NextGen and Its Impact on Performance
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NextGen and Its Impact on Performance Worldwide Symposium on Performance of the Air Navigation System ICAO Montreal, Quebec, Canada March 26-30, 2007. Victoria Cox US Federal Aviation Administration Air Traffic Operations, Vice President of Operations Planning.

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Nextgen and its impact on performance worldwide symposium on performance

NextGen and Its Impact on Performance

Worldwide Symposium on Performance

of the Air Navigation System

ICAO

Montreal, Quebec, Canada

March 26-30, 2007

Victoria Cox

US Federal Aviation Administration

Air Traffic Operations,

Vice President of Operations Planning


It s more than just the movement of people and goods

It’s More Than Just the Movement of People and Goods

  • Aviation and Aerospace represent 5.5% of U.S. GDP

  • If expanded to include related industries,

  • it’s 9% of U.S. GDP

  • Contributes 10 million jobs to our economy


2025 nextgen concept

2025 NextGen Concept

For full version, see: www.jpdo.aero

Key Capabilities

  • Net-Enabled Information Access

  • Performance-Based Services

  • Weather-Assimilated Decision Making

  • Layered, Adaptive Security

  • Broad-Area Precision Navigation

  • Trajectory-Based Aircraft Operations

  • “Equivalent Visual” Operations

  • “Super Density” Operations


Cost of not moving to nextgen

Cost of Not Moving to NextGen

Unconstrained Commercial Demand (TAF Growth)

OEP H&S Capacity Estimate

No Change Capacity Demand

175,000

155,000

135,000

$100 Billion

Annual Economic Loss

Uncons

Comm

Flights Per Day

115,000

$40 Billion

Annual Economic Loss

95,000

OEP H&S

75,000

No Change

55,000

2004

2014

2024

2034

Demand by Year


Future demand on the nas

Boeing Forecast

3X

2.4X

  • Significant Alternate Shift

    • Increase passengers per flight

    • A380, reverse RJ trend

  • Continue existing Biz shift

    • Smaller aircraft, more airports

  • Biz shift

    • 2% shift to micro jets

2014

2025

20??

Future Demand on the NAS

Flights

1.4-3X

~3X

Not to scale

TAF Growth Ratios, Higher Rate

TAF yields

passenger growth of

1.8-2.4X in 2025

~2X

Enplanement Demand

TAF Growth Ratios, Lower Rate

Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) Growth Projection

1X

2004


2025 nextgen capabilities capacity impacts

“Super Density” Airport Operations

2X – 4X Capacity Increase

Distributed Airport Operations*

Maximize use of Available Airspace

And more…

And more…

1.2X – 1.4X Capacity Increase

Nearly match Good Wx Capacity

“Equivalent Visual” Operations

Weather Information in Decision Loops

Performance-Based Services

Aircraft Trajectory-Based Ops

Broad Area Precision Navigation

Net-Enabled Information Access

2025 NextGen Capabilities:Capacity Impacts

Airport Capacity

Airspace Capacity

NextGen Capabilities

Current

Current

Current

Current

*For Distributed Airport Operations, benefits are modeled by shifting traffic (Bizshift) to selected regional airports surrounding the 35 OEP airports

Bad Wx

Good Wx

Good Wx

Bad Wx


Nextgen performance dual focus

NextGen Performance: Dual Focus

  • Air Traffic Management

    • Improved Performance-based services

      • Area Navigation (RNAV)

      • Required Navigation Performance (RNP)

      • Continuous Descent Approach (CDA)

      • Improved Information Availability (SWIM)

      • Improved weather prediction availability and coordinated weather picture


Nextgen performance dual focus1

NextGen Performance: Dual Focus

  • Aircraft and Operator Performance

    • Improved aircraft performance

      • Navigation and aircraft flight performance

      • Improved noise and emissions performance

    • Provide better decision quality data to pilots and air traffic controllers to enable higher-density operations with high level of safety


Monitoring performance against nextgen targets

Agency

Develops Near-Term

Performance Goals

Agency

Executes Investments

Monitors Performance

JPDO Manages

Outcomes against Plan

National Plan

Sets NextGen Objectives

JPDO Develops NextGen

Performance Assessment

of Concepts – Sets Targets

Monitoring Performance against NextGen Targets

Enterprise Architecture:

Performance Reference Model

Flight Plan

OEP

Enterprise Architecture

Adjust Plan

Portfolio Management


Demonstrated metrics experience

ATO Dashboard

Demonstrated Metrics Experience


Operational evolution partnership metrics

Operational Evolution Partnership Metrics

Measuring today ensures a successful tomorrow

NAS Today


Enabling infrastructure to support nextgen capabilities

Key Near-Term Investments

Current Programs

OEP Solution Sets

Initiate Trajectory Based Operations

Increase Arrivals/Departures at High Density Airports

Increase Flexibility in the Terminal Environment

Improve Collaborative ATM

Reduce Weather Impact

Increase Safety, Security, and Environmental Performance

Transform Facilities

  • ERAM Enhancements

  • Automated Problem Resolution

  • Concept DemonstrationsTrajectory Based Ops/High Density

  • Infrastructure –Trajectory Based Ops

  • Time Based Metering

  • TFM-M Enhancements

    • Time-Based Metering

ERAM

STARS/CARTS

ADS-B

TMA

TFM-M

SWIM

DATA Comm

Precision Navigation

Network Enabled Weather

  • RNP/RNAV Expansion

  • Precise Navigation

  • Data Communications

  • Flight Intent Downlink

  • ADS-B

  • Aircraft Separation

  • SWIM/Net-Enabled Weather

  • Net-Centric Information Sharing

  • Enabling Infrastructure to Support NextGen Capabilities


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