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Outline. How do we define space weather? How do we observe it? What drives it (solar activity and solar phenomena)? Which are the impacts on: the atmosphere and technological sysytems? How can we forecast it? What service exist? Today’s space weather. The Sun. Diameter:

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Outline

Outline

  • How do we define space weather?

  • How do we observe it?

  • What drives it (solar activity and solar phenomena)?

  • Which are the impacts on:

    the atmosphere and technological sysytems?

  • How can we forecast it?

  • What service exist?

  • Today’s space weather.


The sun

The Sun

Diameter:

1 390 000 km

(109 x Earth)

Mass:

1.99x1030 kg

(330 000 x Earth)

Density:

Core 151x103 kg/m-3

Average 1.41x103 kg/m-3

The Sun consits of:

H (≈ 90%)

Helium (≈ 10%)

C,N,O ( ≈ 0.1%)

Temperature:

Core 15 million

Photosphere 5800 K

Chromosphere 4300-104K

Corona 1-30 million K

4 protons --> He + 2 positrons + 2 neutrinos + 2 fotons (26.2 MeV)


When the solar magnetic field emerges thru the solar suface sunspots appear

When the solar magnetic field emerges thru the solar suface sunspots appear


Chromosphere

Chromosphere

Prominence

Solar flare

The chromosphere in H-alpha


Trace

TRACE


The solar corona seen at solar eclipses

The solar corona seen at solar eclipses


The heating of the solar corona

The heating of the solar corona


Coronal mass ejections

Coronal mass ejections


Cmes cause the most severe space weather effects

CMEs cause the most severe space weather effects

  • Halo CMEs are most geoeffective

  • Mass: 5-50 billion tons

  • Frequency: 3.5/day (max), 0.2/day (min)

  • Speed: 200-2000 km/s


Solar flares and sun quakes

Solar flares and sun quakes


The solar wind

The solar wind

  • Predicted from comet studies in 1940 ties

  • Theoretically predicted by Parker 1959

  • Measusred in situ 1960


The source of the fast solar wind

The source of the fast solar wind


Solar wind

Solar wind

Typical values

V: 450km/s

N: 5particles/cm3

T: 105 K

B: 5nT

The solar wind consists

of protons,

electrons and

3-4% alpha particles


Computation of the coronal magnetic field

Computation of the coronal magnetic field

Daily observations of the solar photospheric magnetic field at WSO are used for computation of the coronal magnetic field according to the ”potential field

model”.


Computed br at r 2 5rs

Computed Br at R=2.5Rs


The heliospheric current sheet

The heliospheric current sheet


The solar wind1

The solar wind

Fast halo CME with

solar flares and

solar proton events

Fast continuous solar wind from

coronal holes

Heliospheric current sheet

The solar wind Bz, V, and n determine

the effect of the solar plasma.


Earth s response

Earth’s response

  • Geomagnetic disturbances

  • Aurora

  • Ionospheric disturbances

  • Climate and weather changes


Earth s magnetosphere and current systems

Earth’s magnetosphere and current systems


Geomagnetic storms

Geomagnetic storms


Earth s magnetosphere and ionosphere

Earth’s magnetosphere and ionosphere


Aurora oval

Aurora oval


Aurora during severe solar storms

Aurora during severe solar storms

Aurora was observed in Italy 6-7 April and on July 15-16, 2000!

The aurora observed in

Stockholm


Space weather effects on technological systems

Space weather effects on technological systems


Satellite anomalies

Satellite anomalies


Satellite anomalies of july 14 16 2000 event

Satellite anomalies of July 14-16, 2000 event

The proton event caused

problems for ACE,

SOHO, Ørsted,

Japanese X-ray satellite,

star trackers on board

commercial satellites.

Proton flux (pfu) > 10 MeV,

24000 pfu (July 15, 12.30 UT). Third largest!

Largest 43 000 pfu, (March 24, 1991). Second 40 000 pfu

(October 20, 1989).


Solar proton events are dangerous to man in space

Solar proton events are dangerous to man in space

Mars

Between Apollo 16 and 17 a proton

event occurred, which should have

been deadly to the astronautes within

10 hours (i.e. above 4000 mSv).


Radiation risks and aviation

Radiation risks and aviation

The radiation exposure is doubled every 2.2 km.

Solar flares can increase the radiation by 20-30 times.

Pilots get cancer more often than average.

The intensive solar flare of

April 2, 2001, which caused

major communication problems

also made Continental

Airlines to change

their route between

Hong Kong and New York.

New EU law:

Pregnant (aircrew) should

not be exposed to more

than 1 (1-6) millisievert/year


Power systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms

Power systems are effected at times of geomagnetic storms

This severe electrojet caused the failure of Quebec’s power system March 13-14, 1989.

A transformer damaged

in Main USA.

One of the generators of OKG’s (Sydkraft’s) nuclear plants was heated due to the geomagnetically induced current in March 13-14 1989.


Workshops arranged by us

Workshops arranged by us

Workshops on ”Artificial Intelligence Applications in

Solar-Terrestrial Physics” were held in Lund 1993

and 1997.


Artificial neural networks

Artificial neural networks

The basic element of every ANN is an artificial neuron or

simply a neuron (which is an abstract model of a

biological neuron (nerve cell)).


Download lund dst model in java and matlab

Download Lund Dst model in Java and Matlab

The ARMA filter is obtained by adding auto-regressive terms to a MA filter.The partial recurrent network (Elman) becomes identical to a linear ARMA filter if it is assigned linear activations functions.


Our scientific approach

Our scientific approach


Real time test of dst forecasts

Real-time test of Dst forecasts


Test dst forecasts

Test Dst forecasts


Applications

Applications


Applications1

Applications


Applications2

Applications


Real time forecasts and warnings based on kbn

Real-time forecasts and warnings based on KBN

Solar input data

Solar observations with SOHO make warnings 1-3

days ahead possible.

Solar wind observations with ACE make accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead possible.


Esa lund space weather forecast service package

ESA/Lund Space Weather Forecast Service Package


Near and farside solar activity from mdi soho observations

Near and farside solar activity from MDI/SOHO observations


Latest information on arrival of halo cme at l1

Latest information on arrival of halo CME at L1


Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies saaps

Latest info on forecasts of satellite anomalies (SAAPS)


Latest information on forecasts of kp dst ae and gic

Latest information on forecasts of Kp, Dst, AE and GIC


Our gic pilot project an application at implementation stage

Our GIC Pilot ProjectAn application at implementation stage


Today general forecast service is given by rwcs within ises

Today general forecast service is given by RWCs within ISES

ISES Director: D. Boteler

Deputy Director: H. Lundstedt

Secr. for World days: H. Coffey

Secr. Space Weather: J. Kunches

WWW for Satellites: J. King


Rwc sweden ises

RWC - SwedenISES


The october 14 november 6 events it all started with no sunspots

The October 14 -November 6 events:It all started with no sunspots

  • No sunspots (R=24)

  • Aurora observed in

    Southern Sweden

    (Gothenburg, Lund)

  • Media got interested

  • SOHO/MDI far side

    images had told me

    Large ARs were to come


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Many radio and newspaper interviews followed and AR 484 entered


Then came the ar 486 october 28 event

Then came the AR 486, October 28 event

  • Even more interviews

  • Warnings and reports were sent to

    power industry

  • Discussions with power operators


Power outage in malm

Power outage in Malmö

Power Outage in Southern Sweden, October 30, 2003

Rz spectral

density LF

20-128 days.

Stora AR

vanligare.


The power failure got enormous media attention in sweden

The power failure got enormous media attention in Sweden

Every TV, radio station

and newspaper

had something


And then x28 solar flare on november 4

And then ….X28 solar flare on November 4!!


Active regions 484 486 488 one rotation later

Active Regions 484/486/488 one rotation later


Today s space weather

Today’s Space Weather


Where to learn more www lund irf se

Where to learn more?www.lund.irf.se


Outline 4840233

END

Part 2

Acknowledgements.

I am grateful to the following providers of images and animations;

ESA/NASA SOHO teams.


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