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Technology Horizons:. Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030. Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm (Former) Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force Air Force Pentagon (4E130) Washington, D.C. 25 March 2011. 25 Mar 2011. ADRC Presentation. Cleared for Public Release.

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Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030

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Technology Horizons:

Vision for Air Force Science & Technology During 2010-2030

Dr. Werner J.A. Dahm

(Former) Chief Scientist of the U.S. Air Force

Air Force Pentagon (4E130)

Washington, D.C.

25 March 2011

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Ten Technical Directorates Comprise the Air Force Research Laboratory

Directed Energy

Materials & Manufacturing

AFOSR

Munitions

SpaceVehicles

Human Effectiveness

Air Vehicles

Sensors

Information

Propulsion

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Distribution of Air Force S&T FundingAmong Technical Directorates

$1.9B Direct AFRL funds

+ $2.2B Customer funds

+ 324M Congress adds

$4.5B total AFRL

6.1, 6.2, 6.3

Amounts shown are $2B/yr Air Force core funds; does not include

$2B/yr customer funds

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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U.S. Air Force “Technology Horizons”

SecAF / CSAF Tasking Letter

Terms of Reference (TOR)


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Overview of Air Force S&T Visions

“Technology Horizons” is the next in the succession of major S&T vision studies conducted at the Headquarters Air Force level that define key S&T investments over the next 10-20 years

7

1

3

6

Technology

Horizons

(2010)

New World

Vistas

(1995)

Project

Forecast

(1964)

Toward New Horizons

(1945)

High-impact studies

Woods Hole

Summer Study

(1958)

New

Horizons II

(1975)

Project

Forecast II

(1986)

4

5

2

Low-impact studies

2010+

1940s

1950s

1960s

1970s

1980s

1990s

2000s

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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“Technology Horizons” Study Phases

Mar 09

Jun 09

Oct 09

Dec 09

Feb 2010

“Technology Horizons”

2010+

Working

Phase 2

Working

Phase 3

Working

Phase 4

Implementation

Phase 5

Planning

Phase 1

Dissemination of

Results and

Implementation

Air, Space, Cyber

Domain Working

Groups

Cross-Domain

Working

Group

Findings,

Conclusions &

Recommendations

Objectives,

Tasking, and

Organization,

Report and Outbrief

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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10+10 Technology-to-Capability Process

Cross-Domain

Air

STEP 2

STEP 1

Future U.S.

Capabilities

Space

10-Years-Forward

Science & Technology

Projection

10-Years-Forward

Capabilities

Projection

Cyber

S&T

Advances

in 10 Years

Resulting

Capabilities

in 20 Years

Potential

Adversary

Capabilities

Capabilities

Today

(2010)

(2020)

(2030)

Cyber

10-Years-Back

Science & Technology

Investment Need

10-Years-Back

Counter-Capability

Technology Need

U.S.

Counter-

Capabilities

Space

STEP 4

STEP 3

Air

Cross-Domain

“10+10 Technology-to-Capability” process gives a deductive 20-year horizon view


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Air Force S&T Vision for 2010-2030 from “Technology Horizons”

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Overarching Themes That Will VectorAir Force S&T During 2010-2030


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Potential Capability Areas (1/2)

PCA1:Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems

PCA2:Automated Cyber Vulnerability Assessments

PCA3:Decision-Quality Prediction of Behavior

PCA4:Augmentation of Human Performance

PCA5:Constructive Environments for Discovery and Training

PCA6:Adaptive Flexibly-Autonomous Systems

PCA7:Frequency-Agile Spectrum Utilization

PCA8:Dominant Spectrum Warfare Operations

PCA9:Precision Navigation/Timing in GPS-Denied Environments

PCA10:Next-Generation High-Bandwidth Secure Communications

PCA11:Persistent Near-Space Communications Relays

PCA12:Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors

PCA13:High-Altitude Long-Endurance ISR Airships

PCA14:Prompt Theater-Range ISR/Strike Systems

PCA15:Fractionated, Survivable, Remotely-Piloted Systems


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Potential Capability Areas (2/2)

PCA16:Direct Forward Air Delivery and Resupply

PCA17:Energy-Efficient Partially Buoyant Cargo Airlifters

PCA18:Fuel-Efficient Hybrid Wing-Body Aircraft

PCA19:Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines

PCA20:Embedded Diagnostic/Prognostic Subsystems

PCA21:Penetrating Persistent Long-Range Strike

PCA22:High-Speed Penetrating Cruise Missile

PCA23:Hyperprecision Low-Collateral Damage Munitions

PCA24:Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense

PCA25:Enhanced Underground Strike with Conventional Munitions

PCA26:Reusable Airbreathing Access-to-Space Launch

PCA27:Rapidly Composable Small Satellites

PCA28:Fractionated/Distributed Space Systems

PCA29:Persistent Space Situational Awareness

PCA30:Improved Orbital Conjunction Prediction


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Mapping Potential Capability Areas to Air Force Service Core Functions

Potential Capability Areas (PCA1-PCA30) span over all 12 Air Force Service Core Functions (SCFs)

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Technology Areas Identified for Each Potential Capability Area (e.g., PCA1)

Ad hoc networks

Virtual machine architectures

Agile hypervisors

Polymorphic networks

Agile networks

Pseudorandom network recomposition

Laser communications

Secure RF links

Frequency-agile RF systems

Spectral mutability

Dynamic spectrum access

Quantum key distribution

Complex adaptive distributed networks

Complex adaptive systems

Complex system dynamics

V&V for complex adaptive systems

  • PCA1: Inherently Intrusion-Resilient Cyber Systems

  • Autonomous systems

  • Autonomous reasoning

  • Resilient autonomy

  • Collaborative/cooperative control

  • Decision support tools

  • Automated software generation

  • Distributed sensing networks

  • Sensor data fusion

  • Signal identification and recognition

  • Cyber offense

  • Cyber defense

  • Cyber resilience

  • Advanced computing architectures

  • Complex environment visualization

  • Massive analytics

  • Automated reasoning and learning

13

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Dramatically Increased Use of Highly Adaptable Autonomous Systems

  • Capability increases, manpower efficiencies, and cost reductions are possible through far greater use of autonomous systems

  • Increase in degree of autonomy and range of systems and processes where autonomous reasoning and control can be applied

  • Adaptive autonomy can offer time-domain operational advantages over adversaries using human planning and decision loops

  • S&T to establish “certifiable” trust in highly adaptible autonomous systems is a key to enabling this transformation

  • Potential adversaries may gain benefits from fielding such systems without any burden of establishing certifiable “trust in autonomy”

  • As one of the greatest beneficiaries of such autonomous systems, the Air Force must lead in developing the underlying S&T basis

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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High-Altitude Long-Endurance (HALE) Unconventional Air Vehicle Systems

  • New unmanned aircraft systems (VULTURE) and airships (ISIS) can remain aloft for years

  • Delicate lightweight structures can survive low-altitude winds if launch can be chosen

  • Enabled by solar cells powering lightweight batteries or regenerative fuel cell systems

  • Large airships containing football field size radars give extreme resolution/persistence

DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept

DARPA VULTURE HALE Aircraft Concept

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Augmentation of Human Performance to Better Match Users With Technology

  • Natural human capacities are becoming increasingly mismatched to data volumes, processing capabilities, and decision speeds that are offered or demanded by technology

  • S&T to augment human performance will be needed to gain benefits of new technologies

  • May come from increased use of autonomous systems, improved man-machine interfaces, or direct augmentation of humans

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Technologies to Enable Freedom of Operations in Contested Environments

  • S&T advances are needed in three key areas to enable increased freedom of operations in contested or denied environments

  • Basic and early applied research are needed to support development of these capabilities

  • Technologies for increased cyber resilience

    • e.g., massive virtualization, highly polymorphic networks, agile hypervisors

  • Technologies to augment or supplant PNT in GPS-denied environments

    • e.g., cold-atom (Bose-Einstein condensate) INS systems, chip-scale atomic clocks

  • Technologies to support dominance in electromagnetic spectrum warfare

    • e.g., dynamic spectrum access, spectral mutability, advanced RF apertures

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Processing-Enabled Intelligent SensorsFractionated Composable UAV Systems

Processing-Enabled Intelligent ISR Sensors

  • Current massive data flow from ISR platforms is creating tremendous PED manpower need

  • Full-motion video (FMV) analysis is growing; even more with Gorgon State and ARGUS-IS

  • Technologies needed to enable cueing-level processing before data leaves the sensor

  • UAV system fractionation is a relatively new architecture enabled by technology advances

  • Allows complete system to be separated into functional elements cooperating as a system

  • Common platform having element-specific payload enabled lower cost and attritability

  • Permits mission-specific composition of systems from lower-cost common elements

  • Low levels of redundancy among elements dramatically increases system survivability

Fractionated Survivable Remote-Piloted Systems

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Other Top Potential Capability Areas

PCA19: Next-Generation High-Efficiency Turbine Engines

PCA24: Directed Energy for Tactical Strike/Defense

PCA27: Rapidly Composable Small Satellites

PCA30: Persistent Space Situational Awareness

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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Closing Remarks & Implementation

25 Mar 2011

ADRC Presentation

Cleared for Public Release


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