Risk is the possibility of suffering loss, injury, disadvantage, or destruction.
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Risk is the possibility of suffering loss, injury, disadvantage, or destruction. [Webster's Third New International Dictionary 1981] Definition of Risk Risk Characteristics Uncertainty a risk may or may not happen. There is some probability of it occurring

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Definition of Risk

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Risk Characteristics disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Uncertainty

    • a risk may or may not happen. There is some probability of it occurring

    • If it is inevitable, it is not a risk

  • Loss

    • a risk has unwanted consequences

    • If there is no impact, its not a risk

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Some Risk Wisdom disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Be a good risk manager or you will become a good crisis manager (SITC)

  • If you don't actively attack the risks, they will actively attack you. (Tom Gilb)

  • Projects that don't manage risk are at risk (ICE Corp)

  • Risk management is not free; prepare to commit resources, define a risk management process, and make a risk reserve available.

  • Risk in itself is not bad; risk is essential to progress (Roger Van Scoy)

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Risk Management Goals disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Risks are systematically identified, analyzed, quantified, tracked and mitigated

  • Risk management information is used to make organizational and process improvements aimed at anticipating and eliminating all the causes of risk

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  • Risk Management Plan disadvantage, or destruction.

    • Assign responsibility for Risk Management

    • Identify risks

    • Analyze, measure, and prioritize risks

    • Mitigate risks and measure effect of the mitigation

    • Repeat process

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SEI Software Risk Management Process disadvantage, or destruction.

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Risk Identification : Activities disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Discovery

    • Historical data, experience, risk taxonomy, call for risks, brainstorming, risk indicators

  • Grouping

    • Eliminate redundant risks; Combine related risks; Link dependent risks

    • Schedule/budget, new technology/obsolescence, etc.

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  • Risk Indicators disadvantage, or destruction.

    • Unknown resources

    • Lack of experience

    • Lack of Information

    • Complexity

    • Lack of control

    • Instability

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Software Engineering Institute Risk Taxonomy disadvantage, or destruction.

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SEI Taxonomy-Based Questionnaire Sample disadvantage, or destruction.

C. Program Constraints

1. Resources

  • Schedule (Is the schedule inadequate or unstable?)

  • Is the estimation based on historical data?

  • Has the method worked well in the past?

  • Is there anything for which adequate schedule was not planned?

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From disadvantage, or destruction. Jones, Capers. Assessment and Control of Software Risks.

Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: PTR Prentice-Hall, 1994

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Some Observed CSE System Problems / Risks disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Lack of continuity in staff

  • Lack of executive commitment

  • Lack of cooperation between State agencies

  • Inadequate or intermittent funding

  • Intermittent development efforts

  • Poorly understood legacy systems

  • Contractor non-performance

  • Many external interfaces / Poorly defined external interfaces

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Some More Observed CSE System Problems / Risks disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Lack of domain expertise

  • Management review/decision cycle is slower than expected

  • Non-technical third-party tasks take longer than expected (budget approval, equipment purchase approval, legal reviews, etc.)

  • Lack of accurate status reporting

  • Lack of user input

  • Requirements are poorly defined and unstable

  • Lack of quantitative historical data

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Risk Analysis: Activities disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Grouping

    • Eliminate redundant risks; Combine related risks; Link dependent risks

    • One possible grouping - Organizational, Process, Product

    • Schedule/budget, new technology/obsolescence, etc.

  • Quantification

    • Establish Measurement scale

    • Measure probability, consequence, time frame

    • Risk Exposure = Likelihood x Consequence

  • Ranking

    • Order of likelihood, consequence, exposure, time frame

  • Identifying Triggers

    • Define scenarios or conditions that indicate occurrence of a risk is imminent

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Quantifying Consequence disadvantage, or destruction.

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Quantifying Probability disadvantage, or destruction.

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Iso-Risk Contour Chart disadvantage, or destruction.

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Simple Risk Exposure Chart disadvantage, or destruction.

High-3

Probability

Medium-2

Low -1

Low -1

Medium -2

High -3

Impact

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  • Risk Mitigation disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Prioritize risks by triggers, exposure and timeframe. Deal with the most critical first.

  • All non-negligible risks must have mitigation strategies.

    • Obtain more information as necessary to eliminate or reduce uncertainty

    • Document decisions and strategies

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Risk Mitigation : Activities disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Risk Reduction

    • Take action to reduce risk -hold training, add resources, reduce scope of project, etc.

  • Risk Contingency

    • Have resources (money, staff, equipment, etc.) available to handle occurrence of risk

  • Risk Transfer

    • Get someone else to accept the risk – not recommended – if done, keep tracking the risk

  • Risk Acceptance

    • Live with it – appropriate only for low consequence risks

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Risk Tracking : Activities disadvantage, or destruction.

  • Monitor risk triggers

    • Watch for signs of a risk occurring – give early warning

  • Monitor overall project risk (Risk Referent)

    • Is the total risk (sum of all risk exposure) decreasing as expected ?

  • Notify stakeholders

    • Let stakeholders know the risk is happening

  • Collect information on all risks

    • Update risk database

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Risk Tracking Form disadvantage, or destruction.

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Turn Risk Management into Process Improvement !

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Risk Management process weakness?

Process Improvement

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What Is Needed For Risk Management To Work? process weakness?

  • Risk Management Policy and Commitment - Establishes the framework that enables Risk Management to work

  • Risk Management Coordinator - Someone with authority to plan, implement and support the Risk Management process

  • Risk Management Plan - Defines the Risk Management processes and roles and responsibilities.

  • Continuous Independent Risk Assessment - ongoing, unbiased evaluation of project's cost, schedule, technical and performance risks

  • Risk Management Database – A place to store, analyze, prioritize, report and monitor risk data throughout the project life cycle

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Links process weakness?

Software Engineering Institute

http://www.sei.cmu.edu

National Human Services IT Resource Center

http://www.acf.hhs.gov/nhsitrc/

Texas Department of Information Resources

http://www.dir.state.tx.us/eod/qa/risk/index.htm

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