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UKIP and Immigration. Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, [email protected] ; twitter: @ epkaufm ; web: www.sneps.net. Data. Understanding Society survey – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. 460 UKIP supporters or voters

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Ukip and immigration

UKIP and Immigration

Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP

Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,

[email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm;

web: www.sneps.net


Data

  • Understanding Society survey – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12.

    • 460 UKIP supporters or voters

    • Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward

    • longitudinal

  • Local Election Data, 2010-12

    • UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940

    • Census predictors



Ukip not bnp in blazers
UKIP: Not BNP in Blazers


Clusters in ukip
Clusters in UKIP

  • Southern, Tory-dominated ward, rural, homeowner [traditional UKIP base]

  • Lower class, low education, older, council house/renter [‘left behind’]

  • 2 ideological clusters


Local council elections
Local Council Elections

UKIP Census Index:

  • Total Population (ward)

  • % Retired (ward)

  • % Degrees (ward)

  • % No qualifications (ward)

  • % English as a Share of White British (LA)

  • Low Deprivation (LA)

    Predicts around 40% of variation in UKIP vote in councils they contested during 2010-12




UKIP not a response to local ethnic change. BNP vote much more so (i.e. Barking)

UKIP supporters dislike immigration in the abstract, BNP more likely to be in close-knit communities directly affected by immigration


Does ukip own immigration
Does UKIP own more so (i.e. Barking)immigration?

  • UKIP supporters more outstandingly Euroskeptic than anti-immigration (Ford & Goodwin 2014, p. 193), unlike BNP

  • 82 percent of White British want immigration reduced, 60 percent ‘reduced a lot’. Not a minority.

  • UKIP long way to go to reach most anti-immigration voters


Ukip a coalition
UKIP a Coalition more so (i.e. Barking)

  • UKIP cross-class, multiple issues, unlike BNP

  • Elderly profile unique. Europe more an old person’s issue than immigration

  • Can UKIP encompass old and young, middle and working class?

  • Tension between rural base and urban working class


Ukip rural traditionalists or working class populists
UKIP: more so (i.e. Barking)Rural Traditionalists or Working-Class Populists?



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