NextGen and Its Impact on Performance
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NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007. Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice President of Operations Planning.

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NextGen and Its Impact on Performance

Worldwide Symposium on Performance

of the Air Navigation System

ICAO

Montreal, Quebec, Canada

March 26-30, 2007

Victoria Cox

US Federal Aviation Administration

Air Traffic Operations,

Vice President of Operations Planning


It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods

  • Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. GDP

  • If expanded to include related industries,

  • it’s 9% of U.S. GDP

  • Contributes 10 million jobs to our economy


2025 NextGen Concept

For full version, see: www.jpdo.aero

Key Capabilities

  • Net-Enabled Information Access

  • Performance-Based Services

  • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making

  • Layered, Adaptive Security

  • Broad-Area Precision Navigation

  • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations

  • “Equivalent Visual” Operations

  • “Super Density” Operations


Cost of Not Moving to NextGen

Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth)

OEP H&S Capacity Estimate

No Change Capacity Demand

175,000

155,000

135,000

$100 Billion

Annual Economic Loss

Uncons

Comm

Flights Per Day

115,000

$40 Billion

Annual Economic Loss

95,000

OEP H&S

75,000

No Change

55,000

2004

2014

2024

2034

Demand by Year


Boeing Forecast

3X

2.4X

  • Significant Alternate Shift

    • Increase passengers per flight

    • A380, reverse RJ trend

  • Continue existing Biz shift

    • Smaller aircraft, more airports

  • Biz shift

    • 2% shift to micro jets

2014

2025

20??

Future Demand on the NAS

Flights

1.4-3X

~3X

Not to scale

TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate

TAF yields

passenger growth of

1.8-2.4X in 2025

~2X

Enplanement Demand

TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate

Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection

1X

2004


“Super Density” Airport Operations

2X – 4X Capacity Increase

Distributed Airport Operations*

Maximize use of Available Airspace

And more…

And more…

1.2X – 1.4X Capacity Increase

Nearly match Good Wx Capacity

“Equivalent Visual” Operations

Weather Information in Decision Loops

Performance-Based Services

Aircraft Trajectory-Based Ops

Broad Area Precision Navigation

Net-Enabled Information Access

2025 NextGen Capabilities:Capacity Impacts

Airport Capacity

Airspace Capacity

NextGen Capabilities

Current

Current

Current

Current

*For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports

Bad Wx

Good Wx

Good Wx

Bad Wx


NextGen Performance: Dual Focus

  • Air Traffic Management

    • Improved Performance-based services

      • Area Navigation (RNAV)

      • Required Navigation Performance (RNP)

      • Continuous Descent Approach (CDA)

      • Improved Information Availability (SWIM)

      • Improved weather prediction availability and coordinated weather picture


NextGen Performance: Dual Focus

  • Aircraft and Operator Performance

    • Improved aircraft performance

      • Navigation and aircraft flight performance

      • Improved noise and emissions performance

    • Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety


Agency

Develops Near-Term

Performance Goals

Agency

Executes Investments

Monitors Performance

JPDO Manages

Outcomes against Plan

National Plan

Sets NextGen Objectives

JPDO Develops NextGen

Performance Assessment

of Concepts – Sets Targets

Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets

Enterprise Architecture:

Performance Reference Model

Flight Plan

OEP

Enterprise Architecture

Adjust Plan

Portfolio Management


ATO Dashboard

Demonstrated Metrics Experience


Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics

Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow

NAS Today


Key Near-Term Investments

Current Programs

OEP Solution Sets

Initiate Trajectory Based Operations

Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports

Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment

Improve Collaborative ATM

Reduce Weather Impact

Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance

Transform Facilities

  • ERAM Enhancements

  • Automated Problem Resolution

  • Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory Based Ops/High Density

  • Infrastructure –Trajectory Based Ops

  • Time Based Metering

  • TFM-M Enhancements

    • Time-Based Metering

ERAM

STARS/CARTS

ADS-B

TMA

TFM-M

SWIM

DATA Comm

Precision Navigation

Network Enabled Weather

  • RNP/RNAV Expansion

  • Precise Navigation

  • Data Communications

  • Flight Intent Downlink

  • ADS-B

  • Aircraft Separation

  • SWIM/Net-Enabled Weather

  • Net-Centric Information Sharing

  • Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen Capabilities


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