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UKIP and Immigration. Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris, [email protected] ; twitter: @ epkaufm ; web: www.sneps.net. Data. Understanding Society survey – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12. 460 UKIP supporters or voters

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ukip and immigration

UKIP and Immigration

Ethnic Change, UKIP and the BNP

Eric Kaufmann and Gareth Harris,

[email protected]; twitter: @epkaufm;

web: www.sneps.net

slide2
Data
  • Understanding Society survey – 3 waves of 40,000 people, 2009-12.
    • 460 UKIP supporters or voters
    • Lower sample, but concentrated 2009-onward
    • longitudinal
  • Local Election Data, 2010-12
    • UKIP results in 1006 electoral wards of 2940
    • Census predictors
clusters in ukip
Clusters in UKIP
  • Southern, Tory-dominated ward, rural, homeowner [traditional UKIP base]
  • Lower class, low education, older, council house/renter [‘left behind’]
  • 2 ideological clusters
local council elections
Local Council Elections

UKIP Census Index:

  • Total Population (ward)
  • % Retired (ward)
  • % Degrees (ward)
  • % No qualifications (ward)
  • % English as a Share of White British (LA)
  • Low Deprivation (LA)

Predicts around 40% of variation in UKIP vote in councils they contested during 2010-12

slide10

UKIP not a response to local ethnic change. BNP vote much more so (i.e. Barking)

UKIP supporters dislike immigration in the abstract, BNP more likely to be in close-knit communities directly affected by immigration

does ukip own immigration
Does UKIP own immigration?
  • UKIP supporters more outstandingly Euroskeptic than anti-immigration (Ford & Goodwin 2014, p. 193), unlike BNP
  • 82 percent of White British want immigration reduced, 60 percent ‘reduced a lot’. Not a minority.
  • UKIP long way to go to reach most anti-immigration voters
ukip a coalition
UKIP a Coalition
  • UKIP cross-class, multiple issues, unlike BNP
  • Elderly profile unique. Europe more an old person’s issue than immigration
  • Can UKIP encompass old and young, middle and working class?
  • Tension between rural base and urban working class
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