Regional Accessibility in Europe
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Regional Accessibility in Europe The Impact of Transport Infrastructure 1957 - 2012. Dirk Stelder University of Groningen www.regroningen.nl/stelder. Joint work with Faculty of Spatial Sciences: Peter Groote, Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder Background Construction

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Regional Accessibility in Europe

The Impact of Transport Infrastructure 1957 - 2012

Dirk StelderUniversity of Groningenwww.regroningen.nl/stelder


Joint work with Faculty of Spatial Sciences: Peter Groote, Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

  • Background

  • Construction

  • Accessibility concepts

  • Results


Background
Background Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

  • Accessibility and economic growth

  • Transport costs and regional competitiveness

  • (pre)-evaluation of infrastructure investment

  • EU Cohesion Policy: 50% spent on infrastructure projects (Crescenzi & Rodríguez-Pose, 2008).

  • EU research funding: evaluation tools and models of infrastructure policy assessment

    • IASON (Tavassy, 2004)

    • SASI (Spiekermann & Wegener, 2008)

    • HERMIN (Bradley, J. & G. Untiedt, 2012)

    • TRANSTOOLS (Ibanez-Rivas, 2010)

    • QUEST (Varga & in ‘t Veld, 2011)

    • RHOMOLO (Brandsma et. al., 2013)


Background Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

Need for

  • indirect effects and network externalities OECD (2002)

  • externalities and market potential Ottaviano (2008)

    • Not captured by CBA, macro production functions or spatial stand-alone indicators

  • qualified network data on Dijover time (not crow-fly distance)

  • ex post studies

    Empirical literature

  • to a large extent ex ante, if ex post, on specific project evaluations

    • TGV, Great Belt Bridge, Chunnel

      Network datasets

  • Trains: some time series

  • Roads: only today


Background Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

Dijon (road) networks is wordwide free available

  • Googlemaps, route planners etc.

  • Academic relevance limited: the implicit network is a black box, no alternative cost specifications

    Only today

  • Navigation/mapping companies have no interest in keeping outdated networks online

  • Historical digital network archives scarce

  • Even printed road maps are scarcely archived: try to find a road map of 2000

    Reverse data problem

  • In stead of time series with publication time lags for recent years we have information for today without time series

  • We know the travel time between Amsterdam and Berlin now but not for last year, 2000 or 1990


Background Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

EU project 2012-2013 financed by DG Regio/Eurostat

  • University of Groningen

    • Faculty of Economics and Business

    • Faculty of Spatial Sciences

  • Built digital road networks for 1955, 1970 ,1980, 1990, 2000, 2012

  • Open source

    • free available

    • open to user (re)coding

  • Database online September 2013


Construction
Construction Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

  • Digital scanning of historical road maps

  • (re) build historical routeplanners

  • Coverage European continent

  • Minimum 4 road classifications

  • Minimum scale 1: 1.250:0000

  • Consistency over time

    • coverage

    • detail

    • downgrading


1957 Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

1956 1: 2.500.000

1957 1: 2.500.000


1970 1: 3.000.000 Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

1970

1970 1: 1.000.000


1980 – 2000 1: 3.000.000 Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

1980 - 2000

1980 – 2000

1: 1.000.000


2012 Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

2012 1: 800.000


Accessibility concepts
Accessibility concepts Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

“relative nearness or proximity of one place or person to all other places and persons” Hansen (1959)

A function f(a,b) with a being the activity to be reached elsewhere and b indicating the costs to reach that activity

(1) Ai (t) = ∑j Pj (t) Dij(t)-βReilly (1931)

Other specifications like negative exponential e-β Dijnot used because of scale dependencies to Dij

Spatial dimension i = cities > 50.000

Internal distance Dii set to average distance (O/)/2between two agents inside a circle with radius r


Accessibility concepts1
Accessibility Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelderconcepts

Relative accessibility

(2)ai (t)= Ai (t) / ∑j Aj (t)

  • Eliminates data heterogeneity over time

  • A hypothetical system-wide homogenous improvement in infrastructure Dij(t) = λDij(t-1) with λ < 1leads to no change in ai

  • Network effects only; no general trends in transport costs

  • (neo)classical competition: equilibrium may not change, no effect spatial policy

  • Monopolistic competition: equilibrium may shift towards agglomeration/dispersion

    Change in relative accessibility

    (3)αi (t) = ai (t) / ai (t-1)


Accessibility concepts2
Accessibility Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelderconcepts

Network accessibility

(4) Ni =∑j ≠ i Dij

(5) ni = ∑j Nj / Ni

(6) νi (t) = ni (t) / ni (t-1)

Pure unweighted network effects without potential


Coding
Coding Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder


Results
Results Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder


Results Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder


Ranking of countries by accessibility change 1970 2012
Ranking of countries by accessibility change 1970 - 2012 Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder


Concluding
Concluding Marien de Bakker, Jimme Zoete and Luuk Stelder

Historical archives of networks need policy support

Enable ex post studies

Open source essential

Backward updating and improvement


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