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Livestock Dollars and Sense

Explore the current state of the cattle and beef market in 2019, including peaking inventories, slow growth in production, strong demand, trade issues, and market uncertainties. Analysis and data provided by Oklahoma State University.

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Livestock Dollars and Sense

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  1. Livestock Dollars and Sense Derrell S. Peel Breedlove Professor of Agribusiness and Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist Oklahoma State University

  2. 2019 Cattle and Beef Market Issues • Cattle inventories peaking • Continued but slow growth in beef production • Continued strong beef demand is key • Domestic and international • Signs of weakness? • Feed market uncertainty • Feedgrains • Hay • External threats continue • Slowing economic growth in U.S. and global • Trade Issues

  3. 2019 Cattle and Beef Market Issuescont. • Trade Issues • USMCA • CP-TPP (continues without U.S.) • Japan • China • E.U./Brexit • ??

  4. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  5. Calf Seasonal PricesOklahoma, 2000-2017

  6. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  7. Feeder Steer Seasonal PricesOklahoma, 2000-2017

  8. Heifer Discount to Steer Price2000-2016, Oklahoma Auctions

  9. Price-Weight RelationshipMedium/Large No. 1 Steers, Oklahoma

  10. Price-Weight RelationshipMedium/Large No. 1 Steers, Oklahoma

  11. Spatial Feeder Cattle Prices Washington 450-500: 98 % 550-600: 99 % 650-700: 97 % 750-800: 95 % North Dakota 450-500: 101 % 550-600: 102 % 650-700: 102 % 750-800: 100 % Montana 450-500: 100 % 550-600: 102 % 650-700: 100 % 750-800: 97 % South Dakota 450-500: 104 % 550-600: 105 % 650-700: 104 % 750-800: 102 % Wyoming 450-500: 104 % 550-600: 103 % 650-700: 103 % 750-800: 100 % Same colored states have similar price levels Iowa 450-500: 103 % 550-600: 104 % 650-700: 103 % 750-800: 102 % Nebraska 450-500: 106 % 550-600: 107 % 650-700: 105 % 750-800: 103 % Feeder Cattle Prices Decrease in All Directions with Increasing Distance from Nebraska Kansas 450-500: 103 % 550-600: 103 % 650-700: 101 % 750-800: 101 % Missouri 450-500: 100 % 550-600: 101 % 650-700: 100 % 750-800: 100 % Tennessee 450-500: 90 % 550-600: 91 % 650-700: 90 % 750-800: 89 % Oklahoma BASE MARKET (100 %) New Mexico 450-500: 99 % 550-600: 97 % 650-700: 94 % 750-800: 93 % Georgia 450-500: 90 % 550-600: 89 % 650-700: 87 % 750-800: 85 % Alabama 450-500: 93 % 550-600: 93 % 650-700: 91 % 750-800: 89 % Texas 450-500: 97 % 550-600: 97 % 650-700: 97 % 750-800: 97 %

  12. Steer Price, Total Value and Value of Gain July 26, 2019, 7 Mkt. Ave., Oklahoma

  13. Price-Weight RelationshipMedium/Large No. 1 Steers, Oklahoma

  14. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  15. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  16. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  17. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  18. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  19. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  20. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  21. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  22. All Cattle and Calves, U.S.Since 1867

  23. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Analysis by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  24. Beef Cow Inventory by CycleU.S., January 1 Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC

  25. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  26. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  27. Data Source: USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  28. Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  29. Cattle SlaughterFederally Inspected, 1000 Head Latest data: July 13, 2019

  30. Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  31. 2019 Meat Production and Consumption 2019 forecast LMIC, July 5 2019

  32. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  33. Data Source: USDA-ERS May, 2019

  34. Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-AMS & USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC May, 2019

  35. Commercial Beef Production >>> Beef Cow Inventory >>> Livestock Marketing Information Center Data Source: USDA-NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC and Derrell Peel 2019, 2020 Production, 2020 inventory forecast

  36. Data Source: USDA-FAS, Apr 2019 Livestock Marketing Information Center

  37. Data Source: USDA-FAS, Apr 2019

  38. China: Beef Imports

  39. Data Source: USDA-FAS

  40. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  41. U.S. Beef Exports YTD: Jan-May

  42. U.S. Beef Imports YTD: Jan-May

  43. Data Source: USDA-AMS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  44. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  45. Data Source: USDA-ERS & USDA-FAS Livestock Marketing Information Center

  46. Data Source: USDA-AMS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC Livestock Marketing Information Center

  47. 2019-2020 Cattle Price Forecasts LMIC, July 28, 2019

  48. The Weekly Email NewsletterFrom OSU Animal Science and Agricultural Economics • Send Email to derrell.peel@okstate.edu

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