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The Development of a Method to Estimate Changes in Freight Mode Share

The Development of a Method to Estimate Changes in Freight Mode Share. TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference . Marty Milkovits Dan Beagan Elaine McKenzie . May 9, 2013. Context.

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The Development of a Method to Estimate Changes in Freight Mode Share

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  1. The Development of a Method to Estimate Changes in Freight Mode Share TRB Transportation Planning Applications Conference Marty Milkovits Dan Beagan Elaine McKenzie May 9, 2013

  2. Context • Objective: Estimate impacts of changes in commodity volumes, shipment origins/destinations, modal shares, and modal energy use and emission rates on energy and GHG emissions • Data set: Freight Analysis Framework (FAF) 3.3 commodity flow database • Key question for mode share: How much freight could be shifted to use non-trucking modes?

  3. Data • FAF 3.3 Commodity db: 2007 & Forecasts through 2050 • 49 commodities • 15K+ FAF Region OD interchanges • 3 trade types (import/export/domestic) • ~1M records with non-zero commodity flow • Modes • Truck • Rail • Water • Mixed • Pipeline

  4. Modal Share Projection Options • Discrete Choice Model • Cannot identify decision maker from aggregate commodity flows • Modal Elasticity • No cost or pricing information available • Market Segmentation • Identify markets by commodity and distance • Average truck / non-truck shares for each market

  5. Market Segmentation • Assumption • Non-truck mode shares could improve to average for each distance bin / commodity market • Approach • Calculate average mode share for 100 mile bins by commodity • Proportionally increase “underperforming” non-truck flows up to average • Reduce above average truck flows

  6. Market Segmentation • Strengths • Able to develop and implement on a national scale • Commodity specific • Leverages all data available • Limitations • Accessibility assumptions may be unreasonable for some locations

  7. Results

  8. For more information... • Project Website nrel.gov/analysis/transportation_futures/

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