Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP)

1. Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP) Ken Mylne Chair DPFS (Data-processing and Forecasting Systems) & Chair SWFDP SG WMO; WDS

2. Vision for improving severe weather forecasting and warning services in developing countries“NMHSs in developing countries are able to implement and maintain reliable and effective routine forecasting and severe weather warning programmes through enhanced use of NWP products and delivery of timely and authoritative forecasts and early warnings, thereby contributing to reducing the risk of disasters from natural hazards.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2007 and 2011) Implemented through the Severe Weather Forecasting Development Project (SWFDP) “Implementation of a “Cascading Forecasting Process”, an approach that provides improved access to, and effective use by forecasters of existing and newly developed NWP/EPS products made available by advanced GDPFS Centres, national forecasting and warning services have improved significantly, with increased lead-times and greater reliability.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2011)

3. SWFDP Main Goals WMO • Improve Severe Weather Forecasting through the “Cascading Forecasting Process” (Global to Regional to National) • Improve lead-time of Warnings • Improve interaction of NMHSs with users • Identify areas for improvement and requirements for the Basic Systems • Improve the skill of products from WMO Operational centres through feedback

4. SWFDP Cascading Forecasting Process User communities, including Disaster Management authorities Global Centres RSMC Pretoria NMCs 5 Global NWPcentres to provide available NWP/EPS and sat-based products, including in the form of probabilities, cut to the project window frame; Regional centres to interpret information received from global centres, prepare daily guidance products (out to day-5) for NMCs, run limited-area model to refine products, maintain RSMC Web site, liaise with the participating NMCs; NMCs to issue alerts, advisories, severe weather warnings; to liaise with user communities, and to contribute feedback and evaluation of the project; NMCs have access to all products, and maintained responsibility and authority over national warnings and services.

5. SWFDP Guidance Products from RSMC Pretoria RSMC analysis forecast information Guidance every day for the next 5 days Hazards: heavy rain, strong wind, high seas and swell, severe winter weather Guidance info made available through dedicated Webpage to NMCs Links to RSMC La Réunion TC forecasting

6. SWFDP – Eastern Africa – Lake Victoria (status/progress) WMO • Focus on: • Strong winds • Heavy precipitation • Hazardous waves (Indian Ocean and Lake Victoria) • Dry spells • Users: general public, disaster management, media, agriculture and fisheries • Domains: • 5E – 55E; 30N – 25S (for monitoring, analyzing, predicting and verifying the various severe weather events) • 31E – 36E; 2N – 4S (for the Lake Victoria) • Global Centres: ECMWF, UKMO, NOAA/NCEP (NWP guidance material) • MSG satellite products (EUMETSat products) • Regional Centre: RSMC Nairobi, supported by TMA, UKMO and DWD • National Met. Centres: Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, Burundi, Rwanda and Ethiopia • Started September 2011

7. Visionforthe SWFDP as an end-to-end, cross-programme collaborative activity (led by the GDPFS)“that engages all WMO programmes that concern the real-time prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards, through their respective technical commissions: from observations, to information exchange, to delivery of services to the public and a range of targeted applications/user sectors, education and training, capacity development and support to LDCs, and to the transfer of relevant promising research outputs into operations.” (World Meteorological Congress, 2011) WMO Strategic Priorities • Disaster Risk Reduction • Capacity Development • GFCS - Climate change adaptation

8. SWFDP Regional Projects WMO • Southern Africa (ongoing; 16 countries; RSMC Pretoria, RSMC-TC La Réunion) • Southwest Pacific Islands (ongoing; 9 Island States; RSMC Wellington, RSMC-TC Fiji) • Eastern Africa (ongoing, 6 countries; RSMC Nairobi, RFSC Dar) • Southeast Asia (in development, 5 countries; RFSC Hanoi) • Bay of Bengal (in development, 6 countries; RSMC-TC New Delhi) • WMO global and regional operational centres (e.g. RSMCs) • 42 NMHSs of developing countries (29 of which are LDCs/SIDSs) • Several WMO programmes (i.e. GDPFS, PWS, TCP, DRR, MMO, AgM, SP, ETR, CD, LDC, RP, and WWRP) and technical commissions (i.e. CBS, CAgM, CHy, JCOMM, and CAS)

9. Tailored Forecasting Products for Specialized Applications AgM, MMO, AeM, WCP, etc. Flash Flood Guidance HWR Feedback and Verification General Public, media, disaster management authorities General Public, media, disaster management authorities PWS, HWR, WCP PWS Global NWP/EPS and Sat-based products National Met Centres (Forecast/Warning Bulletins) Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs) Global Centres LAM & Guidance Products (risk/probability) Specific User Sectors (Agriculture, Marine, Aviation, etc.) AgM, MMO, AeM, etc. RSMCs-TC TCP GDPFS WIGOS, WIS SP Capacity Development (CD), including Training (ETR) WWRP Satellite Imagery and Tools Observing and information systems Research Projects SWFDP: a cross-cutting activity involving multiple TCs and Progs, concerning prediction of hydro-meteorological hazards Regional Centre (RSMCs, RFSC, RCCs)

10. SWFDP Regional Centres WMO • Sustain/strengthen existing RSMCs • Expanding the role of existing RSMCs-TC • Establish new regional centres • Infrastructure (development and maintaining the Website) • Global and regional guidance • Global and Regional Training Desks (in addition to the annual training) • National IPs (uptake of NWP/EPS and sat-based products into weather forecasting daily routines of the forecasters and user engagement) • Continuous development - introduce new products and increase use of NWP/EPS in applications of meteorology (Cascading Forecasting Process) Challenging!

11. SWFDP – improving forecasts and warnings • Severe weather: heavy rain, strong winds • High-impact focus (flash-flooding, damaging winds, near-shore damaging waves, landslides); • Forecast range: up to day-5 (increased lead-time) • Forecasting (GDPFS), warning services (PWS) • Forecast Verification • Phase-in other developments • Training for forecasters and disaster managers • Technological gaps: • Tropical convection, rapid on-set, localized events • Lack of forecasting tools in the very-short-range (< 12h) • Little or no radar coverage, few real-time observations • Internet-based

12. SWFDP – Cooperating with Research… incorporating promising research outputs into real-time SWFDP demonstrations … • WWRP • GIFS - TIGGE - Tropical Cyclone track; extreme events (wind, precip, temps; soon to be near-real-time) • Forecast Verification Research (e.g. SWFDP – Eastern Africa) • Nowcasting Research – very short-range forecasting (< 12h; possibly SWFDP-SeAsia, SWFDP-Eastern Africa) • Sub-seasonal forecasting (e.g. SWFDP-Eastern Africa) • Public weather services & DRR, with SERA

13. SWFDP: • Southern Africa • Eastern Africa • Southwest Pacific • Southeast Asia GIFS products for SWFDP (MRI-JMA)

14. Global Hazard Map Summary map to track features through days of forecast Daily map to overlay different hazards and vulnerability layers

15. Future directions and role of the SWFDP • More countries, new regions (over 100 countries: developing and least developed countries) ~ 12 RSMCs • Hydro-meteorological hazards • Sector-specific hazards (e.g. agriculture, marine, etc.) • Beyond day-5 • Vehicle for introducing promising R&D • Cross-programme guidance • Regular budget and extrabudgetary resourses • Project Office Ultimate Goal: Establishing a National Severe Weather Warnings Programme for every Member of WMO

16. Thank you for your attention • DISCUSSION

17. SWFDP – Lessons learnt WMO • Successful recipe – • real benefits to developing and least developed countries • High impact, cost effective • Visible operational results – • increased visibility, credibility and value of meteorological services • Management framework at regional level (partnerships): collective needs, motivation, buy-in, ownership, continuous learning • Accelerated technology transfer to less capable national centres through the “Cascading Forecasting Process” • Increased role of the regional centres in downscaling and tailoring products for practical use by NMHSs • Model/framework can be applied to any time-scales and a range of applications/user sectors

18. SWFDP – Resources WMO • Regular budget: GDPFS financially supported the SWFDP-related events, including training, while a number of WMO Programmes (e.g. ETR, PWS, TCP, SAT, AgM, WWRP) have collaboratively provided limited funds to support expert participation at some of the SWFDP-related meetings • Support from advanced global centres that provide NWP/EPS and satellite-based products, and the backbone roles played by the regional centres are critical components for the implementation of the SWFDP, which represent in-kind contributions by WMO Members • Extra-budgetary funds from WMO Members, and donor agencies (e.g. World Bank, etc.) • Staff: DPFS (responsible for the overall project), with the collaboration of PWS and AgM