Democratization:

1. Democratization: What causes it?

2. What is democratization? 3 basic components: • 1. ending an authoritarian regime; • 2- installing a democratic regime; • 3- consolidating a democratic regime • Different causes may be responsible for each of these developments. (Samuel Huntington) End of an authoritarian regime: capture of Saddam Hussein, Dec. 2003.

3. VARIOUS THEORIES OF THE CAUSES OF DEMOCRATIZATION: A Partial List • High overall level of economic wealth • Relatively equal distribution of wealth • A market economy • Economic development and social modernization

4. More theories on the causes of democratization * A feudal aristocracy at some point in the history of the society * Absence of feudalism in the society * A strong bourgeoisie * High levels of literacy and education * Protestantism * Low levels of civil violence * Low levels of political polarization Does a Protestant ethic lead to democracy? Martin Luther preaching. (picture: http://web.uvic.ca/shakespeare/Library/SLT/ideas/protestantism.html)

5. Yet more theories on the causes of democratization * Political leaders committed to democracy * Experience as a British colony * Traditions of tolerance and compromise * Occupation by a pro-democratic foreign power *Communal homogeneity Experience as a British colony: “The British Colossus,” (1892) depicting British expansionist Cecil Rhodes straddling Britain’s African “possessions”. Picture:http://www.madeira-edu.pt/estabensino/ebssantana/comenius/simbols_of_colonialism.htm

6. 3 “waves” of democratization • 1. 1818-1926: France, Britain, U.S., etc. • 2- 1943-1965: West Germany, Italy, Austria, Japan, Korea, Columbia, Venezuela, etc. • 3. 1974-1995 (?): Portugal, Greece, Turkey (again), Brazil, former East Bloc countries

7. The “Third Wave:” What and Who was the 3rd wave? • about 30 countries with auth systems shifted to democratic political systems in the 1970s and 1980s • they were: * diverse – one-party systems, military regimes, personal dictatorships, racial oligarchy (S. Africa) *many were “second try” democracies – leaders had learned from previously unsuccessful experiences and tried again – Spain, Portugal, Greece, Poland * many emerged after 1989 with fall of the USSR

8. Explaining the Third Wave: key variables • deepening legitimacy problems of authoritarian systems in a world where democratic norms becoming increasingly accepted • global economic growth  expanded middle class • transformation of churches (especially the Catholic Church): from being a defender of the status quo to opponents of authoritarianism • changes in the policies of external actors (i.e. new attitude of the EEC/EU, shift in U.S. policies) • “snowball” effects • (Samuel Huntington)

9. More general explanations: Democratic Correlates Encouraging democracy? Council of Europe flags

10. Historical sequences: Contestation, then inclusion  MUTUAL SECURITY Can’t wait for democracy: an Otpor baby in Serbia Problem: it is very difficult today to legitimately deny contestation

11. 2. Growing wealth that occurs in such a way as to promote the growth of an educated middle class Remember! ECONOMICS ALONE IS NOT ENOUGH TO DETERMINE WHETHER OR NOT A PLACE BECOMES DEMOCRATIC. • Most wealthy countries ARE democratic. • Most democratic countries are wealthy -- India a dramatic exception. • Examples of countries with high incomes in the 1970s that were NOT democratic: • the USSR • Bulgaria • Poland • Hungary, Spain, and Portugal • S.Arabia, Libya, Kuwait had per capita incomes of over $4,000 in the mid 1970s, but they didn’t become democratic • Iraq, Iran, and Singapore -- in the 1980s had high income and low democracy. Why would higher incomes not necessarily bring democracy?

12. 3. Pro-democratic external influences Example: the European Union

13. Words of Advice for would-be democratizers: • mobilize large-scale NON-violent opposition (the evidence suggests that guerrilla movements and revolutions are NOT good ways to bring about democracy, although they may secure liberation) • seek support from the center, and if necessary, the conservative right • restrain the left and keep them from dominating the agenda of the movement • woo sections of the military • seek sympathetic support from the media and other governments, especially the U.S. • Once in power, secure safeguards for the rights of the opposition (Myron Weiner, advice based on large-scale analysis)

14. SEVERAL FACTORS THAT CAN BUT DO NOT NECESSARILY IMPEDE DEMOCRATIZATION 1 – foreign intervention or support for an authoritarian regime Examples: Iran, Chile 2- a highly skewed income 3- significant ethnic diversity with a recent history of conflict; the presence of subcultures • Note: Democracy does exist in countries with highly diverse populations – i.e. Canada, the U.S. • Another note: Problems tend to be worse when there are two main groups, one majority and the other minority. Multi-cultural countries tend to have fewer problems.