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Upper Valley Housing Needs Analysis Briefing Materials. Prepared for Upper Valley Lake Sunapee Region Planning March 2002 (revised July 2002) Study Under Contract To Upper Valley Lake Sunapee Regional Planning Commission Applied Economic Research Laconia New Hampshire

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Upper valley housing needs analysis briefing materials l.jpg

Upper Valley Housing Needs AnalysisBriefing Materials

Prepared for Upper Valley Lake Sunapee Region Planning

March 2002

(revised July 2002)

Study Under Contract To Upper Valley Lake Sunapee Regional Planning Commission

Applied Economic Research

Laconia New Hampshire

Assisted By Economic and Policy Resources, Inc


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Study Area


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Funding Sources

  • Dartmouth College

  • Dartmouth-Hitchcock Medical Center

  • Fleet Bank

  • Housing Vermont

  • Mascoma Saving Bank

  • NH Community Development Finance Authority

  • NH Housing Finance Authority

  • Rockingham Area Community Land Trust

  • Southern Windsor County regional Planning Commission

  • Springfield Housing Authority

  • Two Rivers-Ottauquechee Regional Commission

  • Upper Valley Community Foundation

  • Upper Valley Lake Sunapee Regional Planning Commission

  • VT ACCD Department of Housing & Community Affairs

  • VT Agency of Human Services

  • VT Housing & Conservation Board

  • VT Housing Finance Authority

  • VT State Housing Authority


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Steering Committee Participants

  • Upper Valley Lake Sunapee Regional Planning Commission: Tara Bamford, Interim Executive Director, and Peter Dzewaltowski, Regional Planner

  • Southern Windsor County Regional Planning Commission: Becky Basch, Senior Planner

  • Two Rivers-Ottauquechee Regional Commission: Kathleen Kanz, Regional Planner

  • Twin Pines Housing Trust: Gretchen Rittenhouse, Executive Director

  • Green Mountain Economic Development Corporation: Jim Saudade, Executive Director

  • Vermont Housing & Conservation Board: David Weinstein, Federal Housing Programs Director

  • Vermont Agency of Commerce & Community Development, Department of Housing & Community Affairs, : Steve Coble, Housing Program Coordinator

  • Vermont Housing Finance Authority, : Leslie Black-Plumeau, (former) Research Analyst, and John Fairbanks, Public Affairs Manager

  • New Hampshire Housing Finance Authority : Ted Wilkinson, Development Officer


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Study Goals

  • Examine relationship between area’s economy and housing markets

  • Dimension current housing affordability and choice issues in relationship to area wages and income

  • Project future housing production requirements:

    • Provide sufficient choice

    • Bring prices in line with wages/income

    • Accommodate sufficient labor force to meet employers’ needs


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The Big Picture: Lebanon-Hartford Region

  • Strong job growth and a tight labor market

  • Sub-par housing production during past decade

  • Vacancies all absorbed, limited choice, price/rent appreciation exceeds wage/income growth creating affordability crunch for broad spectrum of region’s workers

  • Strong job growth likely to continue

  • Will require sharply higher rates of production to achieve goals of adequate choice and balance between wages and housing costs.

  • Alternatively, slower nonresidential tax base growth and continued housing issues.


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The Big Picture: Springfield Region

  • Slow job growth and higher unemployment characterize the economy.

  • Region has traded higher paying manufacturing jobs for lower paying retail and service jobs.

  • Housing quality has suffered in wake of economic underperformance.

  • Although housing is less expensive, jobs also pay less and there are affordability issues for lower wage workers.

  • Housing production is less critical than housing rehabilitation.


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Job Growth Totals 9,300 a 15% Increase

Source: ES202 state data

Employment by lma aer data


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Job Growth Concentrated in Lebanon-Hartford LMA

Source: ES202 state data

Employment by lma aer data


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There Is No Unemployment Outside of Springfield


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Wages are Moderate, Outside of Lebanon Area


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Population Tops 150,000


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Population Growth Concentrates in Lebanon/Hartford LMA


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75,000 Housing Units in Region


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Units Are Dispersed


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Demand Has Outstripped Supply


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Vacancy Rates Plummet—(Effective Vacancy Even Lower)


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Very Low Rental Inventory Growth


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Acute Rental Shortage in Lebanon Area


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Non Traditional Households Dominate Emerging Market


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Median Home Price By Market Area


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Housing Demand Grows, Hanover-Lebanon


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Available Units Plummet


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Effective Inventory Plummets

MLS AREA RED IN 1996


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Prices Rise


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Affordability Suffers


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Housing Costs Outstrip Income Gains


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Rents Also Increase


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Imbalance: Ownership Costs and Wages/Income


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Imbalance: Rental Costs and Wages/Income


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Growth Factors

  • Excellent lifestyle

    • Internationally prominent health and education facilities

    • Safe, rural environment

  • Exceptionally skilled labor force

  • Relatively recession proof

  • Diverse economic base

    • College and hospitals are healthy

    • Large retail trade area

    • Expanding technology base

    • DHMC in expansion mode


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Growth Will Mirror Recent Pace

(BEA Definition)


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Young Households=Major Growth Shift


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Housing Needs

  • Enough units to accommodate growth

  • Enough units to provide adequate choice

  • Enough units to normalize unemployment rate

  • Enough units to replace units lost


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Production Requirements Double to Support Similar Job Growth


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Pressures Greatest in Lebanon/Hartford


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Rental Requirements Rise Sharply


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One Third of Need Is Not Because of Growth


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In The Alternative

  • If housing production remains at 1990-2000 rates:

    • 8,500 fewer jobs will be supported (50% less)

    • Slower growth in non residential tax base

    • Current housing choice and affordability pressures will remain

    • Tight labor market will pressure employers

    • Need is for BALANCE:

      • Job growth:housing production

      • Wage levels:housing costs


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Lower Income Renter Demand Will Be Strong


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Market Can Address Much, But Not All of Ownership Demand


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