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Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008. Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre. Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming. 6.0. 5.0. 4.0.

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Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008

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Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Climate Governance and Development,

Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008

Lose-Lose Risks and

Win-Win Options

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE

Potsdam Institute,

Oxford University,

Tyndall Centre


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for

Surface Warming

6.0

5.0

4.0

Globally averaged warming (ºC)

3.0

2.0

1.0

A1FI

A1B

A1T

A2

B2

B1

0.0

-1.0

1900

2000

2100


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Cooling Effect of Aerosols

(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Dangerous Warming Commitment

(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

G8-Scenario and R&F‘s Invisible Hand

(Schellnhuber 2008 PNAS)


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Integrated Assessment

Consider 3 crucial aspects of

sustainable climate protection measures:

  • Mitigation

  • Adaptation

  • Development


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Action Field Check

Identify

  • Ecological Assets

  • Economic Sectors

  • Social Systems

highly sensitive to subset / totality of aspects

Prioritize accordingly!


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Lose

Development

Lose

Stagnate

Stagnate

Adaptation

Win

Win

Win

Stagnate

Lose

Mitigation

Invest in Win-Win-Win Options

Disencourage Lose-Lose-Lose Risks


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

LLL Examples

  • Urbanization of coastal zones, mountain ranges, arid regions

  • „Stradification“ of natural habitats

  • Expansion of single-purpose fossil-fuel-based power stations

WWW Examples

  • Reduction of black carbon emissions through biomethane generated from degraded-land afforestation

  • Solarthermal power generation + desalinization by energy towers

  • Sustainable architecture


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Vulnerable Coastal Megacity: Mumbai


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

The Phoenix Metropolitan Area


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Nouakchott, Mauritania


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

www.faszination-regenwald.de u. a.


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

17 %

of current

global

primary

energy

demand

81 EJ/yr

557 Mha

(not irrigated)

Fractional

Plantation Area

(2nd Generation Bioenergy)

Bioenergy

Potential (no irrigation)

  • Biodiv/Wilderness moderatelyprotected

  • Cropland not expanded

Erbrecht and Lucht, unpub.


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Energy Tower Principle


Climate governance and development berlin 28 30 sep 2008

Climate-fit urban design invented 2000 years ago


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