Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely
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Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely?. EARTH. System. ?!. Analysis. Why do we need Earth System Analysis ?!. […] there is no previous analogue for the current operation of the Earth System […]. Modus Operandi. atmosphere. terrestrial ecosystems. marine

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Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely?

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Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely?


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

EARTH

System

?!

Analysis


Why do we need earth system analysis

Why do we need Earth System Analysis ?!

[…] there is no previous analogue

for the current operation

of the Earth System […]


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

Modus Operandi


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

atmosphere

terrestrial

ecosystems

marine

ecosystems

human

dimensions


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

atmosphere

terrestrial

ecosystems

marine

ecosystems

human

dimensions


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

atmosphere

terrestrial

ecosystems

marine

ecosystems

human

dimensions


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

atmosphere

terrestrial

ecosystems

marine

ecosystems

human

dimensions

Do we know how

good old earth is

working now?


E s a

E S A

To complex for a single mind, a single discipline, a single nation, a single interest.

Thus…

…inter-disciplinary

…inter-nationational

…inter-objective (balance of interests)


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

ESA  ESM


Limits to growth world3

Limits to Growth – WORLD3

  • World3 – complex but basically simple

  • Causal relationships between the earth‘s biological systems and human (economic) development

  • It‘s all about the development of stocks, such as…

    …human population

    …industrial capital

    …environmental pollution

    …natural resources


World3 is not about absolute figures

WORLD3 is not about absolute figures…

…it‘s about trends, causal relationships, feedback loops


World3 assumes

World3 assumes…

…unlimitedGrowth

of…

…population

…capital

 until the physical limit is reached


World3

World3

Central question:

What happens now?!


Population growth 1

Population growth 1

Earth‘s ecological capacity

source: limits to growth – 30y update

world population

time


Population growth 2

Population growth 2

Earth‘s ecological capacity

source: limits to growth – 30y update

world population

time


Population growth 3

Population growth 3

Earth‘s ecological capacity

we are here

source: limits to growth – 30y update

world population

time


Population growth 4

Population growth 4

Earth‘s ecological capacity

we are here

source: limits to growth – 30y update

world population

time


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

source: limits to growth – 30y update


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

Safe

landing

?!

source: limits to growth – 30y update


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

Has anything changed (because of WORLD3) ?!


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

IGBP Objective

  • To describe and understand Earth System dynamics

  • focusing on the interactive biological, chemical and physical processes

  • the changes that are occurring in these dynamics

  • and the role of human activities in these changes


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

IGBP II Structure

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

Earth System Science Partnership

START

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184

Health


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

Integrated Regional Studies

  • assess the influence of regional processes on Earth System functioning (and vice-versa)

  • be integrative (natural and social sciences, all components of the Earth System, planning to synthesis)

  • contribute sound scientific understanding in support of sustainable development in the region

  • be scientifically-driven by scientists in the region, with global collaboration


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

Large Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA)

  • 80 research groups - 600 scientists

  • How does Amazonia function as a regional entity (e.g., natural cycles of water, energy, aerosols, carbon, nutrient and trace-gases)?

  • How will changes in land use and climate affect the biological, chemical and physical functioning of Amazonia, including its sustainability and influence on global climate?

source: http://www.igbp.net/page.php?pid=184


Take home message

Take home message

Earth system analyses/models show trends, not figures.

ESA can be used as an early warning system

ESM should be used as a political tool to design rough national and international strategies for decades to come

IRS should be used a regional planning tool for sustainable development wherever available


Do you know what it takes to manage global change wisely

For more information on ESA, ESM and global change research, visit:

http://www.igbp.net


Comments for lars schmidt from manfred stock

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