Jeffrey J. Brown & Samuel Foucher, Ph.D.

1. A Peak Oil Update and a Quantitative Assessment of Future Net Oil Exports by the Top Five Net Oil Exporters Jeffrey J. Brown & Samuel Foucher, Ph.D.

2. Capital & Energy Required to Produce Liquid Transportation Fuels from Fossil Fuels • Capital & Energy Requirements Increase Liquid Gas Solid • Carbon Content & Contaminants Increasing Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist email: westexas@aol.com Natural Gas Natural Gas Liquids Condensate Light Sweet Crude Heavy Sour Crude Bitumen Coal

3. Lower 48 Production 1960-1980 Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only

4. Lower 48 HL Plot Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only

5. Total Lower 48 Production (1990 to current)

6. Lower 48 and World Production Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only

7. Source Material: GRAPHOILOGY by KHEBAB Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist email: westexas@aol.com

8. Source Material: GRAPHOILOGY by KHEBAB Jeffrey J. Brown, Geologist email: westexas@aol.com

9. Texas and Saudi Production Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only, Railroad Commission of Texas

10. Texas and Saudi Production

11. Texas and North Sea Production Source: EIA, crude oil + condensate only

12. Export Land Model

13. ELM, UK and Indonesia, Year over Year Changes in Net Exports

14. Conventional Wisdom - the Economist Quote About Saudi Arabia « Saudi Aramco's proved reserves alone could keep the world supplied for several decades. But it is only exploiting ten of its 80 or so fields, so will be able to pump at the present rate for about 70 years even if it never discovers another drop of oil ».  Economist Magazine, August 10, 2006

15. Saudi Arabia: Constant Production at 11  mbpd, Versus Consumption Increasing at +5.7%/year

16. Saudi Arabia, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval 2015 URR=224± 24 Gb -2.7 ± 2%/year 4.4% ± 2%/year

17. Saudi Arabia, Net Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -4.73 ± 4%/year 2015

18. Russia, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval URR=204± 7 Gb -5.1 ± 2%/year 0.3% ± 0.8%/year 2015

19. Russia, Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -8.2 ± 4%/year 2015

20. Norway, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval URR=29± 1 Gb -11.0 ± 2%/year 0.7% ± 2.7%/year 2015

21. Norway, Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -12.1 ± 2.5%/year 2015

22. Iran, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval URR=124± 12 Gb -1.5 ± 2%/year 2.9% ± 1.8%/year 2015

23. Iran, Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -4.9 ± 7%/year 2015

24. UAE, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval URR=49± 9 Gb -2.9 ± 4%/year 5.0% ± 5.0%/year 2015

25. UAE, Exports Actual Forecast Exports Forecast Confidence Interval -4.0 ± 7%/year 2015

26. Top Five, Production, Consumption Actual Forecast Supply Forecast Confidence Interval Consumption Confidence Interval URR=680± 55 Gb -3.8 ± 2%/year 1.8% ± 0.9%/year 2015

27. Top Five, Exports Actual Forecast -6.2 ± 4%/year 2015

28. Top Five Net Exports, With US  Total Imports

29. Electrified Transportation in San Angelo, Texas, Circa 1908