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AAII San Francisco Meeting Saturday March 20, 2010 Presented by: Tom Kopas pringturner

The Secular and Cyclical Outlook for Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities. Since 2000 a “Lost Decade” For Investors… Are you Prepared for Another “Lost Decade?”. AAII San Francisco Meeting Saturday March 20, 2010 Presented by: Tom Kopas www.pringturner.com. U.S. Stock Prices. 2. 1. 3. 4.

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AAII San Francisco Meeting Saturday March 20, 2010 Presented by: Tom Kopas pringturner

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  1. The Secular and Cyclical Outlook for Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities Since 2000 a “Lost Decade” For Investors… Are you Prepared for Another “Lost Decade?” AAII San Francisco Meeting Saturday March 20, 2010 Presented by: Tom Kopas www.pringturner.com

  2. U.S. Stock Prices 2 1 3 4 www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group

  3. 16-years/62% decline/ 4 recessions 19-years/67% decline/ 4 recessions 19-years/69% decline/ 6 recessions ? 10-years/43% decline/ 2 recessions ?

  4. www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group Only Halfway Through Secular Bear Completed Secular Bear Target Area 2016-2020

  5. U.S. Stock Prices (Inflation Adjusted) www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group

  6. 2000 1966 1929 1901 Price Moves in Excess of 25% 2 2 6 4 2 4 4 2 4 6 3 1 1 7 3 5 3 1 5 1 3 5 7

  7. Key Points: Secular Trend for Stocks • Long Periods of Alternating Good and Bad Performance • Secular Trends Change at Extreme Valuation Levels • Currently Halfway through our 4th Secular Bear Market • Be Aware of the Secular Bull Market for Commodities • Capitalize on Cyclical Stock Market Opportunities (Today) • Understanding Secular Environment is Key to Success

  8. Pring Turner Investment Approach Financial markets are linked in a logical, rational, and sequential relationship to business activity. Financial markets have been tracking these business cycle sequences for over 150 years.

  9. The Random Noise of Economic News www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9

  10. Money Supply Bond Prices ? Stock Prices Economy Commodities www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9

  11. Key Points: Investing Around the Business Cycle • Markets are Linked in a Logical, Rational, Sequential Relationship • For over 150 Years, Markets have Tracked Business Cycle Sequences • During Secular Bear Markets Economy in Recession More Often • Pring Turner Organizes the Business Cycle into 6 stages • Just Entered Stage 4 • Good for Stocks and Inflation Sensitive Securities • Bad for Bonds • Business Cycle Drives Profitable Asset Allocation Decisions

  12. 3 % Secular Bear Market 7 30 Year Secular Bull Market 12 15 % Bearish March 2010 www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 54 78 03 9 10

  13. (Inverted) Breaking Uptrend? 3 % 7 12 15 % www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group

  14. www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group

  15. Commodity Prices Inflation Barometer is at 100%. www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group 9 10

  16. Key Points: Secular Trend Bonds/Commodities • Bonds Have Been in a Secular Bull Market for Almost 30 years • Bond Owners Beware: Secular Trend is at a Critical Juncture • Cyclically Bonds are Vulnerable to Interest Rate and Inflation risks • Small Rise in Interest Rates can Lead to Significant Losses in Bonds • Commodities in Secular Uptrend  Adds to Risk in Bonds • Opportunities in Inflation Sensitive Securities

  17. Tactics to Protect and Grow Wealth March 2010 Secular Trend at Critical Juncture www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group

  18. Thanks for Listening… You are welcome to visit our website www.pringturner.com for research updates

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