economic outlook beyond the recession
Download
Skip this Video
Download Presentation
Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession

Loading in 2 Seconds...

play fullscreen
1 / 45

Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 89 Views
  • Uploaded on

Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession. ESICA Spring Conference The Tides Inn – Irvington, VA May 6, 2010 Ann Battle Macheras Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Overview. National Economic Trends GDP Employment Business Activity Construction Indicators Construction Put in Place

loader
I am the owner, or an agent authorized to act on behalf of the owner, of the copyrighted work described.
capcha
Download Presentation

PowerPoint Slideshow about ' Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession' - livvy


An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Presentation Transcript
economic outlook beyond the recession

Economic Outlook:Beyond the Recession

ESICA Spring Conference

The Tides Inn – Irvington, VA

May 6, 2010

Ann Battle Macheras

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond

overview
Overview
  • National Economic Trends
    • GDP
    • Employment
    • Business Activity

Construction Indicators

    • Construction Put in Place
    • Commercial Vacancy Rates
    • Property Prices

Financial Markets

    • Lending for Commercial Real Estate
    • What to Expect?
real gross domestic product
Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

real gross domestic product1
Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics

non residential fixed investment
Non-Residential Fixed Investment

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

nonfarm payroll employment average monthly change
Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentAverage Monthly Change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

unemployment rate
Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics

retail sales
Retail Sales

% Change:

Jan: 4.1%

Feb: 3.9%

Mar: 7.6%

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

personal income and expenditures
Personal Income and Expenditures

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

ism manufacturing and non manufacturing surveys
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Surveys

Source: Institute of Supply Managers

richmond manufacturing composite index md dc va wv nc sc
Richmond Manufacturing Composite Index:MD, DC, VA, WV, NC, SC

Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics

manufacturing activity regional surveys
Manufacturing Activity – Regional Surveys

Philadelphia

New York

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Federal Reserve Bank of New York

industrial production index 2002 100
Industrial ProductionIndex: 2002=100

Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics

capacity utilization index 2002 100
Capacity UtilizationIndex: 2002=100

Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics

core capital goods
Core Capital Goods

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

u s construction put in place total and private construction
U.S. Construction Put in PlaceTotal and Private Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

u s construction put in place office and commercial construction
U.S. Construction Put in PlaceOffice and Commercial Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

u s construction put in place power and manufacturing construction
U.S. Construction Put in PlacePower and Manufacturing Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

regional construction put in place total private construction
Regional Construction Put in PlaceTotal Private Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

regional construction put in place office construction
Regional Construction Put in PlaceOffice Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

regional construction put in place commercial construction
Regional Construction Put in PlaceCommercial Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

regional construction put in place manufacturing construction
Regional Construction Put in PlaceManufacturing Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

u s commercial real estate
U.S. Commercial Real Estate

Source: CB Richard Ellis/Haver Analytics

regional commercial real estate office vacancy rates
Regional Commercial Real EstateOffice Vacancy Rates

Source: CB Richard Ellis/Haver Analytics

regional commercial real estate industrial availability rates
Regional Commercial Real EstateIndustrial Availability Rates

Source: CB Richard Ellis/Haver Analytics

employment s relationship to residential and commercial property prices
Employment’s Relationship to Residential and Commercial Property Prices

Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index: Dec. 2000=100

Source: Moody’s/REAL, BLS, Haver Analytics

gross domestic product what to expect
Gross Domestic Product – What to Expect?

Note: For the most recent recession, t= 2Q:2009

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics

nonfarm payroll employment what to expect
Nonfarm Payroll Employment – What to Expect?

Note: For the most recent recession, t= June 2009

Source: BLS/Haver Analytics

private nonresidential construction what to expect
Private Nonresidential Construction – What to Expect?

Note: For the most recent recession, t= June 2009

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics

looking ahead for 2010
Looking Ahead for 2010:
  • Positive developments:
    • Job losses tapering off and gains setting in
    • Consumer spending strengthening
    • Business investment and increased activity
    • Global markets reinforcing the recovery
    • Risks to the recovery
      • Stubborn unemployment
      • Housing slow to rebound
      • Commercial real estate – continued drag
      • State and local revenue shortfalls – another drag
links for data
Links for Data:
  • Construction Put In Place:http://www.census.gov/const/www/c30index.html

(the links on the lefthand side take you to additional pages with more detail for each category)

  • Senior Loan Officer Survey – Measures of Supply and Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/SnLoanSurvey/default.htm

  • National Indicators, such as GDP, Personal Consumption, etc. – Charts available in pdf files, with sources listed below

http://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/national_economic_indicators/index.cfm

Ann’s email: [email protected]

slide45

Questions?

… and thank you!

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.

ad