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MPU 2010:3 101215. Figure 01. Repo rate with uncertainty bands Per cent, quarterly averages.

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### MPU 2010:3101215

Figure 01. Repo rate with uncertainty bandsPer cent, quarterly averages

Note. The uncertainty bands for the repo rate are based on the ability of risk-adjusted market rates to forecast the future repo rate. This uncertainty band does not take into account the fact that there may be a lower bound for the repo rate.

Source: The Riksbank

Figure 02. GDP with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change, seasonally-adjusted data

Note.The uncertainty band shows the band within which GDP growth is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. There is also uncertainty for the outcomes for GDP, as the National Accounts figures are revised several years after the preliminary publication.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 03. CPI with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 04. CPIF with uncertainty bandsAnnual percentage change

Note. The uncertainty band shows the band within which inflation is expected to be with a 50%, 75% and 90% probability. The uncertainty regarding the CPIF forecast is based on the Riksbank's forecast errors for the CPIX during the period 1999 until the introduction of published CPIF forecasts in 2008, with an adjustment for the fact that the CPIF and the CPIX have varied to different degrees.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 05. GDPQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally-adjusted data

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 06. UnemploymentPercentage of the labour force, seasonally-adjusted data

Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 years.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 07. Labour force and number of employedThousands, seasonally-adjusted data

Note. Pre-1993 data has been spliced by the Riksbank. Broken lines represent the Riksbank’s forecast, 15-74 year.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 08. CPI, CPIF and CPIF excluding energyAnnual percentage change

Note. CPIF is CPI with a fixed mortgage interest rate.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 09. Real repo ratePer cent, quarterly averages

Note. The real repo rate is calculated as an average of the Riksbank’s repo rate forecasts for the coming year minus the inflation forecast (CPIF) for the corresponding period.

Source: The Riksbank

Figure 10. TCW-weighted exchange rate Index, 18.11.92 = 100

Note. Outcome data are daily rates and forecasts are quarterly averages.

Source: The Riksbank

Figure 11. Oil price, Brent crudeUSD per barrel

Note. Futures are calculated as a 15-day average. Outcomes represent monthly averages of spot prices.

Sources: Intercontinental Exchange and the Riksbank

Figure 12. Development of GDP in different regions and countriesQuarterly changes in per cent, annual rate, seasonally adjusted data

Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Eurostat, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 13. GDP-gap and RU-indicatorPercentage deviation from potential level and standard deviation

Note. GDP-gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a Hodric Prescott filter. The GDP gap (PF) refers to the deviation from trend in GDP calculated with a production funtion. The RU-indicator is normalized so that the mean value is zero and the standard deviation is 1.

Sources: Statisitcs Sweden and the Riksbank

Figure 14. Hours gapPercentage deviation from potential level

Note. The hours gap (HP) refers to the deviation from trend in the number of hours worked calculated with a Hodrick Prescott-filter. The hours gap refers to the deviation in the number of hours worked from the Riksbank's assumed trend for the numbers of hours worked.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Q3

2010

Q4

2011 Q1

2011

Q4

2012

Q4

2013

Q4

Repo rate

0.55

1.0 (1.0)

1.

4 (1.3

)

2.0 (2.0)

2.9 (

2.9)

3.4

(3.4)

Table A1. Repo rate forecastPer cent, quarterly average valuesSource: The Riksbank

Table A2. Inflation, annual average Annual percentage change

Note. CPIF is CPI with fixed interest rate. HICP is an EU harmonised index of consumer prices which does not include household mortgage costs.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A3. Summary of financial forecastsAnnual average, per cent, unless otherwise specified

* Per cent of GDP

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A4. International conditionsAnnual percentage change

Note. The figures in parentheses indicate the global purchasing-power adjusted GDP-weights, according to the IMF.

The Swedish export market index is calculated as a weighted average of the imports of the 15 countries which are the largest recipients of Swedish exports. They receive approximately 70 per cent of Swedish exports.

Sources: Eurostat, IMF, Intercontinental Exchange,

OECD and the Riksbank

Table A5. GDP by expenditureAnnual percentage change, unless otherwise specified

*Contribution to GDP growth, percentage points

Note. The figures show actual growth rates that have not been calendar-adjusted, unless otherwise stated. NA is the National Accounts.

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Table A6. Production and employment Annual percentage change, unless otherwise stated

* Per cent of labour force

Sources: Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

Note. Potential hours refers to the long-term sustainable level for the number of hours worked.

Table A7. Wages and unit labour cost for the economy as a whole Annual percentage change, calendar-adjusted data

* Contribution to the increase in labour costs, percentage points.

Note. NMO is the National Mediation Office’s short-term wage statistics and NA is the National Accounts. Labour cost per hour is defined as the sum of actual wages, collective charges and wage taxes divided by the seasonally adjusted total number of hours worked. Unit labour cost is defined as labour cost divided by seasonally adjusted value added at constant prices.

Sources: National Mediation Office, Statistics Sweden and the Riksbank

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