James I. Ausman, M.D., Ph.D.
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 130

James I. Ausman, M.D., Ph.D. Editor SURGICAL NEUROLOGY Professor of Neurosurgery PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 77 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

James I. Ausman, M.D., Ph.D. Editor SURGICAL NEUROLOGY Professor of Neurosurgery UCLA & University of Illinois at Chicago Clinical Healthcare Consultant Navigant Consultants, Inc; Strategic Planning and Market Research for the Healthcare Industry Medical Expert KMIR 6 TV.

Download Presentation

James I. Ausman, M.D., Ph.D. Editor SURGICAL NEUROLOGY Professor of Neurosurgery

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

James I. Ausman, M.D., Ph.D.Editor

SURGICAL NEUROLOGYProfessor of Neurosurgery

UCLA &University of Illinois at ChicagoClinical Healthcare Consultant

Navigant Consultants, Inc; Strategic Planning and Market Research for the Healthcare Industry

Medical Expert

KMIR 6 TV


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

What your Future will be Like

And

How to Plan for It


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

What is the likelihood that what we are doing today in Medicine and Neurosurgery will be the same at the end of the 21st century?

NONE


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The World We Live In:

Present and Future


The future of healthcare

The Future of Healthcare

  • We are in a wartime economy- will last for years

  • Our GNP will grow at 3% / year not 7%

  • Healthcare is 16% of the GNP in the USA-2006

    • Health insurance premiums went up >7% this year

  • In 2015 it will be 20% of the GNP

  • 2 trillion dollars will be spent on healthcare this year

  • The Government controls 45% of healthcare expenditures; this % will rise to 49%

  • Others bill at Medicare or % of Medicare rates

  • There will be no more money available for doctors or hospitals


The future of healthcare1

The Future of Healthcare

  • How will you make money in this environment?

    • Cut costs

    • Larger group

    • Efficient operation

    • Volume with good payers

    • Find other ways to generate revenue


The economy in the future

The Economy in the Future

  • We are in a global economy

  • What is happening in Industry?

    • Mergers and acquisitions

    • Large corporations

    • Multinational corporations

    • Competition on the basis of price; companies need to survive; have become larger, global

    • Healthcare costs increasing to industry

    • Employees have larger copays

    • Healthcare costs are going up; no one likes it

    • Companies are cutting retirement benefits


The economy in the future1

The Economy in the Future

  • Healthcare

    • Has large players: Government, Insurance Co, Hospitals

  • Physicians

    • 50% solo or small group (3 or less)

    • Disunited

    • How can you play effectively in this market?

      • Failing business strategy


The economy in the future2

The Economy in the Future

  • How do you survive in this market?

    • Become larger for greater market power

      • Greater market share

      • More political power

    • What are you doing to help the community in this time of limited funds?


Neurosurgery the national picture

Neurosurgery: The national picture

  • 3000 neurosurgeons in the USA

    • Few specialized

    • Most selling the same products

    • Most in major cities

  • Competition

    • Interventional neuroradiology- advancing technology

    • Ortho, plastic, vascular surgery: spine, peripheral nerve, vascular

  • Because less pay from payers

    • Increased volume

    • No time for R&D

    • No chance to advance

  • Where are you going to be in 10 years with this strategy?


Neurosurgery the national picture1

Neurosurgery: The national picture

  • This is a formula for certain business failure

    • No R&D

    • No new products

    • No differentiation from competitors

  • Solution:

    • Merge with others

    • R&D

    • New strategy: larger group


Neurosurgery the case market

Neurosurgery: The case market

  • 17,000 new primary brain tumors ( 5/ neurosurgeon/ year)

  • 100,000+ metastases (33/ neurosurgeon/ year)

  • 700,000 new strokes per year

  • 25,000 SAH , aneurysms & AVMS

  • 200,000 carotid endarterectomies

  • Epilepsy: 2,000,000 +people

  • 1-2% have Parkinsons’s

  • Back pain most common cause of loss of work

    • only 10% need surgery

  • Pain is the most common symptom of patients


Neurosurgery the case market1

Neurosurgery: The case market

  • Solutions:

  • Concentrate on large volumes in market

    • Expand market share: Provide full service

    • Need to have a larger group to do this

    • Need time for R&D

    • Subspecialize

    • What neurosurgeons are doing with the figures above

    • If you choose a niche, be a “Focused Factory”


Physicians a psychological analysis

Physicians: A psychological analysis

  • Intelligent, Individualistic

  • Ego driven

  • Know it all

  • “Do what I tell you”

  • Cannot work together

  • Unwilling to change

  • Politically naïve

  • Poor negotiators and business mentality

  • Used to arguing

  • Risk Averse


Your business adversary a psychological analysis

Your business adversary: A psychological analysis

  • Goal Directed

  • Intelligent

  • Ego driven

  • One leader speaks, the rest follow

  • Have a strategy

  • Organized, work as a team

  • Will change to gain market share and succeed

  • Politically savvy

  • Good negotiators and business mentality

  • Work as a team (I pay your salary: do what I say)

  • Risk Takers


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Which of these two opponents will win at the negotiating table?


Your business adversary a psychological analysis1

Your business adversary: A psychological analysis

  • The world you compete in is a business world not the OR

  • Learn the RULES


Physicians a psychological analysis1

Physicians: A psychological analysis

  • Solutions

    • Hire people who believe as you do

      • Those who do not fit don’t hire or fire

    • Change your way of dealing with people

    • Get a Strategic Plan


How to negotiate to get what you want

How to negotiate to get what you want

  • Physicians say, “ Do what I say now”

    (no negotiation)


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

“Be happy with half-victories and come back for the rest later”-

Lyle French, M.D. As he went from Chairman of Neurosurgery to VP of Health Sciences


What your patients think of your service

What your patients think of your service

  • Hard to get an appointment; Automated answering service

  • Waits to see doctor; patient’s time is not valuable

  • Fragmented care; specialized care; go to multiple doctors; lost time & $

  • “96,000 patient deaths per year caused by doctors”

  • Doctors make too much money; (look at the cars they drive)

  • Expectations are unlimited

    • Press; doctors; self-centered generation (boomers)

  • Patients do not want to pay co-pays

    • But rather spend on VCR, golf or etc

  • They understand some of the system problems affecting you


What your patients think of your service1

What your patients think of your service

  • Solutions:

    • You must deal with patients’ perceptions, not reality! The customer is right!

    • Change your way of doing business

    • Better PR: locally, nationally

    • Academic Centers are the worst at service

      • can only leverage their unique treatments

    • You must work like you never have enough business (Avis)

    • Do you have an unlisted phone number?

    • Is your office phone automated?

    • YOU ARE IN THE SERVICE INDUSTRY; PROVIDE SERVICE!


The future nursing and other paramedical professions

The Future: Nursing and other paramedical professions

  • Nursing

    • Shortage now

    • Worse in the Future

    • Nurses seeking other careers with better respect, pay and independence

    • Climbing pay

  • Paramedical Professions

    • Growth industry

    • Climbing pay


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

  • What did you learn from analyzing your business from the available information today?


Solutions so far

Solutions so far

  • Healthcare environment

    • Cut costs; larger group; efficient operation; volume- payer

  • Global Economy

    • Larger group for market and political power

  • Neurosurgery: national market place

    • Present formula is a business failure; Differentiate yourself from your competition

    • Merge; R&D; larger group

  • Neurosurgery: case market

    • Concentrate on large volume: Tumors: mets and others; pain and spine; Movement disorders; epilepsy; vascular disease; need larger group


Solutions so far1

Solutions so far

  • Physician personality

    • Hire people who believe as you do

    • changeyour behavior

    • Get advice and strategic plan

  • Opponent’s personality

    • You are playing in a business marketplace not the OR; Learn the rules

  • How to negotiate

    • Be happy with 1/2 victories and come back for the rest later; Change; learn to negotiate

  • What do your patients (customers) think of your business?

    • Change; PR; Customer focus; You are in the Service Business


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

What about your own Personal Future?Do you have enough money to retire?If you retire at 65 and live to 90sHow much money will you need to allow you to live the way you want for 30 years?At least 10 million dollars in the bank at retirement or more


The future trends in neuroscience research

The Future: Trends in Neuroscience Research

Where research is leading us


Where neuroscience research is taking us

Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us

  • Neurosurgery:

    • Less invasive approaches to neurosurgical diseases

      • Aneurysms, AVMs, pituitary tumors, some spine

    • Successful molecular treatments for neoplastic diseases

      • CML, medulloblastoma, meningioma, ALL

      • Will eliminate skull base surgery for tumors, and other grossly invasive approaches for neoplasms

    • Imaging indicating functional significance of every part of brain.

      • damage to cognitive brain functions by standard neurosurgical procedures

    • Will change neurosurgery to a minimally invasive technical specialty


Where neuroscience research is taking us1

Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us

  • Neurosurgery:

    • Understanding molecular level dynamic genetic and biochemical processes

    • Will need constant evaluation and changes in treatment

      • Trauma, ischemia, spinal cord injury, spinal cord repair

    • Care of the Recovering and Injured Brain

      • Neurointensive Care.

      • Will overlap interests of neurologists who will be treating different diseases similarly

      • Neurosurgeon will become less surgical. Will there be a neurosurgeon?


Where neuroscience research is taking us2

Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us

  • Neurology: chronic and progressive diseases

    • Will have genetic and molecular bases

    • Imaging will reveal causes of these

    • Neurology and Neurosurgery will overlap

      • Pain: Genetic differences; Fiber tract differences

      • Will require knowledge of psychiatrist, neurologist, neurosurgeon and rehabilitationist to treat patient successfully


Where neuroscience research is taking us3

Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us

  • Psychiatry:

    • Cognitive & Functional Diseases will have a genetic basis.

    • These disorders will be understood in molecular terms.

    • Imaging will reveal basis for cognitive and functional disorders

    • Psychiatry and Neurology will merge with Neurosurgery


Where neuroscience research is taking us4

Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us

  • Neurosurgery, Neurology and Psychiatry:

    • We are all looking at the same brain

  • INTERDISCIPLINARY RELATIONSHIP

  • In academic centers, Basic Neuroscientists will join clinical neuroscientists

    • Grants will be awarded to teams of neuroscientists

    • Examples at present:

      • Stroke

      • Pain

      • Epilepsy (MINCEP)

      • Movement Disorders


The future the neurosciences market

The Future: The Neurosciences Market


The neurosciences market is large but diffuse

The Neurosciences Market Is Large But Diffuse

Estimated Prevalence in U.S. (in thousands)

Total = 15 million – 90 million(with cognitive, functional and behavioral disorders contributing 75 million 1 /3 of the population)


Value of a neurosurgeon

Value of a Neurosurgeon

Average Hospital Inpatient and Outpatient Revenue Generated Annually (millions)


Inpatient care is more concentrated at teaching hospitals

Inpatient Care Is More Concentrated at Teaching Hospitals

Percent of U.S. Discharges at Teaching Hospitals

All Discharges = 22%

1


Market realities emerging physician shortages

Neurosurgery

Supply

Neurosurgeons Practicing in U.S.

Available U.S. Neurosurgical Positions

Demand

Market Realities: Emerging Physician Shortages

  • Supply and Demand

Shortages Continue for Other Specialists

  • Spurred by declines in specialty residencies, demand for select specialists are expected to rise (1994 vs. 1999)

    • Orthopedic residents declined 9%

    • Radiology residents declined 13%

    • Oncology residents declined 63%

Source: AANS Bulletin; Winter, 2003; Too Many? Too Few?


Market realities a sellers market

Neurosurgeon Wanted

February 3, 2005

  • $600,000 salary 1st year (maybe higher)

  • 1 in 5 call

  • Southern Ohio metro city

Two Neurosurgeons Wanted

February 10, 2005

  • $650,000 base salary

  • $50,000 sign-on bonus

  • 18 months to partnership

  • No managed care

  • Team support and group approach in

    the OR

  • Located in Midwest

Market Realities:A Sellers Market

  • How Competitive Is Your Market/Organization?


Ed coverage forcing the issue

ED Coverage Forcing the Issue

% Hospitals Naming Specialty Among Hardest to Secure ED Coverage (n=1,501)

#1

For facilities with resident coverage, this situation has been particularly problematic due to new residency work week limits

Source: Tiber Group analysis; AHA and The Lewin Group TrendWatch (March, 2001); Governance Institute


Less hospital physician competition

Less Hospital-Physician Competition

Distribution of Physicians by Group Size (2001)

Capital Cost of Neuroscience Equipment


Aging populace requires more hospitalization

Baby Boomers today

Aging Populace Requires More Hospitalization

Rate Per 1,000 Population

50% of Today’s Population

Source: National Hospital Discharge Survey, Center for Disease Control and Prevention, 1998


Expect long term rise in u s hospital admissions

1999

1991

1989

1981

1983

1985

1987

1995

1997

1993

Expect Long-Term Rise in U.S. Hospital Admissions

U.S. Hospital Admissions

(Millions)


The neuroscience market summary

The Neuroscience Market-Summary

  • There is a large volume of people with neurological and functional disorders- 90 million

  • The number of neurosurgeons and neurologists is decreasing

  • Many in solo or small group (<3) group practice

  • Neuroscience is “expensive-equipment intensive”

  • Complex neurological conditions seen more at academic or major centers

  • Neurosurgery is big IDP revenue generator, second to cardiac; hospitals need to find other sources of revenue

  • Baby boomers will increase demand for services in the next 20 years; neurosciences will benefit

  • People are living longer with chronic diseases

  • Research dollars are increasing

  • Neuroscience is next big area for hospital program growth


The neuroscience market summary1

The Neuroscience Market-Summary

  • How should you take advantage of these changes and opportunities?

  • Should you do what you are doing or change?

  • Academic Medical Centers? What strategy?


Future neurosciences healthcare delivery

Future-Neurosciences & Healthcare Delivery

  • Scientific knowledge doubles every 7 years

    • Impossible for one physician to know everything

  • HOW ARE YOU GOING TO KEEP UP IN THIS RAPIDLY CHANGING WORLD?


Future neurosciences healthcare delivery1

Future-Neurosciences & Healthcare Delivery

YOU WILL HAVE NO CHOICE BUT TO SPECIALIZE

THUS, YOU MUST WORK IN GROUPS

THE LARGER, THE BETTER

You will be more satisfied professionally

Have more time to be good

To be with your family

To learn

BUT

What will you give up to get there?

Some independence

  • New methods of compensation in a group. Who is most important?


Future neurosciences healthcare delivery2

Future-Neurosciences & Healthcare Delivery

What if you decide not to Change?

Where will you be?

Alone

With less satisfaction, less knowledge than your peers, no power,

And less money


Future neurosciences healthcare delivery3

Future-Neurosciences & Healthcare Delivery

What happened to the Mom and Pop Store around the corner?

WALMART

What happened to Chrysler, the Steel Companies

What happened to the community hospital?

What Happened to the University of Minnesota Medical Center?

Does the Mayo Clinic have it right?


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Given all the things you have learned AboutThe world we live inYour Personal Family NeedsThe Neurosceinces marketThe Progress of NeuroscienceWhat is you Plan to Succeed in this World?Will your present Strategy Work?NOT A CHANCE


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Minneapolis-St.Paul Neurosurgical MarketGood NeurosurgeonsKnow & respect each otherFragmented; CompetingHospitals have the PowerNeurosurgeons don’t Is there a better solution?


Some solutions

Some Solutions


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: What can we do?

  • Do your market research

  • Assess your strengths and weaknesses

  • Get a strategic plan


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: General Principles

  • Implementing your strategic plan

  • Add neuroclinicians

  • Select programs


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: General Principles

  • Form a larger group to gain power in the marketplace

  • Start with (?size) group (How are you going to build this corporation?)

    • Recruit

      • Costly

        • need financing

        • Get loan; partners at risk

      • Advantages

        • Build with people who have your interest

        • No arguments

        • New knowledge with young people


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: General Principles

  • Form a larger group to gain power in the marketplace

    • Merge

      • Shortens time to build

      • Already tested people; experience

      • Disadvantages

        • Independent

        • Set in ways

        • Philosophy differences

    • Become Employed

      • Work with hospital for win-win


Physician compensation continued

Physician Compensation (continued)

  • Neurosurgery

Source: MGMA - Physician Compensation and Production Survey

2004 Report Based on 2003 Data (n=169)


Physician productivity continued

Physician Productivity (continued)

  • Neurosurgery

  • How productive are your physicians?

Source: MGMA - Physician Compensation and Production Survey

2004 Report Based on 2003 Data (n=169)


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: General Principles

  • Select Programs for Development

  • Super-specialize (Can everyone do everything in your corporation?)

    • Concentrate cases

      • Vascular, spine, peds, tumor

  • Expand(How can you get the best products for your customers?)

    • Neurologists

      • Screen patients

    • Psychiatry

      • Pain evaluation; other

    • Rehab

    • Imaging

      • interventional

    • Plastics

    • Ortho

    • Psychologists

  • Other ideas


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: General Principles

  • Other ideas: How are you going to make this corporation successful?

    • Serve community needs

      • Get community on your side

    • PR

    • R&D

    • Education

      • Industry

      • Schools

    • Compensation

      • May need new compensation schemes


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: General Principles

  • Satellites

    • Allows expansion and produces income for growth; direct to bottom line

    • Win Win for community and AMC

    • Do not drain from satellite to AMC

    • Do what can be done there; transfer rest;

    • “Close beats far”

    • Develop neurosurgery there

    • They want to make money too!


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: General Principles

  • Other businesses

    • Franchise care to others

    • TV monitoring

    • Sell services to other hospital - ER

  • Politics-get involved

    • Local, state,

  • Focus cases at one hospital; complex cases

    • You are running a multimillion dollar corporation

    • Large group has power to do this

  • Disease Management & Interdisciplinary care


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: General Principles

  • Other ideas

    • Finances

      • Loan

      • Need BUSINESS MANAGER

    • Compensation Schemes

      • Eat what you kill

      • Redistribute

      • Combined economy- value point system

      • Socialism won’t work


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: General Principles

  • NEUROSURGEONS DON’T GET IT!

    • How do you subspecialize? I want to be a generalist. I am as good as X. I just want to practice medicine. Those d--n administrators!

  • GET ADVICE, GET ADVICE, GET ADVICE

    • What do you do if you have a clinical problem?

    • You have to spend money to make money

    • PR, Consultants, Business advice

      • Retired CEO

    • Think like the head of a multimillion dollar corporation, not like a neurosurgeon


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: Academic Medical Centers

  • Academic Medical Centers (AMC) are failing in the market place

    • Because of need for money, forced clinical enterprises to support center

    • Less time devoted to research

    • Competition with referral sources

    • Cannot compete on amenities and convenience

    • Lose leverage that distinguishes AMC from community

    • Failing strategy

    • Doctors do not understand economics, market principles, or business strategy

    • Teaching, Research and Practice is the fall back position


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: Academic Medical Centers

  • AMC

    • Need to leverage strength

      • huge resources and research base

    • For future that is interdisciplinary and disease management,

      • AMCs can do this easier than anyone in the market

    • Need to leverage research, basic science, engineering, other disciplines

    • Be in forefront of medicine and science

    • Compliment community physicians

    • Doctors need to change! ( So does the administration)

    • Pursue strategies outside the administration; You will not make money with their plans

  • AMCs are suffering from ACADEMENTIA


Spine program

Spine Program


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

250,000 instrumented fusions done in 2004, 3X as many as in 1994

$750,000,000 in 2004 by Gov’t on fusions

National bill for hardware is $2.5 billion a year

“Little scientific evidence fusion works better than laminectomy..”

Up to 4X more money for a fusion……( for the doctor)

2-4X as much for the hospital

“Fewer than 50% necessary”- Ed Benzel


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

NEJM; 350; 2003


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

A Molecular Cure for Arthritis

NEJM 355: 522-523, 2005


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

James I. Ausman, M.D., Ph.D.

Surg. Neurol. 60:469, 2003;

61:313, 2004


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: Special Centers

  • Spine Centers: Is this the way to go?

    • Pays $

    • Instrumentation costly for hospital

    • No proof treatments work

    • Government will interfere; NY is already interfering

    • “Death of Spine Surgery”

    • Surgery is only 10% of the market; What about the other 90%


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Solutions: Special Centers

  • What to do: Set up a SPINE AND PAIN CENTER

    • Captures rest of Spine Pain market (other 90%)

    • Interdisciplinary

    • Psychologists

    • OT, PT

    • Physiatry

    • Accupuncture, blocks

    • Other

    • Surgery

  • Strategy is to keep the patient whatever happens to the politics or reimbursement


Pearls of wisdom from the business community

Pearls of Wisdom from the Business Community

  • The Secret of Innovation:

    • “Find our what everyone else is doing, and don’t do it!

  • The Ultimate Market Control:

    • “You physicians are the only ones who can do what you do. You can control the market totally, and no one can do anything about it. I do not understand why physicians have given up their power in the market place!


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Future fields of opportunity

Pain and Spine Centers

Comprehensive Stroke Centers

Neurointensive Care

Functional Neurosurgery

Depression, Obsessive Complusive disorders, Functional disorders

Rehabilitation

Radiosurgery

Cancer Teams

Epilepsy

Psycho-neuro-endo-immunology

Nano medicine

Trauma neurosurgery & care

Peripheral Nerve Treatment


Hospitals vs doctors

Hospitals vs Doctors


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Hospitals, Doctors and the Healthcare System of the Future

  • “Silo Mentality” from the 20th Century

  • Hospitals, doctors and suppliers compete with each other for the healthcare dollar

  • New relationships required

    • Hospitals and doctors will have to cooperate and share risk and reward to compete

  • Joint ventures

  • Hospital administrators will also have to change

  • Those who get it will win in the market place


Doctors secret weapon

Doctors’ Secret Weapon


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Secret Weapon of Doctors in the Future

  • There will be a shortage of physicians in 10 years

  • There is and will be a shortage of neurosurgeons

  • The population will be increasing

  • Baby boomers will want more care

  • Supply Demand equation for physicians

    • Will physicians drop Medicare?

    • Will the government make medicine a “right”?

    • People will pay for quality or……

    • Only if physicians utilize this power properly will they succeed

  • You can decide to work for the hospital and forget all of this aggravation!


What a futurist says about our future

What a Futurist says about our Future

Ray Kurzweil; The Futurist. January February 2006


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Future by Ray Kurzweil

  • The Past 200 years (1800’s)

    • Women lived to 35 years old; today to 85

    • 1/2 day to prepare a meal

    • Physical labor for most things

    • No social safety nets

    • Still Billions live in this manner-2000


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Future by Ray Kurzweil

  • Human scientific progress in Exponential

    • All of the discoveries of the 1900s are equal to 20 years of discoveries at the rate of progress in 2000;

    • By 2100 1000X more progress than today

    • 20 years of progress will be made by 2020

    • 20 years more in 2027


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Future by Ray Kurzweil

  • Overlapping Revolutions:

    • Genetic

    • Nanotechnology

    • Robotic


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Future by Ray Kurzweil

  • Genetic Revolution:

    • Genomics

    • Proteomics

    • Gene therapy

    • Targeted drug therapy

    • Cloning of cells, tissues , and organs


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Future by Ray Kurzweil

  • Nanotechnology Revolution: 2030

    • Microchips under the skin

      • 100s of medicines from wells responding to metabolic changes

      • Telepathic communication

      • Expansion of memories

      • Nanorobots in our bodies destroying disease


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Future by Ray Kurzweil

  • Robotic Revolution: 2030

    • Artificial Intelligence (AI)

      • By 2100 will be trillions of times faster than the human brain

      • Will exceed biological intelligence by 2040

      • AI can handle more complex data than the human brain

      • Computers will have lifelike intelligence


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Future by Ray Kurzweil

  • The Next 100 years

    • Eliminating 50% of preventable diseases will extend life expectancy to 150 years

    • Eliminating 90% to 1000 years

    • Technology will eliminate poverty, disease, pollution and other problems


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Language of Failure

  • “It can’t be done”

  • “I can’t do it”

  • “I am too busy”

  • “That will never work”

  • “I can’t work with that guy-he’s…..”

  • “It’s the system”

  • “What can one person do?”

  • “You can’t fight the government”

  • “But medicine is not a business!”

  • “It’s the government; it’s the HMO or insurer…..”

  • “This guy is out of touch”

  • “These changes will take years”

  • Have you become accustomed to losing? Are you a loser?


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

The Language of Success

“I know all the reasons why it can be done,

now find a way to do it!”


I don t take no for an answer

“I don’t take NO for an answer!”

I am not interested in popularity

I am interested in results


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Final Question

  • Will I be successful and make money with these ideas?

    What choice do you have?

    The strategies being used by your colleagues are failing. (Practice and academia)

    You have no choice but to change


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

A few last notes

Do you think you are going to RETIRE?

If you live into your 90’s, do you have enough money put away to support your idea of retirement?

Are you Happy?


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

What about this idea of Retirement?Can you or the country afford it?Can you stand it?Does the Brain Grow with Age?What are you going to do with the rest of your life?


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Nature 420: 788-794; 2002


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

There is only one RULE

THE PATIENT COMES FIRST

If your put the patient first, you will never have to worry about money,

If you put money first, you will lose both


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

What is the likelihood that what we are doing today in Medicine and Neurosurgery will be the same at the end of the 21st century?

NONE


Thank you

Thank You

“THINK DIFFERENT”

Apple Computer

[email protected]


Future trends and predictions

Future Trends and Predictions


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Whom do people trust?

AMA News: 2/9/06


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Future Trends and Predictions

  • World Population is 6.5 Billion ; 9.0 billion by 2050

  • 1 billion are connected to each other by the Internet

    • In 15 years , majority of world will be connected

  • Increasing numbers of people are poor, unhealthy and lack access to education

  • 60% of our life support systems are gone or in danger of collapse

    • Forests and oceans absorb 3 -3.5 billion tons of carbon/year

    • We generate 7 billion; Rest goes into atmosphere

    • With 2.5 billion more people by 2050; 14 billion will be generated


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Future Trends and Predictions

1.1 billion people do not have access to safe water

2.6 billion lack adequate sanitation

Only 17% of world’s people live in countries with free press

Conventional military force has little effect on civil war, terrorism and crime

WMD will be available to many

Oil reserves have peaked and will decline


James i ausman m d ph d editor surgical neurology professor of neurosurgery

Future Trends and Predictions

  • US traffic jams alone waste 2.3 billion gallons of gas

  • Military Spending is 1 billion dollars

  • Income from crime is 2 billion dollars

  • 3-4 billion have access to good health and living conditions

  • The Futurist Jan-Feb 2006, Glenn, J and Gordon, T: Update on the State of the Future


How we are delivering healthcare now

How we are delivering healthcare now

  • SPECIALTY CARE

  • Patient must see a series of specialists to obtain solution for medical problem

  • Inefficient

  • Delays diagnosis

  • Patient loses time and money by waiting

  • Industry loses time and money of employee


How will we deliver healthcare in the future

How will we deliver healthcare in the future?

  • DISEASE MANAGEMENT

  • Back Pain is the Disease Management Category

  • vs.

  • The fragmented specialty care of Neurosurgical/ Orthopedic treatment, Rehabilitation, Epidural injections from Anesthesiologists, Psychological care, or Rehabilitation

  • With DISEASE MANAGEMENT the patient sees all the specialists in one setting and the disease problem is solved in that setting. This is “One Stop Shopping” or “The Focused Factory Concept”

  • HOW WILL YOU BE DIFFERENT THAN YOUR COMPETITION?


Where neuroscience research is taking us5

Where Neuroscience Research Is Taking Us

  • INTERDISCIPLINARY CARE and DISEASE MANAGEMENT will Distinguish you in the marketplace from others

  • The INTERDISCIPLINARY relationship of neurologists, neurosurgeons and psychiatrists with the basic neuroscientists will

    • give the neuroscience group power in the academic center and the ability to obtain research grants.

    • This relationship will also promote the pre-eminence of the neuroscience group in the community.


Relationship between genetics and behavior

Relationship between Genetics and Behavior

  • Experiment:

    • Two groups of subjects: 1/2 with long form, 1/2 with short form

    • Each presented fear image

    • fMRI scanned brain and found R amygdyla activity

    • R amygdala activity was significantly increased in those with short form who also had more fearful response

  • Study links genetic variation to differences in brain activity

  • Did not verify serotonin activity in brains

  • Reason for differences in behavior of individuals?

    • Criminal activity, suicide, affective illness, abnormal levels of anxiety


Bio psychosocial aspects of pain

Bio-psychosocial aspects of pain

Pain can become a learned behavior

imaging shows more activation of primary motor sensory cortex and

patient has more sensitivity

H. Flor ( Lancet 357:1763, 2001)believes that structural changes occur in pain pathways with chronicity

leading to heightened excitibility in pain

Feeling pain may be generated without stimulus

Phantom limb

Stimulation of limb can reduce somatosensory field of pain (Adv Neurol 93: 195-204, 2003)

A New form of treatment based on Plasticity of Neurons


Bio psychosocial aspects of pain1

Bio-psychosocial aspects of pain

Chronic back pain- Flor, H.(Arthritis Rheum. 53:343-350, 2005)

With “solicitous spouse” present

exacerbated response

Imaging shows increased activity in Anterior Cingulate Cortex

Anticipation of pain can produce pain ( Brain 127:2339-2347, 2004)


Physician compensation

Physician Compensation

  • 2004 Neuro Physician Compensation

  • National Comparison

Source: MGMA-Physician Compensation and Production Survey – 2004 Report based on 2003 data


Physician productivity

Physician Productivity

  • Median RVUs

Source: MGMA-Physician Compensation and Production Survey – 2004 Report based on 2003 data


  • Login