Ocean Conditions and Salmon Marine Survival
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Ocean Conditions and Salmon Marine Survival Robert L Emmett and Bill Muir Fish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries 2725 Montlake Boulevard East, Seattle, WA 98112. Ocean Conditions. 70’s 80’s 99-02. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO).

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Ocean Conditions and Salmon Marine Survival Robert L Emmett and Bill MuirFish Ecology Division, Northwest Fisheries Science Center, NOAA Fisheries2725 Montlake Boulevard East, Seattle, WA 98112


70 s 80 s 99 02

Ocean Conditions

70’s 80’s 99-02

Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)




Working hypothesis: Biological Communities significantly different under cold and warm PDO’s

Figures courtesy of Kirstin K. Holsman, NWFSC, Seattle, WA


Ocean Conditions different under cold and warm PDO’s

13 year time series of zooplankton sampling off Newport shows that monthly anomalies of copepod species richness are correlated with the PDO

As with SST, there are time lags of a few months between the 4-year “cold periods” and “warm periods”. Cold periods are characterized by “cold water” copepods and warm periods by “warm water” copepods


Ocean Conditions different under cold and warm PDO’s

1999

2001

Sea surface temperature anomalies May 1998-2010

2007

2004

2002

2005

2006

2008

2003

2000

2009

2010


Ocean Conditions different under cold and warm PDO’s

2010 Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies

Feb

Jan

Mar

Apr

Jun

Aug

May

Jul

Oct

Sep


Predicting Salmon Runs – William Peterson, NWFSC different under cold and warm PDO’s

http://www.nwfsc.noaa.gov/features/predicting_salmon_runs.cfm


Zooplankton Densities 2010 different under cold and warm PDO’s

Shallow Station

Mooring breaks loose

Deep Station


Forage Fish Abundance 2010 different under cold and warm PDO’s

Mooring breaks loose


June 2010 Juvenile Salmon Survey Catches different under cold and warm PDO’s


September 2010 Juvenile Salmon Survey Catches different under cold and warm PDO’s


2010 summary
2010 Summary different under cold and warm PDO’s

  • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big


2010 summary1
2010 Summary different under cold and warm PDO’s

  • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big

  • Warm ocean in winter but turned around by late spring (maybe a little too late to help)


2010 summary2
2010 Summary different under cold and warm PDO’s

  • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big

  • Warm ocean in winter but turned around by late spring (maybe a little too late to help)

  • Not a good spring for spring Chinook, chum, sockeye, coho, and steelhead


2010 summary3
2010 Summary different under cold and warm PDO’s

  • Early El Nino and positive PDO – but not very big

  • Warm ocean in winter but turned around by late spring (maybe a little too late to help)

  • Not a good spring for spring Chinook, chum, sockeye, coho, and steelhead

  • Summer was anomalously cool (negative PDO)– good for fall Chinook


What do we expect in 2011
What do we expect in 2011 different under cold and warm PDO’s


What do we expect in 20111
What do we expect in 2011 different under cold and warm PDO’s

Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival


What do we expect in 20112
What do we expect in 2011 different under cold and warm PDO’s

Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival

Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume)


What do we expect in 20113
What do we expect in 2011 different under cold and warm PDO’s

Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival

Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume)

Fewer sardines – they like warm ocean


What do we expect in 20114
What do we expect in 2011 different under cold and warm PDO’s

Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival

Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume)

Fewer sardines – they like warm ocean

More anchovy, smelt, and herring – cool species


What do we expect in 20115
What do we expect in 2011 different under cold and warm PDO’s

Continued La Nina, negative PDO, and cool ocean conditions – Good salmon marine survival

Relatively high spring flows – also good for marine survival (larger plume)

Fewer sardines – they like warm ocean

More anchovy, smelt, and herring – cool species

More large copepods – food for things that Chinook and coho eat and food for sockeye and chum salmon


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