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Economic Outlook: Beyond the Recession. ESICA Spring Conference The Tides Inn – Irvington, VA May 6, 2010 Ann Battle Macheras Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond. Overview. National Economic Trends GDP Employment Business Activity Construction Indicators Construction Put in Place

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Economic outlook beyond the recession

Economic Outlook:Beyond the Recession

ESICA Spring Conference

The Tides Inn – Irvington, VA

May 6, 2010

Ann Battle Macheras

Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond


Overview
Overview

  • National Economic Trends

    • GDP

    • Employment

    • Business Activity

      Construction Indicators

    • Construction Put in Place

    • Commercial Vacancy Rates

    • Property Prices

      Financial Markets

    • Lending for Commercial Real Estate

    • What to Expect?



Us gross domestic product percent change seasonally adjusted annual rate
US Gross Domestic ProductPercent Change, Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics


Real gross domestic product
Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics


Real gross domestic product1
Real Gross Domestic Product

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics


Non residential fixed investment
Non-Residential Fixed Investment

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics


Real non residential fixed investment equipment and software
Real Non-Residential Fixed InvestmentEquipment and Software

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics




Nonfarm payroll employment average monthly change
Nonfarm Payroll EmploymentAverage Monthly Change

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics


Industry growth in the united states percent change in employment from a year ago
Industry Growth in the United StatesPercent Change in Employment from a Year Ago


Unemployment rate
Unemployment Rate

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics


Retail sales
Retail Sales

% Change:

Jan: 4.1%

Feb: 3.9%

Mar: 7.6%

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics


Personal income and expenditures
Personal Income and Expenditures

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics


Ism manufacturing and non manufacturing surveys
ISM Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing Surveys

Source: Institute of Supply Managers


Richmond manufacturing composite index md dc va wv nc sc
Richmond Manufacturing Composite Index:MD, DC, VA, WV, NC, SC

Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics


Manufacturing activity regional surveys
Manufacturing Activity – Regional Surveys

Philadelphia

New York

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Federal Reserve Bank of New York


Industrial production index 2002 100
Industrial ProductionIndex: 2002=100

Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics


Capacity utilization index 2002 100
Capacity UtilizationIndex: 2002=100

Source: Federal Reserve Board/Haver Analytics


Core capital goods
Core Capital Goods

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics



U s construction put in place total and private construction
U.S. Construction Put in PlaceTotal and Private Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics


U s construction put in place office and commercial construction
U.S. Construction Put in PlaceOffice and Commercial Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics


U s construction put in place power and manufacturing construction
U.S. Construction Put in PlacePower and Manufacturing Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics


Regional construction put in place total private construction
Regional Construction Put in PlaceTotal Private Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics


Regional construction put in place office construction
Regional Construction Put in PlaceOffice Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics


Regional construction put in place commercial construction
Regional Construction Put in PlaceCommercial Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics


Regional construction put in place manufacturing construction
Regional Construction Put in PlaceManufacturing Construction

Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics


U s commercial real estate
U.S. Commercial Real Estate

Source: CB Richard Ellis/Haver Analytics


Regional commercial real estate office vacancy rates
Regional Commercial Real EstateOffice Vacancy Rates

Source: CB Richard Ellis/Haver Analytics


Regional commercial real estate industrial availability rates
Regional Commercial Real EstateIndustrial Availability Rates

Source: CB Richard Ellis/Haver Analytics


Employment s relationship to residential and commercial property prices
Employment’s Relationship to Residential and Commercial Property Prices

Moody’s/REAL Commercial Property Price Index: Dec. 2000=100

Source: Moody’s/REAL, BLS, Haver Analytics


Financial Markets Property Prices


Fed funds rate
Fed Funds Rate Property Prices


Lending for commercial real estate net percentage tightening standards
Lending for Commercial Real Estate Property PricesNet Percentage Tightening Standards


Lending for commercial real estate net percentage reporting stronger demand
Lending for Commercial Real Estate Property PricesNet Percentage Reporting Stronger Demand



Gross domestic product what to expect
Gross Domestic Product – What to Expect? Property Prices

Note: For the most recent recession, t= 2Q:2009

Source: BEA/Haver Analytics


Nonfarm payroll employment what to expect
Nonfarm Payroll Employment Property Prices– What to Expect?

Note: For the most recent recession, t= June 2009

Source: BLS/Haver Analytics


Private nonresidential construction what to expect
Private Nonresidential Construction Property Prices– What to Expect?

Note: For the most recent recession, t= June 2009

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics


Looking ahead for 2010
Looking Ahead for 2010: Property Prices

  • Positive developments:

    • Job losses tapering off and gains setting in

    • Consumer spending strengthening

    • Business investment and increased activity

    • Global markets reinforcing the recovery

    • Risks to the recovery

      • Stubborn unemployment

      • Housing slow to rebound

      • Commercial real estate – continued drag

      • State and local revenue shortfalls – another drag


Links for data
Links for Data: Property Prices

  • Construction Put In Place:http://www.census.gov/const/www/c30index.html

    (the links on the lefthand side take you to additional pages with more detail for each category)

  • Senior Loan Officer Survey – Measures of Supply and Demand for Commercial Real Estate Loans:

    http://www.federalreserve.gov/boarddocs/SnLoanSurvey/default.htm

  • National Indicators, such as GDP, Personal Consumption, etc. – Charts available in pdf files, with sources listed below

    http://www.richmondfed.org/research/national_economy/national_economic_indicators/index.cfm

    Ann’s email: [email protected]


Questions? Property Prices

… and thank you!

The views and opinions expressed herein are those of the author. They do not represent an official position of the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond or the Federal Reserve System.


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