Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using    Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Observations
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 33

Masayoshi PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 74 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Observations. Bernard V. Jackson, P. Paul Hick, Andrew Buffington, Hsiu-Shan Yu, Julio Cesar Mejia-Ambriz, Nolan Luckett Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences,

Download Presentation

Masayoshi

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Masayoshi

Heliospheric Solar Wind Forecasting Using Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS) Observations

Bernard V. Jackson,

P. Paul Hick, Andrew Buffington, Hsiu-Shan Yu,

Julio Cesar Mejia-Ambriz, Nolan Luckett

Center for Astrophysics and Space Sciences,

University of California at San Diego, LaJolla, CA, USA

Mario M. Bisi

Institute of Mathematics and Physics, Aberystwyth University, Penglais Campus, Aberystwyth, Wales, UK

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

Masayoshi


Masayoshi

Introduction:

The data: Interplanetary Scintillation (IPS)

STELab, Ooty, MEXART, KSWC

3D density and velocity reconstructions from IPS

Recent programming enhancements, Magnetic field extrapolations, and their use in forecasting

The Future – Possible IPS density and velocity from LOFAR, MWA


Ips heliospheric analyses stelab

IPS Heliospheric Analyses (STELab)

DATA

IPS line-of-sight response

STELab IPS array near Mt. Fuji

STELab IPS array systems


Current stelab toyokawa ips system

Current STELab Toyokawa IPS System

New STELab IPS array in Toyokawa (3,432 m2 array now operates well – year-round operation began in 2011)


Other current operating ips radio systems

Other Current Operating IPS Radio Systems

The Ootacamund (Ooty), India off-axis parabolic cylinder 530 m long and 30 m wide (15,900 m2) operating at a nominal frequency of 326.5 MHz.

The Pushchino Radio Observatory 70,000 m2 110 MHz array, Russia (summer 2006)

Now named the “Big Scanning Array of the Lebedev Physical Institute” (BSA LPI).


Masayoshi

Other and Potential Future IPS systems

MEXART (Mexico)

KSWC (South Korea)

Dedicated IPS 700 m2 327 MHz IPS radio 32 tile array, Jeju Island

Dedicated IPS IPS 9,600 m2 140 MHz IPS radio array near Michoacan, Mexico

MWA (Western Australia)

LOFAR (Western Europe)

(32 tiles are now operating. The full array 128 tiles can obtain some IPS data.)

(Some parts of the system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are involved. IPS/FR tests are ongoing.)


Masayoshi

IPS line-of-sight response

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360.

Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.

STELab IPS

Sample outward motion over time


Masayoshi

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339

Relative Weighting

Outward Radial Motion


Masayoshi

IPS line-of-sight response

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360.

Heliospheric C.A.T. analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.

STELab IPS

14 July 2000

13 July 2000


Ips c a t analysis

IPS C.A.T. Analysis

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31

Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000


Ips c a t analysis1

IPS C.A.T. Analysis

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31

Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000


Ips c a t analysis2

IPS C.A.T. Analysis

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31

Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000


Ips c a t analysis3

IPS C.A.T. Analysis

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2002, Solar Wind 10, 31

Bastille Day Event 14 July 2000

IPS Density Meridional Cut

IPS Density LOS X-ing Meridional Cut


Masayoshi

Zhao, X. P. and Hoeksema, J. T., 1995, J. Geophys. Res., 100 (A1), 19.

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

Magnetic Field Extrapolation

  • Inner region: the CSSS model calculates the magnetic field usingphotospheric measurements and a horizontal current model.

2.Middle region: the CSSS model opens the field lines. In the outer region.

3.Outer region: the UCSD tomography convects the magnetic field along velocity flow lines.

Dunn et al., 2005, Solar Physics 227: 339–353.

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.


Ips c a t analysis4

IPS C.A.T. Analysis

Dunn, T.J., et al., 2005, Solar Phys., 227, 339

Potential field modeling added

IPS Density Remote View


Masayoshi

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256.

IPS line-of-sight response

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2008, Adv. in Geosciences, 21, 339-360.

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2012,Solar Phys., 285, 151-165.

Heliospheric C.A.T. Analyses: example line-of-sight distribution for each sky location to form the source surface of the 3D reconstruction.

Innovation

STELab IPS

*

13 July 2000

Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions


Heliospheric 3d reconstructions

Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256.

Innovation

Innovation

Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions


Heliospheric 3d reconstructions1

Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256.

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

Forecast

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013,Solar Phys., 285, 151-165.

Density

Forecast

Forecast

Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions

Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present.

Velocity

Forecast


Heliospheric 3d reconstructions2

Heliospheric 3D-reconstructions

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2010,Solar Phys., 265, 245-256.

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

Forecast

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2013,Solar Phys., 285, 151-165.

Density

Density

Forecast

Inclusion of in-situ measurements into the 3D-reconstructions

Forecasts work better if the values match up to the present.

Velocity

Velocity

Forecast


Masayoshi

Jackson, B.V., et al., 2011, Adv. in Geosciences, 30, 93-115.

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

UCSD Web pages

UCSD IPS forecasts

Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.


Masayoshi

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

Skysweep view

UCSD IPS forecast

Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.


Masayoshi

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

Skymap view

UCSD IPS forecast

Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.


Masayoshi

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

Skymap view

UCSD IPS forecast

Web analysis runs automatically using Linux on a P.C.


Recent forecast

Recent Forecast

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc

Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.


Recent forecast1

Recent Forecast

http://ips.ucsd.edu/

One CME just passed 2013/05/14 4-6 UT increase by ~8 Np/cc

Web Analysis Runs Automatically Using Linux on a P.C.


Masayoshi

Time-Dependent Analysis Using Other IPS Systems

Fisheye velocity skymaps with additional radio sources

Analysis including MEXART source

Analysis without MEXART source


Masayoshi

To Make a 3D-MHD Boundary

Time-Dependent Velocity at 0.25 AU IHG Coordinates


Masayoshi

To Make a 3D-MHD Boundary

Time-Dependent Density at 0.25 AU IHG Coordinates


Masayoshi

To Make a 3D-MHD Boundary

Time-Dependent Radial Field at 0.25 AU, IHG Coordinates


Masayoshi

IPS Boundary 3D-MHD

MS-FLUKSS 3D-MHD modeling from a 0.25AU 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary. (Kim, T. K., 2012, AIP Conference Proc. 1500, pp. 140-146.)


Masayoshi

IPS Boundary 3D-MHD

Ooty IPS velocities and g-level densities.C.C. Wu 3D-MHD modeling from an 18 Rs 3D time-dependent IPS tomography boundary. (Wu, S.T., et al., 2001, J. Geophys. Res. 106, 25089-25102.)

3D-MHD

3D-MHD


Masayoshi

Future Potential

LOFAR (Western Europe)

(Some parts of the LOFAR system are now operating - Richard Fallows, Mario Bisi are involved. IPS tests are ongoing.)

LOFAR IPS 3C48 Signal


Masayoshi

Summary:

IPS Forecasting:

  • Forecasts with the IPS data (this has worked with STELab data for about 13 years).

  • Forecasts in real-time work better now with the inclusion of in-situ data (available since spring, 2011). These new innovations and the inclusion of other world IPS data sets make the technique a good way to forecast velocities and densities, and provide updates of modeling analyses on the way from Sun to Earth.

  • We are now beginning to combine these analyses with 3D-MHD results. One of the ideas is to update MHD results more directly by providing interim solutions iterated like the IPS time-dependent tomography.


  • Login