Bayesian Statistics & Innovative Trial Design. April 3, 2006 Jane Perlmutter [email protected] Topics. Introduction Bayesian vs. Frequentists Statistics Some Innovative Designs Adaptive Designs Random Discontinuation Designs “Out of the Box” Designs Conclusions. .
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Bayesian Statistics & Innovative Trial Design
April 3, 2006
Spiegelhalter, D. J. et.al. An Introduction to Bayesian Methods in Health Technology Assessment, BMJ, 319, 508-511 (1999).
e.g. prior results,
i.e. current experiment
Subjectivity associated with prior probabilities
Use Monte Carlo simulation methods
Use multiple scenarios and conduct sensitivity analyses or use uniform priors
Strengths & Weaknesses
Winkler, R.L. Why Bayesian Analysis Hasn’t Caught on in Healthcare Decision Making, International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care, 17:1, 56-66(2001).
True Treatment Effect?
Randomly & Equally Assign Patient
Observe & Predict Responses
Randomly & Unequally Assign Patients
Adaptive Trial Design
All Patients Receive
Randomized Discontinuation Design
Agree to be
Out-of-the-Box Trial Design