Outline. How do we define space weather? How do we observe it? What drives it (solar activity and solar phenomena)? Which are the impacts on: the atmosphere and technological sysytems? How can we forecast it? What service exist? Today’s space weather. The Sun. Diameter:
the atmosphere and technological sysytems?
1 390 000 km
(109 x Earth)
(330 000 x Earth)
Core 151x103 kg/m-3
Average 1.41x103 kg/m-3
The Sun consits of:
H (≈ 90%)
Helium (≈ 10%)
C,N,O ( ≈ 0.1%)
Core 15 million
Photosphere 5800 K
Corona 1-30 million K
4 protons --> He + 2 positrons + 2 neutrinos + 2 fotons (26.2 MeV)
The chromosphere in H-alpha
T: 105 K
The solar wind consists
3-4% alpha particles
Daily observations of the solar photospheric magnetic field at WSO are used for computation of the coronal magnetic field according to the ”potential field
Fast halo CME with
solar flares and
solar proton events
Fast continuous solar wind from
Heliospheric current sheet
The solar wind Bz, V, and n determine
the effect of the solar plasma.
Aurora was observed in Italy 6-7 April and on July 15-16, 2000!
The aurora observed in
The proton event caused
problems for ACE,
Japanese X-ray satellite,
star trackers on board
Proton flux (pfu) > 10 MeV,
24000 pfu (July 15, 12.30 UT). Third largest!
Largest 43 000 pfu, (March 24, 1991). Second 40 000 pfu
(October 20, 1989).
Between Apollo 16 and 17 a proton
event occurred, which should have
been deadly to the astronautes within
10 hours (i.e. above 4000 mSv).
The radiation exposure is doubled every 2.2 km.
Solar flares can increase the radiation by 20-30 times.
Pilots get cancer more often than average.
The intensive solar flare of
April 2, 2001, which caused
major communication problems
also made Continental
Airlines to change
their route between
Hong Kong and New York.
New EU law:
Pregnant (aircrew) should
not be exposed to more
than 1 (1-6) millisievert/year
This severe electrojet caused the failure of Quebec’s power system March 13-14, 1989.
A transformer damaged
in Main USA.
One of the generators of OKG’s (Sydkraft’s) nuclear plants was heated due to the geomagnetically induced current in March 13-14 1989.
Workshops on ”Artificial Intelligence Applications in
Solar-Terrestrial Physics” were held in Lund 1993
The basic element of every ANN is an artificial neuron or
simply a neuron (which is an abstract model of a
biological neuron (nerve cell)).
The ARMA filter is obtained by adding auto-regressive terms to a MA filter.The partial recurrent network (Elman) becomes identical to a linear ARMA filter if it is assigned linear activations functions.
Solar input data
Solar observations with SOHO make warnings 1-3
days ahead possible.
Solar wind observations with ACE make accurate forecasts 1-3 hours ahead possible.
ISES Director: D. Boteler
Deputy Director: H. Lundstedt
Secr. for World days: H. Coffey
Secr. Space Weather: J. Kunches
WWW for Satellites: J. King
images had told me
Large ARs were to come
Many radio and newspaper interviews followed and AR 484 entered
Power Outage in Southern Sweden, October 30, 2003
Every TV, radio station
I am grateful to the following providers of images and animations;
ESA/NASA SOHO teams.