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European Carbon Sinks Modeling Status, Data, Analytical Gaps, EUFASOM. Uwe A. Schneider Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change Hamburg University. Sink Modeling Status. EU Commission 2002: Potential of European sinks from both agriculture and forestry unclear

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European Carbon Sinks Modeling Status, Data, Analytical Gaps, EUFASOM

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European Carbon SinksModeling Status, Data, Analytical Gaps, EUFASOM

Uwe A. Schneider

Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change

Hamburg University


Sink Modeling Status

  • EU Commission 2002: Potential of European sinks from both agriculture and forestry unclear

  • Fast analysis needed for

    • International negotiation of Kyoto Protocol (define own position and understand others)

    • EU emission trading system


EU Emission Trading - Sinks

  • No initial allowance to use credits from carbon sinks projects such as forestry to meet emission targets

  • Review of the emissions trading directive in 2006: if reporting and accounting uncertainties surrounding sinks can be lifted, it leaves open the possibility of using the credits from 2008.


Integrated Sink Enhancement Assessment (INSEA) Project

  • Funded by European Commission to address analytical gap of carbon sinks in European Agricultural and Forestry

  • January 2004 – July 2006


  • Common Data

  • Soil

  • Forests

  • Climate

  • Technologies

  • Markets

  • Model Results

Geographical Analysis

  • Biophysical Models

  • EPIC

  • PICUS

  • Economic Models

  • Hohenheim

  • AROPAJ

  • EFI

  • EU-FASOM

  • AGRIPOL

INSEA Model Structure


Available Data

  • Soils (MOSES, JRC)

  • Climate (MARS)

  • Forest Inventories (EFI)

  • Conventional Management (FADN, EUROCARE, EUROSTAT, IIASA)

    Problems: Confidentiality restrictions, Data quality, Property rights


Soil DataSource: Luca Montanarella, Joint Research Center, Ispra, Italy


Analytical and Data Gaps

  • Farm level impacts of alternative agricultural and forest management

    • Costs

    • Inputs

    • Outputs

    • Environmental Impacts


Addressing the Gaps

  • Engineering Analysis

  • Link to other (European) projects

    • GREENGRASS - Sources and Sinks of Greenhouse Gases from managed European Grasslands and Mitigation Strategies

    • CARBOINVENT - Multi-Source Inventory Methods For Quantifying Carbon Stocks And Stock Changes In European Forests

    • MIDAIR - Greenhouse Gas Mitigation for Organic and Conventional Dairy Production

    • CARBO-AGE - Age-related dynamics of carbon exchange in European forests


European Non-Food Agriculture (ENFA) Project

  • Starting in 2005

  • Includes detailed biofuel analysis

  • Environmental impact analysis consistent with food options

  • Integration in EUFASOM

  • Analysis of fuel directives


Benefits for North American Sink Analysis

  • Refinement of European Data in global models

  • Parallel links, i.e. USFASOM and EUFASOM

  • Extrapolation of European Strategies currently not modeled in US


European Forest and Agricultural Sector Model (EU-FASOM)

  • Model built from scratch

  • Uses conceptual approach of (US)-FASOM

  • Mathematical programming based optimization model

  • Partial equilibrium


EU-FASOM - Deviations from USFASOM

  • Texture based land quality classifications

  • Rotations vs. individual crops

  • Dynamic soil carbon rates

  • Validation


Dynamic Soil Carbon Coefficients

  • Soil-climate-regime andsoilmanagement history determines soil carbon coefficients

  • Various strategies can be a source or sink depending on the carbon level of the associated land unit


Why changing coefficients?


Problem of Dimensionality

  • Consider a forward looking decision model with 20 alternative soil management practices and 30 time periods

  • The number of possible management sequences equals 2030 ~ 1E+39

  • Many models yield more combinations (regions, crops, …)


Technical Implementation

  • Details available in paper available from author

  • X = land use variable

  • S = Soil carbon variable

  • t = time index

  • r = region index

  • i = soil type index

  • u = land use index

  • o = soil carbon class index

  • s = sequestration coefficient

  • c = carbon content coefficient

  • = soil carbon class transistion probability


Soil Carbon Class Distribution

Calculation of probabilities is not shown but available in the paper

Soil Carbon Levels


Soil Carbon Change

a)

b)


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