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Space Weather Impacts and Some Schemes for Thinking About Them. Delores Knipp Department of Physics, USAF Academy Significant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL). Framework(s) for Impacts. Heliocentric

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space weather impacts and some schemes for thinking about them

Space Weather Impactsand Some Schemes for Thinking About Them

Delores Knipp

Department of Physics, USAF Academy

Significant Contributions from Space Weather Colleagues

Especially Mr Bill Murtagh (NOAA/SEC) and

Dr Greg Ginet (USAF/AFRL)

framework s for impacts
Framework(s) for Impacts
  • Heliocentric
    • Solar Emissions
  • User-centric
    • Who cares?
  • Geocentric
    • Where on Earth?
  • Signals and Systems
  • Space Weather vs Space Environment
slide3

Heliocentric--Solar Emissions

B Field/

Plasma

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

slide4

Disturbed Solar Emissions

Flares

Enhanced B Field/

Plasma Clouds

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Enhanced Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

  • HF RADIO BLACKOUT
  • SATCOM INTERFERENCE
  • RADAR INTERFERENCE
  • IMAGE INTERFERENCE
slide6

Disturbed Solar Emissions

Mass Ejections

Flares

Enhanced B Field/

Plasma Clouds

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Enhanced Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

  • HIGH-LATITUDE HF RADIO BLACKOUT
  • SATELLITE DISORIENTATION
  • SPACECRAFT DAMAGE
  • FALSE SENSOR READINGS
  • LAUNCH PAYLOAD FAILURE
  • RADIATION EXPOSURE
slide7

Disturbed Solar Emissions

Helicity/Mass Ejections

Enhanced B Field/

Plasma Clouds

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Enhanced

Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

EFFECTS

  • HF RADIO BLACKOUT
  • SATELLITE ORBIT DECAY
  • RADAR FALSETARGETS
  • SATCOM INTERFERENCE
  • POWER GRID DISTURBANCES
slide8

Pause for Inquiry—How are these monitored?

B Field/

Plasma

ARRIVAL: 2-3 DAYS

DURATION: DAYS

Electromagnetic

Radiation

ARRIVAL: 8 min

DURATION: 1-2 HOURS

High Energy

Charged Particles

ARRIVAL: 15 MIN TO FEW HOURS

DURATION: HOURS-DAYS

MONITORS

MONITORS

MONITORS

slide9

User-centric—Who Cares?

National and International Level Users

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Civil

Military

Dual

Scintillations

Navigation/Communications

Ionospheric Currents

Ground Induced Currents

Electron Density Profiles—Comm and Nav

Neutral Atmosphere Variations—Satellite Drag

Space Radiation—System and Human Exposure

slide10

Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SPACE ENVIRONMENT

SPACE WEATHER

SYSTEMEFFECTS

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

High

Mid-Latitude

Low

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

slide11

Beyond, Geostationary, Highly Eccentric, Medium, Low Earth Orbit

BEO

ACE, SOHO

POLAR

GPS

POES

GOES

slide12

Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

High

Mid-Latitude

Low

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

slide13

BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit

Energetic Particles-Solar Arrays (SOHO)

SOHO’s Solar Array Degradation History

Solar array degradation: Net loss in two week period 1.1%

energetic particles deep space missions

BEO--Beyond Earth Orbit

Energetic Particles-DEEP Space Missions

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Mars Odyssey - Spacecraft entered safe mode during the severe radiation storm. The MARIE instrument on the Mars Odyssey had a temperature red alarm leading to power-off on October 28. The instrument did not recover.

Stardust - Comet mission went into safe mode due to read errors; recovered.

SMART-1 - Auto shutdown of engine due to radiation levels in lunar transfer orbit. Reported a total of 3 shutdowns; decided not to thrust below altitude of 104 km.

Mars Explorer Rover - Spacecraft entered “Sun Idle” mode due to excessive star tracker events. Waited out event and recovered.

Microwave Anisotropy Probe - Spacecraft star tracker reset, and backup tracker autonomously turned on. Prime tracker recovered.

Mars Express - Spacecraft had to use gyroscopes for stabilization, due to loss of stars as reference points. The radiation storm blinded the orbiter\'s star trackers for 15 hours. The flares also delayed a scheduled Beagle 2 checkout procedure.

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

slide15

Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Edge of Space

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

High

Mid-Latitude

Low

slide16

GEO, HEO and MEO

Impacts Categorized by Region

GEO, HEO, MEO

  • Magnetic Field Anomalies
  • Satellites in these orbits are usually immersed in Earths northward directed field
  • During extreme magnetopause compression the satellites could sense solar wind field of various orientations.

GEO, HEO, MEO

  • Space and Radiation Belt Hazards
  • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets
  • Surface and internal charging / discharging
  • Human tissue damage
oct nov 2003 satellite impacts

GEO and HEO—Geostationary and Highly Eccentric Earth Orbit

Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Kodama, Data Relay Test Satellite (DRTS) - Went into safe mode during a severe (S4) solar radiation storm. The DRTS is a geostationary communications satellite that relays data among Low Earth Orbit (300-1,000 km altitude) spacecraft (including the International Space Station) and ground stations.

GOES-9, 10 and 12 - High bit error rates (9 and 10) and magnetic torquers disabled (12) due to solar activity.

Inmarsat (fleet of 9 geosynchronous satellites) - Controllers at their Satellite Control Centre had to quickly react to the solar activity to control Inmarsat’s fleet of geosynchronous satellites. Two experienced speed increases in momentum wheels requiring firing of thrusters, and one had outage when its CPU tripped out.

TV and Pay Radio Satellite Services: TV satellite controllers resorted to "manual attitude control" for 18-hour to 24-hour periods due to magnetopause crossing events that affected the attitude controller of two or more of their fleet. Pay radio satellite had several short-lived periods where they lost satellite lock.

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

slide18

CLUSTER Solar Array Panel Degradation ~1.4%

Provided by NASA Space Science Mission Operations

Put SAMPEX Data Here

slide22

C2 MOS Capacitor damaged by energetic particles. The capacitor, part of a satellite instrument, was rendered inoperable. (Image from JPL)

slide23

Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SYSTEMEFFECTS

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

Edge of Space

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

High

Mid-Latitude

Low

slide24

LEO--Low Earth Orbit

Impacts Categorized by Region

LEO

Radiation Belts

Sun-Atmosphere

  • Space and Radiation Belt Hazards
  • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets
  • Surface and internal charging / discharging
  • Human tissue damage
  • Thermospheric Hazards
  • Satellite Drag
  • Atomic Oxygen Damage
oct nov 2003 satellite impacts1

LEO--Low Earth Orbit

Oct-Nov 2003 Satellite Impacts

SYSTEMEFFECTS

DMSP F16 - SSIES sensor lost data twice, on October 28 and November 03; Microwave sounder lost oscillator; Switched to redundant system.

CHANDRA - Observations halted on several occasions during the October-November activity, including an extended outage from October 28 – November 01.

NOAA-17 spacecraft experienced a significant problem with the scan motors of the AMSU-A1. The instrument was powered down and no recovery efforts are planned.

Aqua, Landsat, Terra, TOMS, TRMM - NASA’s Earth Sciences Mission Office directed all instruments on these five spacecraft be turned off or safed due to the extreme solar storm prediction (October 29).

UARS/HALOE - Turn on of the instrument was delayed due to solar activity.

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

oct nov 2003 international space station impacts

LEO--Low Earth Orbit

Oct-Nov 2003 International Space Station Impacts

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Astronauts on the International Space Station (ISS) were directed to take shelter in the service module during the peak exposure intervals of the October 28-30 radiation storms. NASA also stowed the 56-foot-long Space Station Remote Manipulator System (robotic arm) during this period to prevent damage to this billion-dollar instrument.

ISS altitude loss as a result of atmospheric drag

Courtesy of NASA

*Information from NOAA

SEC Service Assessment of

Intense Space Weather Storms

slide27

Space Environment--Low Earth Orbit

Samples exposed on LDEF

Atomic Oxygen

reactions with

surfaces on the

ISS (Courtesy NASA)

slide28

Space Environment--Low Earth Orbit

Collisions with Space Debris and Meteoroids During

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Damage to Hubble Solar Array from Meteoroid Impact

slide29

Space Environment--South Atlantic Anomaly

Distribution of error events recorded in memory chips aboard a satellite. These Single Event Upset (SEU) events are caused by high energy cosmic rays interacting in the silicon - their distribution closely follows that of the increased radiation activity in the SAA region.

slide30

Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SYSTEMEFFECTS

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

Edge of Space

Atmo-spheric

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

High

Mid-Latitude

Low

slide31

Ionosphere

Impacts Categorized by Region

  • Auroral Region Impacts
  • Auroral Clutter
  • False Radar Detection
  • Communication Outages

Auroral And Polar Region

Direct Solar Impacts

X-ray and EUV changes to Ionospheric Electron Density Profiles

Ionosphere

Low and Mid Latitude

  • Ionospheric Impacts
  • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage
  • Surveillance clutter/mischaracterization
  • HF propagation
  • Instabilities in Electro Density Profiles
  • Radiation Belt Impacts
  • Energetic Particles in South Atlantic Anomaly
  • Chemistry Changes
slide32

Space Environment-- Ionosphere Radio Communications

Absorption Refraction Scattering Transmission

slide34

Space Weather Ionospheric HF Communications

Useable Frequency Closes on Dayside During Solar Flares

slide35

Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM Communications

POLAR CAP

PATCHES

AURORAL IRREGULARITIES

SATCOM

GPS

PLASMA BUBBLES

EQUATORIAL F LAYER

ANOMALIES

DAY

NIGHT

MAGNETIC

EQUATOR

SBR

GPS

SATCOM

Image from S Basu, AFRL

oct nov 2003 polar cap communication outage

High Latitude Ionospheric HF Communications

Oct-Nov 2003 Polar Cap Communication Outage

SIGNALSEFFECTS

    • The Antarctic science groups and staff rely on MacRelay radio operations to provide essential HF radio communications between McMurdo Station and remote sites on the Antarctic. MacRelay is also responsible for communication links with aircraft
    • and ships supporting the United States Antarctic Program.
  • MacRelay experienced over 130 hoursof HF communication blackout during the October – November activity. McMurdo staff developed a contingency plan to use Iridium satellite phones as backup during HF outages. MacRelay was made aware that space weather was causing significant HF blackout conditions, allowing them to implement contingency plans.

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

oct nov total electron content variations

Mid and Low-Latitude-Ionosphere

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

Oct-Nov Total Electron Content Variations

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

slide39

Equatorial F-region -Ionosphere

Jicamarca 50 MHz Radar Data

slide40

Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SYSTEMEFFECTS

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

Atmo-spheric

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

High

Mid-Latitude

Low

slide41

Strato, Tropo Spheres

SYSTEMEFFECTS

Faculae increase UV solar output

climate modeling by j haigh imperial college

Solar UV Climate Connection

Climate Modeling by J Haigh, Imperial College

• Analysis of NCEP zonal winds reveals that when the sun is more active the sub-tropical jets are weaker and positioned nearer the poles

• This signal is qualitatively similar to the results of GCM simulations with enhanced solar UV (and ozone) which increases static stability in the tropical regions

•In a simplified GCM, imposed stratospheric warming, and associated lowering of the tropopause, weakens the jets and storm-track eddies.

•Equatorial stratospheric warming displaces the jets polewards while uniform or polar warming displaces them markedly equatorwards.

•Baroclinic lifecycle runs show that baroclinic waves reinforce the zonal wind anomalies.

flight radiation impacts during oct nov 2003

Strato, Tropo Spheres

Flight Radiation Impacts During Oct-Nov 2003

SYSTEMEFFECTS

*Information from NOAA SEC Service Assessment of Intense Space Weather Storms

slide44

Geocentric—Where on Earth?

SYSTEMEFFECTS

SIGNAL

EFFECTS

Atmo-spheric

Ground

Orbital

Sub-orbital

Polar

Auroral

Sub Auroral

Equatorial

Worldwide

Thermospheric

Ionospheric

Meso/Stratospheric

Tropospheric

BEO

GEO

HEO

MEO

LEO

High

Mid-Latitude

Low

slide45

Polar, Auroral, Equatorial Ionosphere SATCOM Communications

POLAR CAP

PATCHES

AURORAL IRREGULARITIES

SATCOM

GPS

PLASMA BUBBLES

EQUATORIAL F LAYER

ANOMALIES

DAY

NIGHT

MAGNETIC

EQUATOR

SBR

GPS

SATCOM

Image from S Basu, AFRL

sun in field of view

Mid-latitude Radio Sun Echoes

Sun in Field of View

Other radio frequency interference reported by cell phone tower operators during solar storms (Flares)

Search and Rescue Frequencies report radiofrequency interference in side lobes

slide49

Power Distribution Concerns

  • Power companies in North America experienced some problems.
  • Electrical companies took considerable effort to prepare and be aware.
  • Impacts and actions reported:
  • Less use and switching between systems;
  • High levels of neutral current observed at stations throughout the country;
  • Tripped capacitor in the northwest (known to be GIC susceptible);
  • Transformer heating in the east – precautions were implemented;
  • ‘Growling’ transformer that was backed down to help cool it down.
  • GIC impacts were more significant in
  • Northern Europe where heating in a nuclear plant transformer was reported and a power system failure occurred on October 30 in Malmo, Sweden resulting in blackout conditions.
  • South Africa where after-the-fact tests showed transformers exceeded maximum temperature and are being replaced
summary
Summary

Courtesy of Lou Lanzerotti

slide52

Imapcts Categorized by Region

  • Direct Solar Hazards
  • Radio, optical and X-ray interference
  • Solar energetic particle degradation and clutter
  • Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards
  • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage
  • HF propagation
  • Satellite Drag
slide53

Hazards Categorized by Region

  • Auroral Region Hazards
  • Auroral Clutter
  • False Radar Detection
  • Direct Solar Hazards
  • Radio, optical and X-ray interference
  • Solar energetic particle degradation and clutter

Auroral Region

Ionosphere

Radiation Belts

  • Ionospheric/Thermospheric Hazards
  • Comm/Nav link degradation and outage
  • Surveillance clutter
  • HF propagation
  • Satellite Drag
  • Radiation Belt Hazards
  • Radiation degradation and electronics upsets
  • Surface and internal charging / discharging
  • Human tissue damage
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