment--Low Earth Orbit capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

Samples exposed on LDEF

Atomic Oxygen

reactions with

surfaces on the

ISS (Courtesy NASA)


Space Environment--Low Earth Orbit capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

Collisions with Space Debris and Meteoroids During

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Damage to Hubble Solar Array from Meteoroid Impact


Space Environment--South Atlantic Anomaly capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

Distribution of error events recorded in memory chips aboard a satellite. These Single Event Upset (SEU) events are caused by high energy cosmic rays interacting in the silicon - their distribution closely follows that of the increased radiation activity in the SAA region.


Geocentric—Where on Earth? capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

SYSTEMEFFECTS

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

Edge of Space

Atmo-spheric

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

High

Mid-Latitude

Low


Ionosphere capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

Impacts Categorized by Region

  • Auroral Region Impacts

  • Auroral Clutter

  • False Radar Detection

  • Communication Outages

Auroral And Polar Region

Direct Solar Impacts

X-ray and EUV changes to Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles

Ionosphere

Low and Mid Latitude

  • Ionospheric Impacts

  • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage

  • Surveillance clutter/mischaracterization

  • HF propagation

  • Instabilities in Electro Density Profiles

  • Radiation Belt Impacts

  • Energetic Particles in South Atlantic Anomaly

  • Chemistry Changes


Space Environment-- Ionosphere capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)Radio Communications

Absorption Refraction Scattering Transmission


Useable frequency changes with local time

Space Environment-- Ionosphere capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)Radio Communications

Useable Frequency Changes with Local Time


Space Weather Ionospheric HF Communications capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

Useable Frequency Closes on Dayside During Solar Flares


Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)SATCOM Communications

POLAR CAP

PATCHES

AURORAL IRREGULARITIES

SATCOM

GPS

PLASMA BUBBLES

EQUATORIAL F LAYER

ANOMALIES

DAY

NIGHT

MAGNETIC

EQUATOR

SBR

GPS

SATCOM

Image from S Basu, AFRL


Oct nov 2003 polar cap communication outage

High Latitude Ionospheric HF Communications capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

Oct-Nov 2003 Polar Cap Communication Outage

SIGNALSEFFECTS

  • The Antarctic science groups and staff rely on MacRelay radio operations to provide essential HF radio communications between McMurdo Station and remote sites on the Antarctic. MacRelay is also responsible for communication links with aircraft

  • and ships supporting the United States Antarctic Program.

  • MacRelay experienced over 130 hoursof HF communication blackout during the October – November activity. McMurdo staff developed a contingency plan to use Iridium satellite phones as backup during HF outages. MacRelay was made aware that space weather was causing significant HF blackout conditions, allowing them to implement contingency plans.

  • *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms


    Oct nov total electron content variations

    Mid and Low-Latitude-Ionosphere capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    SIGNAL

    EFFECTS

    Oct-Nov Total Electron Content Variations

    *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms


    Scintillations--Low-Latitude-Ionosphere capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    SIGNAL

    EFFECTS


    Equatorial F-region -Ionosphere capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    Jicamarca 50 MHz Radar Data


    Geocentric—Where on Earth? capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    SYSTEMEFFECTS

    SIGNAL

    EFFECTS

    Atmo-spheric

    Ground

    Orbital

    Sub-orbital

    Polar

    Auroral

    Sub Auroral

    Equatorial

    Worldwide

    Thermospheric

    Ionospheric

    Meso/Stratospheric

    Tropospheric

    BEO

    GEO

    HEO

    MEO

    LEO

    High

    Mid-Latitude

    Low


    Strato, Tropo Spheres capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    SYSTEMEFFECTS

    Faculae increase UV solar output


    Climate modeling by j haigh imperial college

    Solar UV Climate Connection capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    Climate Modeling by J Haigh, Imperial College

    • Analysis of NCEP zonal winds reveals that when the sun is more active the sub-tropical jets are weaker and positioned nearer the poles

    • This signal is qualitatively similar to the results of GCM simulations with enhanced solar UV (and ozone) which increases static stability in the tropical regions

    •In a simplified GCM, imposed stratospheric warming, and associated lowering of the tropopause, weakens the jets and storm-track eddies.

    •Equatorial stratospheric warming displaces the jets polewards while uniform or polar warming displaces them markedly equatorwards.

    •Baroclinic lifecycle runs show that baroclinic waves reinforce the zonal wind anomalies.


    Flight radiation impacts during oct nov 2003

    Strato, Tropo Spheres capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    Flight Radiation Impacts During Oct-Nov 2003

    SYSTEMEFFECTS

    *Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms


    Geocentric—Where on Earth? capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    SYSTEMEFFECTS

    SIGNAL

    EFFECTS

    Atmo-spheric

    Ground

    Orbital

    Sub-orbital

    Polar

    Auroral

    Sub Auroral

    Equatorial

    Worldwide

    Thermospheric

    Ionospheric

    Meso/Stratospheric

    Tropospheric

    BEO

    GEO

    HEO

    MEO

    LEO

    High

    Mid-Latitude

    Low


    Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)SATCOM Communications

    POLAR CAP

    PATCHES

    AURORAL IRREGULARITIES

    SATCOM

    GPS

    PLASMA BUBBLES

    EQUATORIAL F LAYER

    ANOMALIES

    DAY

    NIGHT

    MAGNETIC

    EQUATOR

    SBR

    GPS

    SATCOM

    Image from S Basu, AFRL


    Over a dozen transpolar flights re routed

    Polar Communications Outages capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    Over a Dozen Transpolar Flights Re-routed


    Sun in field of view

    Mid-latitude capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)Radio Sun Echoes

    Sun in Field of View

    Other radio frequency interference reported by cell phone tower operators during solar storms (Flares)

    Search and Rescue Frequencies report radiofrequency interference in side lobes


    IMAGE Far UV Oct 29 2003 capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)


    Power Distribution Concerns capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    • Power companies in North America experienced some problems.

    • Electrical companies took considerable effort to prepare and be aware.

    • Impacts and actions reported:

    • Less use and switching between systems;

    • High levels of neutral current observed at stations throughout the country;

    • Tripped capacitor in the northwest (known to be GIC susceptible);

    • Transformer heating in the east – precautions were implemented;

    • ‘Growling’ transformer that was backed down to help cool it down.

    • GIC impacts were more significant in

    • Northern Europe where heating in a nuclear plant transformer was reported and a power system failure occurred on October 30 in Malmo, Sweden resulting in blackout conditions.

    • South Africa where after-the-fact tests showed transformers exceeded maximum temperature and are being replaced


    Summary
    Summary capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    Courtesy of Lou Lanzerotti


    THE END! capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)


    Imapcts Categorized by Region capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    • Direct Solar Hazards

    • Radio, optical and X-ray interference

    • Solar energetic particle degradation and clutter

    • Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards

    • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage

    • HF propagation

    • Satellite Drag


    Hazards Categorized by Region capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

    • Auroral Region Hazards

    • Auroral Clutter

    • False Radar Detection

    • Direct Solar Hazards

    • Radio, optical and X-ray interference

    • Solar energetic particle degradation and clutter

    Auroral Region

    Ionosphere

    Radiation Belts

    • Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards

    • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage

    • Surveillance clutter

    • HF propagation

    • Satellite Drag

    • Radiation Belt Hazards

    • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets

    • Surface and internal charging / discharging

    • Human tissue damage


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