Projecting louisiana s future population trends for louisiana parishes 2010 2030
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Projecting Louisiana’s Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030 PowerPoint PPT Presentation


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Projecting Louisiana’s Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030. Dr. Troy C. Blanchard Department of Sociology Louisiana State University. Acknowledgement:.

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Projecting Louisiana’s Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030

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Projecting Louisiana’s Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030

Dr. Troy C. Blanchard

Department of Sociology

Louisiana State University


Acknowledgement:

This work is a product of a collaborative effort between LSU and the State of Louisiana to provide a variety of agencies and organizations at the state and local level with timely demographic data on our state.


Background Information

  • What are population projections and who uses them?

  • Who projects populations and how is it accomplished?

  • How do we interpret a population projection?

  • What are the important findings from the 2010-2030 population projections?

  • What new trends are emerging that may require additional research?


What are population projections and who uses them?

  • A population projection is a simulation of what a population will look like at some point in the future based on a set of assumptions.

  • Projections are used by a wide variety of entities:

    • Organizations serving the elderly (Healthcare, Councils on Aging) use projections to identify areas with a fast growing elderly population.

    • Businesses use projections to identify a particular customer base.

    • Economic development groups use projections to identify the demand for jobs.


Who projects populations?

  • U.S. Census Bureau calculates population projections for the U.S. and individual states.

  • Sub-state projections are not a part of the U.S. Census Bureau mission:

    • Parishes

    • Cities/Towns/Villages

    • School Districts

  • Most states develop some type of projection effort to inform policy makers.

    • Louisiana: Department of Administration, Office of Electronic Services, Louisiana State Data Center


How is a population projected?

Calculate number of deaths

Population at Time 1

Calculate number of births

Population at Time 2

Calculate net migration (inmigrants-outmigrants)


How is a population projected?

  • Use past trends to predict future.

  • Why past trends?

    • Fertility and mortality patterns generally stable.

    • Migration is the least stable of the three components that influence population size, so we use long term trends (5 or 10 year averages).

  • Migration varies due to a wide variety of issues and is difficult to predict:

    • Job opportunities

    • Quality of education

    • Housing stock

    • Access to natural amenities

    • Family, social, and cultural pulls


How do we interpret a population projection?

Example…

The state of Louisiana is projected to grow by

107,920 persons between 2010 and 2015.

  • Caveat #1: If recent fertility, mortality, and migration trends remain the same, this will be the outcome.

  • Caveat #2: Not set in stone, if something happens that changes the migration, fertility, or mortality rates, the outcome will change.


Parish Population Growth 2010-2020


Key Points

  • A large share of South Louisiana Parishes are growing.

    • I-10/I-12 Corridor Metropolitan Areas

      • Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans

  • Growth in North Louisiana Parishes is concentrated.

    • Shreveport Metropolitan Areas

    • Alexandria Metropolitan Areas


Parishes Projected to Gain Population, 2010-2020


Key Points

  • Top growth parishes:

    • Livingston (BR Metro)

    • St. Tammany (NO Metro)

    • Ascension (BR Metro)

    • St. John (NO Metro)

    • Plaquemines (NO Metro)

    • Bossier (Shreveport Metro)

    • DeSoto (Shreveport Metro)


Parish Projected to Lose Population, 2010-2020


Key Points

  • Top growth parishes:

    • Madison (Tallulah Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)

    • Tensas (Rural-Delta Region)

    • East Carroll (Rural-Delta Region)

    • Winn (Rural-Central LA)

    • Concordia (Natchez, MS-LA Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)

    • Vernon (Fort Polk/DeRidder Micropolitan Area-Central LA)

    • Catahoula (Rural-Central LA)


Metropolitan Area Trends


New Trends to Consider:

  • Emerging population trend for Louisiana is the growing Hispanic population.

  • Grew by 4.83% from 2007-2008.

    • Nonhispanic Whites-.14%

    • Nonhispanic Black-1.64%

  • Growth occurring in both fast and slow growth areas:

    • The Lake Charles Metro leads the state with 7.7% growth in Hispanic, but is not a fast growing metro (<1% between 2007 and 2008).


Percent Growth in Hispanic Population for LA Metropolitan Areas


Top 20 Parishes for Percent Hispanic Population Growth


Thank You!For More Information:Dr. Troy C. BlanchardDepartment of SociologyLouisiana State University126 Stubbs HallBaton Rouge, LA [email protected](225) 578-5123


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