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The New Paradigm for Media Delivery Broadband a World Wide phenomenon. Steve Rago Principal Analysts, Broadband and Digital Home Practice iSuppli. Agenda. Broadband… The need The opportunity The Services A worldwide phenomenon One size just does not fit all

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The new paradigm for media delivery broadband a world wide phenomenon

The New Paradigm for Media DeliveryBroadband a World Wide phenomenon

Steve Rago Principal Analysts,

Broadband and Digital Home Practice

iSuppli


Agenda
Agenda

  • Broadband…

    • The need

    • The opportunity

    • The Services

    • A worldwide phenomenon

    • One size just does not fit all

    • Opportunities for the very fast

    • The battle ground – Control of the gateway

    • The roadblocks to victory

    • Can it create a new paradigm?

    • How to succeed


The need
The need

  • Worldwide, voice carriers face stagnant revenues, declining subscribers…

Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service


The opportunity
The opportunity

Factory Revenues in Millions of US Dollars

Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service


Broadband and the digital home
Broadband and the digital home

Broadband Technologies

Broadband Services

  • ADSL

  • VDSL

  • Cable

  • FTTH

  • FTTN

  • FTTx/LAN

  • WiMAX

  • WiFi

  • Power Lines

Video Phone

Online Gaming

VOD, Broadcast Video

DSLAM

CMTS

FTTx-OLT

WiMAX Base Station

Gateway

Multi-Media

VoIP

Digital Audio

Home Networking Technologies

Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service


One size just does not fit all
One size just does not fit all

Applications/Bandwidth Required

VoIP 4kbps/call

High-Quality Audio 192kbps/program

SDTV 2mbps/program

Interactive Gamming 2mbps/session

HDTV (MPEG 4) 8 to 12mbps/program

SDTV

HDTV

Audio

Interactive Game

Internet

Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service


Video is this deja vu all over again
Video - is this deja vu all over again?

  • Worldwide video-on-demand, broadcast video media market was $1.2 trillion in 2004…

    • SBC – Project Light Speed investment $4 billion

      • 18 million households with "super high-speed data, video and voice services" by year-end 2007

    • Bell South – Will spend $2 billion in bringing 24 mbps pipes to its subscribers, video is the driver

    • BT – Pushing plans to offer TV over broadband

      • Andrew Burke, chief of BT's new Entertainment unit told the IPTV World Forum, "We want to be an entertainment facilitator.”

    • Verizon – Long-term arrangement with TVN Entertainment for video-on-demand programming and services over its FTTH network

    • Telecom Italia Bell Canada, SBC, Swisscom and Belgamcom –working with Microsoft TV IPTV platform

    • China Telecom and Netcom – Field-trialing video


A worldwide phenomenon
A worldwide phenomenon

  • 2004 to 2010 CAGR of 18%…

Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service


A world wide phenomenon dsl leads
A World Wide Phenomenon-DSL Leads

Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service


Broadband penetration has reach critical mass
Broadband Penetration has reach Critical Mass

Broadband Penetration of Internet Households

275m

Internet Households

Broadband Households

Source iSuppli Report: Survival of the Fastest: Broadband a Brave New World for Telcos 4th Qtr. 2004


One size just does not fit all1
One size just does not fit all

ADSL, ADSL 2+, VDSL(2)

Asia

Fiber to the Building Worldwide

1 to 100 mbsp

PON

FTTB - Xkft

Central

Office

Verizon (BPON) | NTT (EPON)

Fiber to the Premises

100s of mbsp

FTTB - 15kft

Node

ADSL 2+ or VDSL

SBC “Project Light Speed”

Fiber to the Node

12 to 40 mbsp

FTTN

Copper

3 to 5kft

Node

ADSL 2+ With Bonding

Bell South

Fiber to the Node with Bonding

30 to 40 mbsp

Copper  5kft

European PTTs

10 to 15 mbsp

ADSL 2+ or VDSL

Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service


Opportunities for the very fast
Opportunities for the very fast

Source – iSuppli Corporation Broadband and Digital Home Service


Opportunities for the very fast gpon
Opportunities for the very fast – GPON?

  • Pro-GPON

    • SBC, Verizon and Softbank have all endorsed GPON

    • NA GPON is the evolution of BPON (chosen in 2004)

    • GPON 2.4Gbps EPON 1.0Gbps

    • GPON strong QoS EPON (need to add QoS)

  • Pro-EPON

    • EPON less expensive then GPON

    • GPON uses ATM- Not efficient use of bandwidth

    • EPON Millions in use by end of 2005

    • Simpler Optics

  • iSuppli is bullish on GPON


The wireless networking technology landscape
The Wireless Networking Technology Landscape

GSM

cdmaONE

W-CDMA

HSDPA

GPRS, EDGE,

CDMA2000-1X

CDMA2000-1XEV/DO

WAN

CDMA2000-1XEV/DV

802.20

802.16

1000

MAN

Operating Range (m)

802.11b

802.11g

100

ZigBee

802.11a

802.11n

LAN

10

Bluetooth

UWB

PAN

1

0.001

0.01

0.1

1.0

10.0

100.0

1000.0

Peak Data Transmission Rates (Mbps)


Wimax tough road to market adoption
WiMAX: Tough Road To Market Adoption

4 Major Application Segments

  • Fixed Broadband Access

    • Dominated by DSL and cable modem; FTTP/FTTC waiting in the wings

    • WiMAX only for access in rural areas of developed nations

  • Portable Broadband Access

    • Will remain the domain of WiFi

      • Maturing technology, low cost components

  • Mobile Broadband Access

    • Real market potential – once standard defined

    • Will need to get acceptance by carriers

      • Potential 4G technology?

  • Wireless Backhaul

    • Dominant near term market for WiMAX


The battle ground control of the gateway
The Battle Ground-Control of the Gateway

  • Residential multi-media gateway functions…

    • WAN interface (xDSL, Cable, FTTP…)

      • Data (Internet Browsing)

      • Router and home networking

      • Video (VOD, broadcast)

      • Voice (VoIP, Home PBX features…)

      • Interactive gaming

      • Security (Internet)

      • Security (Home)

      • QoS and SLA management

      • And more….


Roadblocks to victory

Provisioning

Regulations

Roadblocks to victory

Policy

Quality/Security

Preservation

Government

Involvement

QoS

SLA

Security

OPEX and

CAPEX

Promise

Performance

ADSL 2+

VDSL

FTTx

Cable

VOD

Gaming

Profit

Potential

Content Access

Subscriber

Growth

Consumer

Acceptance


The next paradigm for media delivery
The next paradigm for media delivery

  • Need “increase revenues, win back subscribers”

  • Carrot – Trillion dollar media delivery market

  • Catalyst – 150 million broadband subscribers and growing

  • Enablers – Broadband technologies approaching 100 mbps residential multi-media gateways

  • Potential – Equipment revenues, semiconductor TAM and service provider revenue over next five years


How to succeed
How to succeed

  • iSuppli Broadband and Digital Home Service…

    • Tracks equipment and components (silicon and optics)

    • Covers ADSL, VDSL, WiMAX, FTTx, FTTx/LAN, VoIP over broadband

    • Regional breakouts include China, Japan and Latin America

    • Provides BOM analysis by equipment type

    • End-equipment focus broken down by type of CPE

    • Quarterly Market Trackers Updates

      • Subscribers by country by technology

      • OEM Inf. & CPE port and unit ships and Market share

      • Silicon port ships by major supplier

      • Quarterly and Yearly forecasts

      • Inventory trends

    • Four Focused Quarterly Topical Reports

    • Analyst Consulting Time


Steve rago and jagdish rebello principal analysts networking and optical communications

Broadband Melody – Consumers Tune Into High-Speed Access Technologies The Next Paradigm for Media Delivery

Steve Rago and Jagdish Rebello Principal Analysts, Networking and Optical Communications


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