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Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 Education

Overview. Disruptive DemographicsImpending Demographic Challenges Implications for K-12 Workforce Planning

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Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 Education

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    1. October 2009 Disruptive Demographics: Implications for K-12 Education James H. Johnson, Jr. Ph.D. William Rand Kenan, Jr. Distinguished Professor of Entrepreneurship and Strategy Kenan-Flagler Business School Director, Urban Investment Strategies Center Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill 1

    2. Overview Disruptive Demographics Impending Demographic Challenges Implications for K-12 Workforce Planning & Curriculum Development 2 October 2009

    3. Disruptive Demographics “Browning” of America “Greying” of America Nexus of diversity issues undergirding these two demographic shifts October 2009 3

    4. Personal and Lifestyle Characteristics by Generation October 2009 4

    5. Workplace Characteristics October 2009 5

    6. Workplace Characteristics (cont’d) October 2009 6

    7. People on the Move October 2009 7

    8. October 2009 8

    9. October 2009 Legal Immigrants: 1920-1961: 206,000 annually 1961-1992: 561,000 annually 1993-1998: 800,654 annually 1999-2004: 879,400 annually Refugees, Parolees, Asylees 1961-1993: 2.1 million (65,000 annually) 1994-1998: 428,361 (85,672 annually) 1999-2004: 487,386 (81,231 annually) Illegal Immigrants: 300,000 to 400,000 annually over the past two decades Three million granted amnesty in 1986 2.7 million illegal immigrants remained in U.S. after 1986 reforms October 1996: INS estimated that there were 5 million illegal immigrants in the U.S. August 2005: Illegal population range from 7 to 15 million. The Numbers 9

    10. Non-Immigrants Admitted to United States, Selected Years, 1981-2004 October 2009 10

    11. October 2009 11

    12. Immigration Population, 1900-2007 October 2009 12

    13. World Region of Birth for U.S. Population, 1970-2004 October 2009 13

    14. Population Estimations by Race/Ethnicity, 1988-2050 October 2009 14

    15. U.S. Fertility Rate by Race/Ethnicity, 2006 October 2009 15

    16. America’s Color Adjustment October 2009 16

    17. Relative Distribution of U.S. Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2005 and 2050* October 2009 17

    18. Women Who Had a Birth in the Last 12 Months, 15-50 years old, by Select Characteristics, 2006 October 2009 18

    19. Women Who Had a Birth in the Last 12 Months, 15-50 years old, by Select Characteristics, 2006 (cont’d) October 2009 19

    20. Women Who Had a Birth in the Last 12 Months, 15-50 years old, by Select Characteristics, 2006 (cont’d) October 2009 20

    21. Women Who Had a Birth in the Last 12 Months, 15-50 years old, by Select Characteristics, 2006 (cont’d) October 2009 21

    22. Median Age by Race and Gender, 2006 October 2009 22

    23. Completed Fertility for Women 40-44 Years Old October 2009 23

    24. U.S. Total and Foreign Born Population Change, 1990-2000 October 2009 24

    25. Change in Regional Distribution of Foreign Born Population, 1970-2004 October 2009 25

    26. Percent Change in Total and Foreign Born Population, by Region, 1990-2000 October 2009 26

    27. October 2009 27

    28. October 2009 28

    29. October 2009 29

    30. October 2009 30 As you can see from this slide, in a number of states, including CA, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, the white population actually declined during the 1990s. What this means is that all of the population growth in these areas was due to increases in the nonwhite population. In nearly every state, except for a few in the mountain region, New England, and in Appalachia, nonwhite population increases accounted for more than half of new population growth. As you can see from this slide, in a number of states, including CA, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, and New Jersey, the white population actually declined during the 1990s. What this means is that all of the population growth in these areas was due to increases in the nonwhite population. In nearly every state, except for a few in the mountain region, New England, and in Appalachia, nonwhite population increases accounted for more than half of new population growth.

    31. October 2009 31

    32. October 2009 32

    33. October 2009 States with Fastest Growing Immigrant Populations, 1990-2000 33

    34. October 2009 States with Fastest Growing Immigrant Populations, 2000-2005 34

    35. October 2009 States with Fastest Growing Hispanic Populations, 2000-2005 35

    36. Blacks Return to the South Change in Population, 1990-2000 October 2009 36

    37. Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, 1990-2000 October 2009 37

    38. October 2009 38

    39. Net Population Change Attributable to Non-White Population Growth, 2000-2004 October 2009 39

    40. In-Migration, Out-Migration, Net Migration, and Movers from Abroad for Regions, 1990-2000 October 2009 40

    41. Absolute and Relative Population Change for the U.S. and Census Regions, 1990-2000 October 2009 41

    42. Population by Race and Hispanic Origin for the United States: 2000 October 2009 42

    43. Net Population Change in the United States by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin, 1990-2000 October 2009 43

    44. Net Population Change in the United States by Race and Hispanic or Latino Origin, 2000-2005 October 2009 44

    45. Aging America: U.S. Median Age, 1820-2000 October 2009 45

    46. U.S. Population Turning 50, 55, 62, and 65 Years of Age, 2007-2015 October 2009 46

    47. Absolute and Relative Change in the Gender/Age Composition of the U.S. Population, 1990-2000 October 2009 47

    48. Absolute and Relative Change in the Gender/Age Composition of the U.S. Population, 2000-2005 October 2009 48

    49. Age Profile of UNC-CH Faculty, 2002 October 2009 49

    50. Aging America: U.S. Population 65 and older, selected years, 1996-2030 (in millions) October 2009 50

    51. Absolute and Percent Change in U.S. Population by Age, 2005-2050* October 2009 51

    52. Older Workers in U.S. Workforces October 2009 52

    53. October 2009 Change in Foreign Born and Hispanic Shares of Working Age Population (18-64), 2005-2050 53

    54. Impending Demographic Challenges October 2009 54

    55. 55 October 2009

    56. Population of U.S. children under 18 years by race/ethnicity, income, and other social characteristics, 2004 56 October 2009

    57. Population of U.S. children under 18 years by race/ethnicity, income, and other social characteristics, 2004 57 October 2009

    58. Implications and Challenges Managing transition from the “graying” to the “browning” of America. Competition for talent will be fierce – and global. Successful recruitment and retention will hinge on your ability to effectively manage the full nexus of “diversity” issues. October 2009 58

    59. Responding to the Challenges Higher education must better prepare K-12 education leaders. Develop an education curriculum to better prepare our children for 21st-century realities Provide the requisite mentoring and academic supports to maximize academic success Develop more effective strategies to recruit and retain qualified teachers. October 2009 59

    60. What Our Youth Must Do Learn to code-switch Display entrepreneurial acumen Development contextual intelligence Embrace diversity October 2009 60

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