Storage 2002: Predictions for When Networlds Collide

1. Storage 2002: Predictions for When Networlds Collide Nick Allen VP and Research Director Gartner, Inc.

2. Heads Up Conclusions • Storage Networking will force organizational change • SAN management is an evolving hodge-podge. • SAM will stimulate demand for storage • Hardware product differences will become mostly irrelevant • Vendor support and development capabilities will determine the winners

3. Network Parallels • Directory (Who) DNS SNS • Authentication LDAP,AD SNS, Fabric OS • Location (Where) Router File meta data • Privacy/Security VLAN, VPN Zoning, LUN masking, ACLs • Data serving ? Block serving

4. Virtualization Outboard Backup Cross-Box Pooling DataPath Data MoverAppliance Hosts Hosts VirtualVolumes Backup Client Tape Box AnotherBox Management and Data SAN Disk Old Storage Holy Grails

5. Timing Buffers Buffers FS Switch FS Switch NFS FileSystem SCSI Driver TCP/IP HBA Driver NIC Driver HBA NIC NIC Prediction: The Death of SCSI??? 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 SCSI still lives Son of DAFS iSCSIbecomesa factor InfiniBand becomes a factor DAFSAnnouncedVIA HBAs trialed High-Roadtrialed DAF prototypes Local FS NFS DAFS User Buffers DAFS VIPL BufferCache BufferCache Kernel Data Control VI NICDriver PacketBuffers Hardware

6. Good Idea Prediction:The Next Challenge:Storage Area Management (SAM) Definitions: 1 SAM is managing the relationship between applications and their storage and everything in between. 2 SAM is the centralized management of resources and data across a storage domain(s), providing shared services to a group of servers and their applications.

7. Issue SAM What AM Storage Area Management Application Database File System Virtualizer Path Management SAN Management I/O Driver Virtualizer NIC/HBA Network Virtualizer Network Zone Management LUN Management Port LUN Masking Virtualizer RAID Management

8. Storage Administratorsand Consumers Please give me some more storage. How aboutanother terabyteat 5:15? Did my backup happen? Yes, at 10:30 this morning

9. The Storage Engineer —Master of All? Applications Operating Systems Networks File Systems Backup Vendor Tools Storage Arrays Switches People Virtualization Restore Troubleshooting Data Bases Disaster Recovery Tuning Storage Resource Management

10. Visibility NAS FC-SANs iSCSI-SANs Time As of 9/2001 Storage Networking Today Peak of Inflated Expectation Technology Trigger Trough of Disillusionment Slope of Enlightenment Plateau of Profitability

11. Prediction: SAN Adoption Rate 100% 80% NAS SAN iSCSI SAN FibreChannel Direct Attach 60% 40% 20% 0% 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005

12. Prediction: NAS vs. SAN Dollars (in Billions) $60 SAN 50 NAS 40 30 20 10 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Year

13. Prediction: Areas of Product Differentiation No • Electronics • Microprocessors • DRAM • Disks • Support equipment • Cooling • Power supplies Yes • Architecture • Software • Integration/Testing • Partnerships • Packaging • Service/Support • Distribution • Price

14. Three Places for Software Host Based • Close to the application • Can span storage arrays • Needs re-architectingfor SAN/distributedhost awareness • Array Based • Close to data • Can span hosts • Needs re-architectingto span multiple arrays • Appliance-Based • Close to nothing • Can span storage and hosts • Emerging style • Out of data path best

15. Good Idea Prediction: New Storage Selection Criteria • 100 percent data availability • No single points of hardware failure • Nondisruptive microcode updates • Nondisruptive capacity upgrades • Call-home capability • Point in time • Remote copy • Networked • Secure

16. Tradeoff Prediction: Non-Product Criteria Become Paramount Product • Solution packaging • Ease of installation • Low perceived risk • Presales service • SAM tools • Service and support • Sales experience • Marketing partnerships • Education • Emotional factors • Total cost of ownership (TCO) Nonproduct

17. Predictions: “HPAQ” Prediction Probability • Deal goes through .4 • Compaq EMA disk survives .9 • FSAM prevails over ENSA .8 • VersaStor lives .5 • Market share drops > 2 points .9 • LTO prevails over Super DLT .7 • iSCSI is corporate direction .9

18. Prediction: Compaq Assets Tactics • Focus on external storage • Deliver value-added features • VersaStor architecture • Common packaging • Leverage service, system integration expertise • Buy and build S/W portfolio • Will maintain #1 share in SANs • SAM dominant within base • Compaq market share, revenue base • Technology — depth in clusters, SANs, networks, file systems & R&D • ENSA Strategy • Expand market share • New feature support of non-captive platforms • Sales and marketing • Big Box • Deliver VersaStor • Complete S/W portfolio Challenges Outlook

19. Prediction: EMC Assets Tactics • Aggressive sales and marketing • Rapid development • Partnerships and acquisitions • The EMC architecture(s) • Defend market share (short term) • Gain through new features (long term), especially software, NAS and SAN • Collide with Veritas long term • High margins • R&D budget • Rapid development sales force • Acquisitions and Partners • Market Clout • Maintaining product leadership & margins • Reinvigorated Competitors • Symmetrix, CLARiiON, NAS positioning • Customer relationships • SAM strategy Outlook Challenges

20. Prediction: HDS Assets Tactics • Rebuild distribution channels • Focus on e-commerce • Sell open SAN and SAM • Partner for S/W • Slowly gain market share • Not an SAM architectural leader • Hitachi ownership & investment • Reputation for product reliability • Compatible value-added features • Strategic alliances • HP and Sun distribution • Time to market • Distribution channels • Software • New organization • Developing SAM strategy Outlook Challenges

21. Prediction: Hewlett-Packard Assets Tactics • Account leverage • Hitachi technology • HP value-added software/firmware • Unix and NT solution integration • Open SAN management • Growing storage sales channel • Off-platform awareness/market share • Executing FSAM • Focus on Enterprise IT and xSP • Symmetrix coexistence • Gain credibility for FSAM vision • Acquire • Expand non-HP Unix and NT share • Secure HP-UX market • Eventual SAM dominant, but mostly captive Outlook Challenges

22. Prediction: Sun Microsystems • Storage as a business unit • Focus on storage networks andmodular scaling • Open APIs through Jiro • Solaris-based storage management • Open interoperability • Build credibility as storage vendor • Focus on Sun, weak off • SAM player? Assets Tactics • Worldwide install base • SPARC/Solaris vertical integration • Strong Sun server growth • Build credibility as storage vendor • Focus on Sun, weak off-base sales • Improve execution • Articulate SAM strategy • Resources Challenges Outlook

23. Prediction: IBM/Tivoli Assets Tactics • Global presence • Manufacturing • Sales force • Software Base • iSCSI efforts • IGS • Time to market • Regain market credibility • Organizational turmoil • Profitability • Size and focus • Resources • Articulate SAM strategy • Price • Solutions • Leverage Tivoli products • Open for a price • NAS aggressive • Full Virtualization • Maintain or slightly drop market share through 4Q01 • Staying power • Herding prides • SAM dominant on base Challenges Outlook

24. Prediction: BMC Assets Tactics • Integrate pieces • Solutions • Consolidate development • Begin marketing • Acquire • Dark horse • Steady progress • Incomplete solution • New management • Application-oriented • Many building blocks done • Large installed base • Time to Market • Expanding brand • Marketing • Finish out SAM layers • Resources • Piece parts vs. package • Bigger others Challenges Outlook

25. Prediction: Veritas Assets Tactics • Global presence • Platform neutral • Software base • Large and growing momentum • SAN and virtualization leader • Articulate SAM strategy • Time to market • Too many irons in fire • Culture of fiefdoms • Consistent support • Merging product lines • Partner • Experiment • Acquire • Dominate in SANs • Eventual SAM player • Collide with EMC Outlook Challenges

26. Great Feature Prediction: InterSAN Assets Tactics • Experience with storage networks • Time to market • Nimble • Funded • Product today • Size • Big SAM players • Distribution • Changing hardware plethora • Partners • Total solution • Focus on top down SAM • Involve enterprise and SSP customers • Time to market • Hardware agnostic • Partner • Dark horse with great SAM strategy • Gain traction quickly • Technology will show up in many products • Acquired or acquirer or partner Challenges Outlook

27. Best Practice Gotcha Don’t Forget Recommendations • Think SAM, not SAN • Understand requirements before selecting product/vendor. • Buy full-featured storage only if you needthe features. • Focus on software and architecture as differentiation andhighest impact. • Include non-product criteria in selecting vendors. • Users must balance vendors’ broader integrated solutions against lockouts.

28. Questions? Storage 2002: Predictions for When Networlds Collide Nick Allen VP and Research Director Gartner, Inc.