1 / 21

Interim progress report

Interim progress report. Team Cupcake (Group 3). Our Asks. Final product? Conceptual model (process map) Key takeaways What have we missed, what could be cut?. Objective.

lona
Download Presentation

Interim progress report

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Interim progress report Team Cupcake (Group 3)

  2. Our Asks • Final product? • Conceptual model (process map) • Key takeaways • What have we missed, what could be cut?

  3. Objective Put forth an interregional assessment of the preparedness and resilience of Mediterranean nations across intergovernmental and inter-political relationships during a period of extreme drought

  4. History of climate change and interstate conflict

  5. Vulnerability & Readiness We’re interested in how this varies across the Mediterranean • EU, Non EU, Asia and Africa There are already assessments of the vulnerability and readiness at national scales • e.g. NDGain Index There are two particular factors we’re focusing on: • “Adaptive capacity of the communities is often depleted when they are in conflict zones” (UNEP, 2009) • Membership of political unions (e.g. EU)

  6. ND-GAIN Index of Vulnerability and Readiness

  7. Governance

  8. IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

  9. IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

  10. IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

  11. IPCC, 2013: Annex I: Atlas of Global and Regional Climate Projections Supplementary Material RCP8.5

  12. Economic Impact: No Drought

  13. Drought and aridity

  14. The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) • The Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) shows the actual precipitation compared to the probability of precipitation for various time frames. The SPI is an index based on precipitation only. It can be used on a variety of time scales, which allows it to be useful for both short-term agricultural and long-term hydrological applications. • A drought event occurs any time the SPI is continuously negative and reaches an intensity of -1.0 or less. The event ends when the SPI becomes positive. • Each drought event, therefore, has a duration defined by its beginning and end, and an intensity for each month that the event continues. The positive sum of the SPI for all the months within a drought event can be termed the drought’s “magnitude”. The National Drought Mitigation Center http://drought.unl.edu/

  15. North Africa Southern Europe Middle East European Drought Observatory http://edo.jrc.ec.europa.eu/

  16. Climate Change and Migration: Mediterranean Basin Climate change: Exacerbate existing migration flows Different hazards, different effects: Gradual vs. extreme changes Important questions: 1) What are the existing migration connections in the Mediterranean Basin? 2) What combination of circumstances currently lead people to move there? 3) How might a severe drought exacerbate these conditions? 4) Potential for novel migration flows? Abel and Sander, 2014

  17. Potential Economic Impacts: Drought • Two major factors in the regional economy: tourism and agriculture • Influence of these sectors on GDP is not evenly spread out • Agriculture influence is the highest in: • Albania (19.5%) • Syria (17.6%) • Morocco (15.1%) • Egypt (14.5%) • Tourism influence is highest in: • Croatia (12.1%) • Montenegro (9.8%) • Morocco (8.6%) • Tunisia (7.3%)

  18. Potential Economic Impacts: Drought (cont’d) • Agriculture might represent bigger impacts as a larger portion of the economy in more vulnerable countries • Impacts on agriculture are also easier to immediately discern than those on tourism • There are human dimension uncertainties surrounding both • Agriculture impact depends on land management • Tourism impact depends on how those outside the region respond – there is more of a lag in response • Drought can lead farmers to transition to tourism which may actually help conserve remaining water resources

  19. Maslow’s hierarchy – lowered capacity

  20. Maslow’s hierarchy – point of intervention

  21. Our Asks • Final product? • Conceptual model (process map) • Key takeaways • What have we missed, what could be cut?

More Related