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The New Paradigm for Media Delivery Broadband a World Wide phenomenon

The New Paradigm for Media Delivery Broadband a World Wide phenomenon. Steve Rago Principal Analysts, Broadband and Digital Home Practice iSuppli. Agenda. Broadband… The need The opportunity The Services A worldwide phenomenon One size just does not fit all

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The New Paradigm for Media Delivery Broadband a World Wide phenomenon

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  1. The New Paradigm for Media DeliveryBroadband a World Wide phenomenon Steve Rago Principal Analysts, Broadband and Digital Home Practice iSuppli

  2. Agenda • Broadband… • The need • The opportunity • The Services • A worldwide phenomenon • One size just does not fit all • Opportunities for the very fast • The battle ground – Control of the gateway • The roadblocks to victory • Can it create a new paradigm? • How to succeed

  3. The need • Worldwide, voice carriers face stagnant revenues, declining subscribers… Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service

  4. The opportunity Factory Revenues in Millions of US Dollars Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service

  5. Broadband and the digital home Broadband Technologies Broadband Services • ADSL • VDSL • Cable • FTTH • FTTN • FTTx/LAN • WiMAX • WiFi • Power Lines Video Phone Online Gaming VOD, Broadcast Video DSLAM CMTS FTTx-OLT WiMAX Base Station Gateway Multi-Media VoIP Digital Audio Home Networking Technologies Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service

  6. One size just does not fit all Applications/Bandwidth Required VoIP 4kbps/call High-Quality Audio 192kbps/program SDTV 2mbps/program Interactive Gamming 2mbps/session HDTV (MPEG 4) 8 to 12mbps/program SDTV HDTV Audio Interactive Game Internet Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service

  7. Video - is this deja vu all over again? • Worldwide video-on-demand, broadcast video media market was $1.2 trillion in 2004… • SBC – Project Light Speed investment $4 billion • 18 million households with "super high-speed data, video and voice services" by year-end 2007 • Bell South – Will spend $2 billion in bringing 24 mbps pipes to its subscribers, video is the driver • BT – Pushing plans to offer TV over broadband • Andrew Burke, chief of BT's new Entertainment unit told the IPTV World Forum, "We want to be an entertainment facilitator.” • Verizon – Long-term arrangement with TVN Entertainment for video-on-demand programming and services over its FTTH network • Telecom Italia Bell Canada, SBC, Swisscom and Belgamcom –working with Microsoft TV IPTV platform • China Telecom and Netcom – Field-trialing video

  8. A worldwide phenomenon • 2004 to 2010 CAGR of 18%… Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service

  9. A World Wide Phenomenon-DSL Leads Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service

  10. Broadband Penetration has reach Critical Mass Broadband Penetration of Internet Households 275m Internet Households Broadband Households Source iSuppli Report: Survival of the Fastest: Broadband a Brave New World for Telcos 4th Qtr. 2004

  11. One size just does not fit all ADSL, ADSL 2+, VDSL(2) Asia Fiber to the Building Worldwide 1 to 100 mbsp PON FTTB - Xkft Central Office Verizon (BPON) | NTT (EPON) Fiber to the Premises 100s of mbsp FTTB - 15kft Node ADSL 2+ or VDSL SBC “Project Light Speed” Fiber to the Node 12 to 40 mbsp FTTN Copper 3 to 5kft Node ADSL 2+ With Bonding Bell South Fiber to the Node with Bonding 30 to 40 mbsp Copper  5kft European PTTs 10 to 15 mbsp ADSL 2+ or VDSL Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service

  12. Opportunities for the very fast Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service

  13. Opportunities for the very fast – GPON? • Pro-GPON • SBC, Verizon and Softbank have all endorsed GPON • NA GPON is the evolution of BPON (chosen in 2004) • GPON 2.4Gbps EPON 1.0Gbps • GPON strong QoS EPON (need to add QoS) • Pro-EPON • EPON less expensive then GPON • GPON uses ATM- Not efficient use of bandwidth • EPON Millions in use by end of 2005 • Simpler Optics • iSuppli is bullish on GPON

  14. The Wireless Networking Technology Landscape GSM cdmaONE W-CDMA HSDPA GPRS, EDGE, CDMA2000-1X CDMA2000-1XEV/DO WAN CDMA2000-1XEV/DV 802.20 802.16 1000 MAN Operating Range (m) 802.11b 802.11g 100 ZigBee 802.11a 802.11n LAN 10 Bluetooth UWB PAN 1 0.001 0.01 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0 1000.0 Peak Data Transmission Rates (Mbps)

  15. WiMAX: Tough Road To Market Adoption 4 Major Application Segments • Fixed Broadband Access • Dominated by DSL and cable modem; FTTP/FTTC waiting in the wings • WiMAX only for access in rural areas of developed nations • Portable Broadband Access • Will remain the domain of WiFi • Maturing technology, low cost components • Mobile Broadband Access • Real market potential – once standard defined • Will need to get acceptance by carriers • Potential 4G technology? • Wireless Backhaul • Dominant near term market for WiMAX

  16. The Battle Ground-Control of the Gateway • Residential multi-media gateway functions… • WAN interface (xDSL, Cable, FTTP…) • Data (Internet Browsing) • Router and home networking • Video (VOD, broadcast) • Voice (VoIP, Home PBX features…) • Interactive gaming • Security (Internet) • Security (Home) • QoS and SLA management • And more….

  17. Provisioning Regulations Roadblocks to victory Policy Quality/Security Preservation Government Involvement QoS SLA Security OPEX and CAPEX Promise Performance ADSL 2+ VDSL FTTx Cable VOD Gaming Profit Potential Content Access Subscriber Growth Consumer Acceptance

  18. The next paradigm for media delivery • Need “increase revenues, win back subscribers” • Carrot – Trillion dollar media delivery market • Catalyst – 150 million broadband subscribers and growing • Enablers – Broadband technologies approaching 100 mbps residential multi-media gateways • Potential – Equipment revenues, semiconductor TAM and service provider revenue over next five years

  19. How to succeed • iSuppli Broadband and Digital Home Service… • Tracks equipment and components (silicon and optics) • Covers ADSL, VDSL, WiMAX, FTTx, FTTx/LAN, VoIP over broadband • Regional breakouts include China, Japan and Latin America • Provides BOM analysis by equipment type • End-equipment focus broken down by type of CPE • Quarterly Market Trackers Updates • Subscribers by country by technology • OEM Inf. & CPE port and unit ships and Market share • Silicon port ships by major supplier • Quarterly and Yearly forecasts • Inventory trends • Four Focused Quarterly Topical Reports • Analyst Consulting Time

  20. Broadband Melody – Consumers Tune Into High-Speed Access Technologies The Next Paradigm for Media Delivery Steve Rago and Jagdish Rebello Principal Analysts, Networking and Optical Communications

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