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Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008. Lose-Lose Risks and Win-Win Options. Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE Potsdam Institute, Oxford University, Tyndall Centre. Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for Surface Warming. 6.0. 5.0. 4.0.

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Climate Governance and Development, Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008

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Climate Governance and Development,

Berlin, 28-30 Sep 2008

Lose-Lose Risks and

Win-Win Options

Professor Hans Joachim Schellnhuber CBE

Potsdam Institute,

Oxford University,

Tyndall Centre


Multi-model Averages and Assessed Ranges for

Surface Warming

6.0

5.0

4.0

Globally averaged warming (ºC)

3.0

2.0

1.0

A1FI

A1B

A1T

A2

B2

B1

0.0

-1.0

1900

2000

2100


Cooling Effect of Aerosols

(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)


Dangerous Warming Commitment

(Ramanathan & Feng 2008 PNAS)


G8-Scenario and R&F‘s Invisible Hand

(Schellnhuber 2008 PNAS)


Integrated Assessment

Consider 3 crucial aspects of

sustainable climate protection measures:

  • Mitigation

  • Adaptation

  • Development


Action Field Check

Identify

  • Ecological Assets

  • Economic Sectors

  • Social Systems

highly sensitive to subset / totality of aspects

Prioritize accordingly!


Lose

Development

Lose

Stagnate

Stagnate

Adaptation

Win

Win

Win

Stagnate

Lose

Mitigation

Invest in Win-Win-Win Options

Disencourage Lose-Lose-Lose Risks


LLL Examples

  • Urbanization of coastal zones, mountain ranges, arid regions

  • „Stradification“ of natural habitats

  • Expansion of single-purpose fossil-fuel-based power stations

WWW Examples

  • Reduction of black carbon emissions through biomethane generated from degraded-land afforestation

  • Solarthermal power generation + desalinization by energy towers

  • Sustainable architecture


Vulnerable Coastal Megacity: Mumbai


The Phoenix Metropolitan Area


Nouakchott, Mauritania


www.faszination-regenwald.de u. a.


17 %

of current

global

primary

energy

demand

81 EJ/yr

557 Mha

(not irrigated)

Fractional

Plantation Area

(2nd Generation Bioenergy)

Bioenergy

Potential (no irrigation)

  • Biodiv/Wilderness moderatelyprotected

  • Cropland not expanded

Erbrecht and Lucht, unpub.


Energy Tower Principle


Climate-fit urban design invented 2000 years ago


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