Project management lecture 19
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Project Management Lecture 19. Project management involves estimating the length of time to complete a project Once a project has been undertaken then a project manager is responsible for carrying out the project on the assigned time table How do the managers establish a time schedule

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Project Management Lecture 19

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Project management lecture 19

Project Management Lecture 19

  • Project management involves estimating the length of time to complete a project

  • Once a project has been undertaken then a project manager is responsible for carrying out the project on the assigned time table

  • How do the managers establish a time schedule

    • Generally based on average length of time for each component

    • Average length of time based on past experience

  • Length of time to complete each step is a random variable


Project management lecture 19

Materials for Lecture 19

  • Readings Chapter 14

  • Lecture 19 Short Project Management.XLSX

  • Lecture 19 Project Management.XLSX

  • Lecture 19 Event Management.XLSX

  • Lecture 19 Have Some Fun.XLSX


Project management

Project Management

  • Who does project management?

    • Engineers, managers, accountants

    • They calculate number of days to completion

  • They do not incorporate risk most times

  • Benefits of incorporating risk into project management analysis

    • Assign a probability to number of days until project completion

    • Assign a probability to getting a project done in a fixed timeframe


Project management1

Project Management

  • KOV for a project management problem is: How long will it take?

  • There is no final answer until project is completed

  • Answer is an unknown PDF of days, weeks, or months to completion

  • Simulation provides a methodology for estimating unknown PDFs

  • Formulate the problem as a Monte Carlo simulation problem


Project management2

Project Management

  • Model formulation

    • KOV is Number of Days to completion

    • Identify each task (step) for project

    • Specify order of each task for the project

      • Identify bottlenecks where tasks will wait on precious stages

    • Determine the PDFs for number of days (or weeks, months, etc.) to complete each task

      • Rely onexperience for past jobs

      • Depend on experts for time to complete each task

      • PDF may be dependent on resources available


Project management3

Project Management

  • Critical to identify the order of the tasks and their linkages (dependencies)

  • For example

    • Task 10 starts after Tasks 5 and 8 are completed

    • Task 11 starts after Task 10 is completed

  • Thus, Task 5 or 8 could hold up the whole project

    • If analysis shows 5 is the bottleneck is it worth investing more resources in Task 5 to get the project completed earlier?


Project management4

Project Management

  • Create a simple Project Network Diagram to summarize the order of tasks

  • Drawn it in Excel with simple arrows and boxes

  • Network diagram shows potential bottlenecks


Project management5

Project Management

  • Tasks 1-6, 2 and 3 wait on 1, 4 waits on 2, 5 waits on 3 and 4, last task waits on 5

  • Assumes next task starts day after it predecessor ends

  • Days in column C are GRKS() stochastic


Project management6

Project Management

  • Finite limit to complete the project is 45 days

  • P(Days>45)=?


Project management lecture 19

Spreadsheet of a Project Management Analysis


Project management7

Project Management

  • I like to add a second KOV – Cost

  • We know cost of a project is stochastic

  • So project management model can simulate PDFs for days and cost

  • In the example $/day costs for each task are multiplied by stochastic days


Event planner

Event Planner

  • Event planner KOVs

    • Number of days ahead to start planning an event

    • Cost of the event

  • Research application KOVs

    • Time to complete a research project

    • Cost of project

  • Wedding planner

    • Probability of being ready on time

    • Cost of the event

  • Banquet planner


Event planner1

Event Planner


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