Projecting louisiana s future population trends for louisiana parishes 2010 2030
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Projecting Louisiana’s Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030. Dr. Troy C. Blanchard Department of Sociology Louisiana State University. Acknowledgement:.

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Projecting louisiana s future population trends for louisiana parishes 2010 2030

Projecting Louisiana’s Future: Population Trends for Louisiana Parishes, 2010-2030

Dr. Troy C. Blanchard

Department of Sociology

Louisiana State University


Acknowledgement

Acknowledgement:

This work is a product of a collaborative effort between LSU and the State of Louisiana to provide a variety of agencies and organizations at the state and local level with timely demographic data on our state.


Background information

Background Information

  • What are population projections and who uses them?

  • Who projects populations and how is it accomplished?

  • How do we interpret a population projection?

  • What are the important findings from the 2010-2030 population projections?

  • What new trends are emerging that may require additional research?


What are population projections and who uses them

What are population projections and who uses them?

  • A population projection is a simulation of what a population will look like at some point in the future based on a set of assumptions.

  • Projections are used by a wide variety of entities:

    • Organizations serving the elderly (Healthcare, Councils on Aging) use projections to identify areas with a fast growing elderly population.

    • Businesses use projections to identify a particular customer base.

    • Economic development groups use projections to identify the demand for jobs.


Who projects populations

Who projects populations?

  • U.S. Census Bureau calculates population projections for the U.S. and individual states.

  • Sub-state projections are not a part of the U.S. Census Bureau mission:

    • Parishes

    • Cities/Towns/Villages

    • School Districts

  • Most states develop some type of projection effort to inform policy makers.

    • Louisiana: Department of Administration, Office of Electronic Services, Louisiana State Data Center


How is a population projected

How is a population projected?

Calculate number of deaths

Population at Time 1

Calculate number of births

Population at Time 2

Calculate net migration (inmigrants-outmigrants)


How is a population projected1

How is a population projected?

  • Use past trends to predict future.

  • Why past trends?

    • Fertility and mortality patterns generally stable.

    • Migration is the least stable of the three components that influence population size, so we use long term trends (5 or 10 year averages).

  • Migration varies due to a wide variety of issues and is difficult to predict:

    • Job opportunities

    • Quality of education

    • Housing stock

    • Access to natural amenities

    • Family, social, and cultural pulls


How do we interpret a population projection

How do we interpret a population projection?

Example…

The state of Louisiana is projected to grow by

107,920 persons between 2010 and 2015.

  • Caveat #1: If recent fertility, mortality, and migration trends remain the same, this will be the outcome.

  • Caveat #2: Not set in stone, if something happens that changes the migration, fertility, or mortality rates, the outcome will change.


Parish population growth 2010 2020

Parish Population Growth 2010-2020


Key points

Key Points

  • A large share of South Louisiana Parishes are growing.

    • I-10/I-12 Corridor Metropolitan Areas

      • Lafayette, Baton Rouge, and New Orleans

  • Growth in North Louisiana Parishes is concentrated.

    • Shreveport Metropolitan Areas

    • Alexandria Metropolitan Areas


Parishes projected to gain population 2010 2020

Parishes Projected to Gain Population, 2010-2020


Key points1

Key Points

  • Top growth parishes:

    • Livingston (BR Metro)

    • St. Tammany (NO Metro)

    • Ascension (BR Metro)

    • St. John (NO Metro)

    • Plaquemines (NO Metro)

    • Bossier (Shreveport Metro)

    • DeSoto (Shreveport Metro)


Parish projected to lose population 2010 2020

Parish Projected to Lose Population, 2010-2020


Key points2

Key Points

  • Top growth parishes:

    • Madison (Tallulah Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)

    • Tensas (Rural-Delta Region)

    • East Carroll (Rural-Delta Region)

    • Winn (Rural-Central LA)

    • Concordia (Natchez, MS-LA Micropolitan Area-Delta Region)

    • Vernon (Fort Polk/DeRidder Micropolitan Area-Central LA)

    • Catahoula (Rural-Central LA)


Metropolitan area trends

Metropolitan Area Trends


New trends to consider

New Trends to Consider:

  • Emerging population trend for Louisiana is the growing Hispanic population.

  • Grew by 4.83% from 2007-2008.

    • Nonhispanic Whites-.14%

    • Nonhispanic Black-1.64%

  • Growth occurring in both fast and slow growth areas:

    • The Lake Charles Metro leads the state with 7.7% growth in Hispanic, but is not a fast growing metro (<1% between 2007 and 2008).


Percent growth in hispanic population for la metropolitan areas

Percent Growth in Hispanic Population for LA Metropolitan Areas


Top 20 parishes for percent hispanic population growth

Top 20 Parishes for Percent Hispanic Population Growth


Projecting louisiana s future population trends for louisiana parishes 2010 2030

Thank You!For More Information:Dr. Troy C. BlanchardDepartment of SociologyLouisiana State University126 Stubbs HallBaton Rouge, LA [email protected](225) 578-5123


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