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2005-12-20. ????????????. 2. ????. ?????????????????????????????????????(ERP, 2002, 2005)?????????????????????. 2005-12-20. ????????????. 3. ????????????????????????? ???????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????. 2005-12-20. ????????????. 4. ????. ????(???????)??????????? ???????????????????????????????????? ??????????????????PAYG?FS????????????? .
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1. ???:??? ???
? ?:?????????? ?????????????
2. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 2 ???? ??????????????????????????????
???????(ERP, 2002, 2005)
??????
???????
????????
3. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 3 ?????????????????????????
???????????????????,?????????????????????????????
???????????,????????????????
4. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 4 ???? ????(???????)???????????
????????????????????????????????????
??????????????????PAYG?FS?????????????
5. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 5 ????????? 1?????:
?????(pay-as-you-go, PAYG)
??????????????????????????
???(funded system,FS)
?????????,???????????????????????????,?????,????????????????????????
6. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 6 2??????????????????????,???????:
??????(Defined benefit plans,DB)
??????(Defined contribution plans,DC)
7. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 7
8. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 8 3. ?????????????,????:
????(Flat-rate)??????
????(earnings-related)??????
9. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 9 4. PAYG ????? :
Samuelson(1954) ?????????PAYG ?????????????????
???????????????
????????????????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????????,????,???????????????????????????????????,???????
10. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 10 ?????
????
???????????
(Arron Condition )
????
????
11. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 11 PAYG?????????? ?????????
???????,????????????????
????
????????????????????????????????????????????????(??,2000,P277)
12. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 12 5. FS ????? :
??????????????
??????????,?????????????,?????????????????????
???????????????????????,??????????????(?????+????)
????????????????,?????????,????????????????????????????????
13. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 13 FS ?????? ????
???????????
???????
???????
?????????
14. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 14 FS ??????? ?????????
????????????,??????????????,????????????????????
15. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 15 ??PAYG??????? ??????????????,???????????
??????????,??????????????????????????????????,?????????????
16. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 16 1. ???? Feldstein(1974)???????????????????????(crowding-out effect),?????????????????????????????? ??????????????????????30%-50%;Kotlikoff (1979) ???????????10-21%;Danziger?Haveman and Plotnick(1981) ?????????0-20%?????
17. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 17 Feldstein(1996) ??????????????????,??1992???????$4160?,1971????610??
Coates and Humphreys (1999) ??????Feldstein (1996,1974)???,??????????????
18. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 18 Meguire (2003) ????????Feldstein (1996)????????????,???1992?(1971?)?????????????2800???(220???)??????????????????????1972????????????,????????????????0?
????????????????????????????,??????????,???????????????????????? (Schieber and Shoven ,1999, p. 388)
19. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 19 2002????????????????,?28????????,?24?????????????????????????????????????????????,???????????,??????????(ERP,2002,P79)
2001-2005?????????????????
20. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 20 2. ??????????? Barro(1974) ?????????????????,??????????????????????????,?????????????????,??????????????,?????????????????????(? Barro ??)
21. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 21 Michael Darby(1980) ? Slate(1994)? Kopits & Gotur(1995)? Diamond(1998)????????,??????????????????
Ehrlich and Zhong (1998) ?????????GDP???????????????,??????????????(?????)
22. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 22 Page(1998) ??????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????,??????????????????,????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????
23. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 23 Becker and Barro (1988, p. 18) ??,?????????,PAYG??????????????????
Cigno (1993) ?????????????????????,?????????,????????????????????????????????????????
24. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 24 Yakita (2001) ??,?????????????,???????????????,?????????,???PAYG????????,??????????
25. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 25 3. ??: ?????,?????????????????????????????????,????????????????????,?????????,????????
26. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 26 ????????,?????????????????????????????,????,????????????,??????????????????
???????????????,??????????????????????1,???????,???????????,??????????,?????????????
27. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 27 ????????FS?????????,????????
???????????? ??FS???????
28. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 28 1. ???? Davies & Kuhn(1992),Davies(1995)?????????????????????????
Venti and Wise(1995) ?Poterba, Venti?Wise(1996)??,???80??????????????????(IRAs)?401(k)??,??????????
29. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 29
30. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 30 ????(1997) ??,??????????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????,?????????,???????????????
31. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 31 Cigno et al.(2003 ) ???????????????,???????????????,???????????????????
Cigno and Werding (2003, Chapt. 5) ??????????????(????????????), ??????????????
2002?2004??????????????FS????????
32. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 32 2. ????????????? Munnell(1976) ?Dicks-Mireaux and King(1984) ?????????????????,???????????????
Bernheim and Scholz(1993) ?????????????????, Samwick(1994) ????????????????
33. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 33 Venti and Wise(1995)????????????????????????????????????,????????????????
Kennickell?Sunden(1997) ???????????,??DB????????????????????,?DC??????,?401(k)??,??????????????????
34. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 34 3. ?? ???????,?????????????????????????????????????,??????,??????????????
??????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????,?????,???????????????,???????????
35. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 35 ?????????????????????,???????????????????????????,????????????
???????,??????????????????????????????????????????,????????????????????
FS?????????????????????,??,???????????????
36. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 36 Myles(1995,P446)??,??????????????????,????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,???(??????)????????????????????????????????,??FS ??PAYG?
37. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 37 ????????????????? ????,???????????????????????????????20??????,?????????(Coates and Humphreys,1999)
???????????????????????????,????????????????,????????????????,???????,??????????????(Zhang & Zhang ,2004)
38. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 38 Solo??????:??????????,???????????????
??????L:K??????????:?????????????????????,???????????,??????????,???????,??????????,????????,???????????(Myles,1995,p440-443) ??????????
39. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 39 ?????? ???????????????????????????????????????
Mulligan (1997) ?????????????,?????????????????,?????????????????????????:???????????,?????????????
40. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 40 Zhang (1995) ????????????????,PAYG??????????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????????,?????????,????????????????
(????:????????????,???????????)
41. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 41 Kemnitz & Wigger(2000)????????????????????,???FS??,PAYG????????????????PAYG????????????????????????????,?????????????????,????PAYG??????????????????????????,????????????????????????????????,??????????
42. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 42 de la Croix and Doepke (2003) ????????????????????,??????????????????????????????
Zhang & Zhang (2004)????????????????????????????????????????????,????????,??????????
43. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 43 Zhang & Zhang (2004)???????????????????0.4176(t=0.004);??,?????????????????????????
(???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,???????????????????????)
44. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 44 Kemnitz(2000) ?????????????????????,????????????????????,??????????????????????,??????????????????
??????,?????????????????????????????,PAYG?????????????????,???????????????????,????????,??????????????
45. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 45 ?????:Kemnitz????????????????????????????,?????????????????????,???????????????????????????????:??????????????????????????
46. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 46 Kaganovich & Zilcha(1999) ??????????????????????????????????????????????????????,PAYG?????????????????PAYG?????????????????????????????????????????????????????
47. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 47 Bellettini & Ceroni(1999) ?????PAYG???????????????????????????????????????????????????,????PAYG???????????????????,????????????????????????????
48. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 48 ??????????????? 1. ???????????????????
Galor(1986) ??????????????????????????????????,???????????????????????????????
????????????,??????????????????????????????????????????? ?
49. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 49 Borjas(1995) ??,??????????????????,???????????(immigration surplus)?
Geide-Stevenson & Ho(2004)????????????,?????????????????,??????????????????,???????????????????????????????????????????????
50. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 50 2. ?????????????? ?????
??PAYG?,???????????????????????????,???????????1970s???????????????
????????????????????,???????????????
51. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 51 Craig and Batina (1991) ??????????????????????????????(???????????????????????????????????????????),????????????????????????,???????????????????,????????
52. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 52 Gruber and Wise (1999) ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????SSW??????? ??????????????????,?????????????????????
53. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 53 Gruber and Wise (2004) ?????????????: ?????? ??????? ???????,??????????????(??SSW???),??????????,?????????????????
?????????????????,????????
54. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 54 Gustman & Steinmeier(2004) ?????????10.6%??????????PAYG,????????62?????????15????,????????????????????????,?62?????????6??????????????????????????????????????,??????,??????????
55. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 55 ????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????,???????????????????????????????(ERP,2002,P78)
??????,????????????????70?????,?????????,?????3????,?????????1????????????????????,??????????
56. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 56 ???????????????????????????,Kotlikoff(1979)??????????????????,???????????????????????,???????????????????Crawford and Lilien(1981) ??,????????,??????????????????,??????????????????????
57. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 57 Hyman(1999,Chap 8) ????????????????????????70???????,??,???????????70?????????????
James(2004) ?????????????????????????????,???????,????????
58. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 58 Gustman & Steinmeier(2004) ???????????????????????????????,????1992-2000???????????????,??????????62????,??????????????????????,?????????????????????????????62????????
59. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 59 3. ??????????????? ????????????,???????????????????????????????????????,???????????????
?????????,?????????
60. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 60 Barr(1993,p65-67)??,????????????65?,???60?,????????77?,???80????????,???????????12?,???20????????????:????????????????????????20/12???????????????,???????,????????????????20/12?
61. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 61 Barr???????????????,??????????????????,???????????????????:???????????????????????,?????????????????????,?????????????????,?????????
????????????????,??????????,?65?,???????????????
62. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 62 Hurst and Willen(2004) ??,???????????????:????,?????????????10%?????,????,??????????,???????2%?????????,????????????????????:?????????????,???????????(??30?)?????????,??30???????????????????,????30??????????????????????????
63. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 63 ?????????????
????????????
????
???PAYG?FS??????? ?????????
64. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 64 1. ?????????????
65. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 65
66. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 66 ?????????????????????????????????????????????,????????????,????????????????????,?????????????
67. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 67 ???????,?????
??PAYG??????
???????? 2. ????????????
68. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 68 ??????????0.7???,????25???,?????????70.5????76???,??? ?1996??2.7:1????2035??1.43:1???????,???????????????,??????????1999??19.5%???20%-30%???(Bach and Wiegard,2002)
69. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 69 ???????????9????65?,???????????????????????????????????????1950??16:1?2004???3.3:1,???2040???2:1? ??36??????????????????,??????2018??????,????????2042????(ERP, 2005)?
70. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 70 ??????????????????,1925??4.08%,1950??2.20%,1975??1.90%,2000?1.70%?(2002????????,P117)
71. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 71 2004??,??65???????????9857?,??????7.6%?
??????????????????????,2020???65??????????????11.3%,2030s??????????,2050????????21.2%?
72. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 72 ?????????,???????????,?????????,?2025??,???????????5000-14000???????????????????
73. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 73
74. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 74 ? 3 ?????????????
????:ERP2004,P133
75. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 75
76. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 76
77. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 77 3. ????????? ?PAYG?FS???
?PAYG???,????????????????????????,?????????????
?????????????
78. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 78 (1)?PAYG?FS??? ????????,??????(DB)???????(DC)
???????????????????????
??????????????????????????????
79. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 79 ??:????????(PRAs)(ERP, 2002,2005)
???????:
??????,????????????????,????????47??,???????????????????,????????????????????????? (ERP,2005)
80. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 80 ??:???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????,?????????????,???????????????????
81. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 81 ??2001??Riester??:???????????,??????PAYG??????????,????????????????,??????????????????????????,????????????????????????10???????(Brsch-Supan & Wilke,2004)
82. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 82 ??2003?Rurup???????:?2001??????,??????????????65?67????????????????PAYG??????????????,?????????????,????DB???DC?2004?????????????,?????????????(Brsch-Supan & Wilke,2004)
83. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 83 (2) ??PAYG?????? Barr(1993,p63) ????????????????????????,?????????????;???????;?????????
??????:(a)?????????(b)?????????,???????;(c)????????,???????????????????(d)?????;(e)??????????;(f)??????????,?????????;(g)?????
84. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 84 Holzmann(1988)?Falkingham(1989)??????????????????(c)(g)??????????????????????????,????????????????????(a)?(b)??????,?????????????????????????????????,?????????????????
85. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 85 Fehr et al.(2003)????????:a.????????????????;b.?????????????;c. ???????????;d.??????????;e.???????????????????????
86. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 86 Gruber and Wise(2004) ????:??????,??????????,??????????
????????????,???????,?????????????????????????(ERP,2005)
87. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 87 (3)????????????? ???????????????????
Shoven and Whalley(1983)?and Seidman (1984) ?Batina (1987) ?Lord (1988) ?Hu (1996) ?Seidman and Lewis (1999)
Lopez-Garcia (1996) ???????(?????????)?????????-???????,?????????????,?????????????-????,?????????
88. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 88 Lin & Tian(2003) ??????????????????????????,??????????????????,????????????????????????,?????????????????,???????????????????
89. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 89 ???????????? Ono (2003) ??????????????,????????????????????????????,???????????????
??Ricardian Equivalence???
90. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 90 4. ???PAYG?FS??????? ?PAYG?FS???????
?PAYG?FS??:?????
?PAYG?FS??:???????????
??PRAs??????????
91. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 91 (1) ????? ????(prefund system)
FS????????
FS????????????
???????????????????????
92. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 92 (2)??:????? ?PAYG?FS?????????
?????????????
???????????????????????
??????,???????
93. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 93 ?????:???????????
?????????????,Spremann (1984)?Breyer(1989)????PAYG?FS??????????????
????????:?????????????,??????????????????????????????,??????????????????????????
94. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 94 Belan et al(1998,P124) ??,?PAYG?FS??????????????????????????????????????????????
Sinn(2000) ??,????????????????,????????,????????????????,?????????
95. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 95 (3)??:??????????? ??PAYG??????,???PAYG?FS???,?????????????,???????????????
96. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 96 ???????????,?????????(Bach and Wiegard,2002)
??PAYG??????????????,????????????
???????????
?????????????????????????????????
97. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 97 Fehr et al.(2003) ????????,?????????????????,???????????????????????????????,??????????????????????,???????,????????????????
98. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 98 Precott (2004) ???????????,?????PAYG????FS????????????????????,???????????,?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????
99. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 99 ????,PAYG???????????,?FS??????,????????????,FS??????????Bach and Wiegard(2002)??????????????:?????(??????????????????)??????(??????????,???????????????)????(???????????????????)???????????PAYG ? FS ?????????????
100. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 100 ??????????????????,??PRA??????????,???????????????,??PRAs?(Auerbach and Kotlikoff,1987 ; Kotlikoff 1996; Mitchell and Zeldes,1996 )
Feldstein et al(2001) ????????????????????PRAs?????,?????????????????PAYG???,????????????????????????? (4) ??PRAs??????????
101. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 101 5. ?????:???? ???:PAYG?FS???
???????,??????????:
??????????????
???????????
???????????????????(windfall effect)
102. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 102 ??????? ???????????????????????????????????????,??????????,????
??????????????????,??????????
??PAYG?FS??,??????????????
103. 2005-12-20 ???????????? 103 ???????????,????????????,?????:
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