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CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM AND REGION

CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM AND REGION . Prof.Dr. Nguyen Duc Ngu Center for Hydrometeorology and Environment Prof. Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu GEF/SGP Vietnam National Steering Committee. 1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE’S CHARACTERISTICS IN VIETNAM 2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS

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CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM AND REGION

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  1. CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM AND REGION Prof.Dr. Nguyen Duc Ngu Center for Hydrometeorology and Environment Prof. Dr. Nguyen Trong Hieu GEF/SGP Vietnam National Steering Committee

  2. 1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE’S CHARACTERISTICS IN VIETNAM • 2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS • 3. CURRENT STATUS ON GREEN HOUSE GAS (GHGs) EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM • 4. CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS IN VIETNAM • 5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM

  3. 1. OVERVIEW OF CLIMATE’S CHARACTERISTICS IN VIETNAM 1.1 Monsoon tropical climate in a penisular of a greate European – Asian continent + Internal tropic heat radiation + Monsoon circle in South Eastern Asia + Diverse patterns of humidity and temperature + Much of natural disasters: hoarfrost. storms. typhoons. droughts…

  4. 1.2 Parameters of some basic factors + Total heat radiation: 85-190 kcal/cm2/year + Balanced heat radiation: 40- 120kcal/cm2/year + Total number of sun shire hours: 1400-3000 hour/year + Average temperature: 13-28C (-3.2 – 42.5) + Average rainfall: 700- 5000 mm + Number of cold front (FRL): 26 + Number of tropical cyclones: 11(in Southern China Sea). 6.9(Vietnam)

  5. 1.3 CLIMATE SEASONS • Climate season: V- X • Cold season: XI- IV • Rainy season: • Hot. humid monsoon (Northern region. Central Highland. Southern region) : V– X • Cold. dry monsoon (Northern Central region. Southern Central region): IX-XII • Storm season: VI- XII • Drought season: + Northern region. Central Highland. Southern region : XI – IV + Northern Central region. Central region: VI- VII + Southern Central region : III- VIII

  6. 1.4 Region-based climate classification • Figure 1: Climate region in Vietnam

  7. 2. CLIMATE CHANGE AND CLIMATE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS • Table 2.1: Standard variation and deviation of frequency FRL

  8. 2.2 Table 2.5: Frequency of tropical cyclones. start. mature and end

  9. 2.3 CHANGES IN TEMPERATURETable 2.6: Standard variation of some features of temperature in some typical locations (0C).

  10. 2.4 CHANGES IN RAINFALL PATTERN • Table 2.7: frequency of coldest and hottest months

  11. 2.5 CHANGES IN RAINY SEASON Table 2.8: Standard variation (S; mm) and variation of rainfall (Sr; %) measured in some typical locations

  12. 2.6 TRENDS IN CLIMATE CHANGE

  13. Variations in years and rainfall pattern in hanoi 3000 2500 2000 R(mm) 1500 1000 y = 0.3391x + 1644.8 500 n?m

  14. Significant signs of Climate Change trends • Less dizzily rain • Less mist • Increased or decreased rainfall in centers • Storms and tropical pressures tend to happen more at the end of the season • Increase in frequency and intensity of droughts

  15. 3. GHGs EMISSIONS IN VIETNAM3.1. GHG emission inventory in 1994Table 3.1 GHS emission of power-consuming sectors

  16. 3.2 GHG emission inventory in 1998 • Table 3.2 Emission of CH4 from exploitation activities (thousand tones)

  17. 3.3 Projected emission for 2010 - 2028 • Table 3.3 GHG emission from industrial production 1994 (thousand tones).

  18. 4. SCENARIOS OF CLIMATE CHANGE4.1 Climate Change simulation models in VietnamTable 4.1 Simulation models developed based on GHG emission scenarios

  19. 4.2 Predictions on Climate Change scenarios • Significantly increased temperature North West, North East, and Central Highland • Significantly increased rainfall in rainy season in Northern Central and Southern Central regions • Rainfall in dry season: + Increased rainfall in Northern Central and Southern Central regions + Both increased and decreased rainfall in some other regions • Significant Sea level rise in the second half of 21st century

  20. 5. IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN VIETNAM • Water resources: - Average water flow: - (minus) - Water flow in dry season: - - - Water flow in flood: + + - Lack of water due to severe droughts • Agriculture - Boundary of tropical crops and trees shift to further North - Boundary of sub-tropical crops and trees is shrunk - Increased inundation and severe droughts - Decreased cultivable areas

  21. Forestry: - Shrinking mangrove forests - Boundary of forest of diperocarpacea species move further to the North - Drought-tolerant tree species are expanding - Risks of forest fire and attack by insects increased • Fishery - Changes in balneology and aquatic habitats - Fishery resources are fragmented - Increased population of tropical fish species - Increased population of sub- tropical fish species

  22. Impacts on transport and energy • Impacts on: • Oil exploration facilities in sea • Railways in coastal areas • Power consumption for domestic use • Water flows in rivers and water reservoirs for power generation • Impacts on health • Negative effects on elder’s health • Cardiovascular diseases. tropical diseases…

  23. THANK YOU !

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