Towards a climate impact monitoring indicators archetypes and success factors for action
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Towards a Climate Impact Monitoring Indicators, archetypes and success factors for action . Jürgen P. Kropp Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach. Budapest, Sept. 4-5 th 2008. COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES Brussels, 29.6.2007 COM(2007) 354 final

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Towards a climate impact monitoring indicators archetypes and success factors for action

Towards a Climate Impact MonitoringIndicators, archetypes and success factors for action

Jürgen P. KroppPotsdam Institute for Climate Impact Reserach

Budapest, Sept. 4-5th2008


Hierarchy of adaptation strategies concepts

COMMISSION OF THE EUROPEAN COMMUNITIES

Brussels, 29.6.2007

COM(2007) 354 final

GREEN PAPERFROM THE COMMISSION TO THE COUNCIL, THE EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT, THE EUROPEAN ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COMMITTEE AND THE COMMITTEE OF THE REGIONS

Climate change: building

adaptive capacity of local

and regional authorities

2. National

KomPass

Kompetenzzentrum Klimafolgen und Anpassung

Chamber of

the Regions

3. Regional/Local:? – issue of ongoing research

Hierarchy of Adaptation „Strategies & Concepts“

1. Global/Supranational

Challenge: Strengthening efficiency of institutions,

e.g. by adequate facilitation/capacities, but how....


Towards a climate impact monitoring indicators archetypes and success factors for action

Randa/Switzerland 1991

> 8 Mio. to.

induced,

intensified

UK/Norfolk 2007

?

- safe environments -

Question: fight against

or living with CC?

Understanding:

Information, Awareness,

Communication,Vulnerability,

Risk,Preparedness

  • Difficulties:

  • Insufficient knowledge

  • Organisational problems

  • Capacity problems

  • Problem of scales

Portugal 2003

Tuvalu 2005

No action?


Necessary preconditions for successful adaptation

Necessary Preconditions for “successful” Adaptation

Distinguish between adaptation and adaptive capacity!

1. Systems knowledge

2. Problem awareness

3. Adequate instruments

4. Success measures (time?, which metric)

Indicators measuring only a state are not sufficient!


Sectoral vulnerability north rhine westphalia germany 199 9

Stimulus: Storm

Exposed unit:

Forest sectors

Indicators:

Tree types, slope, rel. storm

intensity/frequency

Actual Damage

2007 after

Cyclone Kyrill

Sectoral Vulnerability North-Rhine Westphalia/Germany (1999)

Nothing happens

Source: Kropp et al. 2006, Climatic Change


Awareness knowledge is a necessary but not sufficient precondition for adequate action

Awareness/knowledge is a necessary, but not sufficient precondition for adequate action!

Drowning New Orleans

by Mark Fischetti

Scientific American (October 1, 2001)

The boxes are stacked eight feet high and line the walls of the large, windowless room. Inside them are new body bags, 10,000 in all. If a big, slow-moving hurricane crossed the Gulf of Mexico on the right track, it would drive a sea surge that would drown New Orleans under twenty feet of water. "As the water recedes", says Walter Maestri, a local emergency management director, "we expect to find a lot of dead bodies".

New Orleans is a disaster waiting to happen. The city lies below sea level, in a bowl bordered by levees that fend off Lake Pontchartrain to the north and the Mississippi River to the south and west. And because of a damning confluence of factors, the city is sinking further, putting it at increasing flood risk after even minor storms. The low-lying Mississippi Delta, which buffers the city from the gulf, is also rapidly disappearing. A year from now another 25 to 30 square miles of delta marsh - an area the size of Manhattan - will have vanished. An acre disappears every 24 minutes. Each loss gives a storm surge a clearer path to wash over the delta and pour into the bowl, trapping one million people inside and another million in surrounding communities. Extensive evacuation would be impossible because the surging water would cut off the few escape routes. Scientists at Louisiana State University (LSU), who have modeled hundreds of possible storm tracks on advanced computers...................


Tourism water sea level rise saidia

Risk prone area below 1m

Large scale tourism

Tourism, Water & Sea-level rise: Saidia

  • bad practice: Why developing countries often follow the same pattern:

  • Economy firstvs. Sustainability first

Quelle: Tekken & Kropp 2008


Umweltlimits f r saidia moulouya

„Umweltlimits“ für Saidia/Moulouya

1961-19901976-200520052050ff 383mm350mm245mm-100mm

2005 available:

Fresh water (~16 mm = 7%of prec.) 880 * 106 m3/J

groundwater (partly salinised)450 * 106 m3/J

actual:1330 * 106 m3/J

Demand (* 106 m3)20052015

Population (potable water) ~2.4. Mio~2.5 Mio.

96100 (+3.8%)

“economy first”

golf courses: 1.9ha/hole; 9,000 m3/yr/ha210ha: 1.9400ha: 3.6 (+88%)

1 tourist ~ 6-800 l/d0.5 (?)2.6 (+420%)

irrigated land 6,500m3/ha/J150 103: 975180 103: 1170 (+20%)

Industry80117 (+46%)

in 2015 163bnl/yr below sust. level

Source: Tekken & Kropp 2008


Towards a climate impact monitoring indicators archetypes and success factors for action

EU Development ProgrammeDeveloping Policies and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change for the Baltic Sea Region (ASTRA, finished 2007)

Are we ready for adaptation?

  • 38 Partners from 7 European countries

  • Most of them administrative bodies, management authorities, etc.

  • 15 case study areas were situated in Estonia, Finland, Germany, Lithuania, Lativa and Poland


Some results from systematic examinations

Some results from systematic examinations

  • Problem awareness is primarily framed by potential impacts in the case study regions, little explicit knowledge on policy responses, exposure units are only described in a very vague or general way.

  • Climate change is still not a priority on the local or regional level, and lack of financial resources hinders adaptation.

  • Many constraining institutional arrangements are seen as informal. They have the form of complaints about “soft factors” as missing knowledge and citizens’ awareness, inadequate education, political inaction and bad coordination of diverse institutions.

  • Problems are more found on the local scale, while enabling institutions and actors are seen on higher levels. It is likely that there is a shift of responsibilities to higher institutional scales (mitigation?).

  • Most existing climate change policies are related to

    • Natural hazards (event related)

    • National greenhouse gas mitigation strategies

  • Although some responses advert at local interactions between actors influencing implementation of adaptation policies, there is little strategic knowledge on who supports or constrains adaptation to climate change.

Eisenack/Tekken/Kropp (2007): Coastline Report


Towards a climate impact monitoring indicators archetypes and success factors for action

Management of or Adaptation to risks need knowledge about mechanisms!….but how to analyse entangled dynamics of socio-ecological systems?….how to integrate policy on an acceptable level of abstraction?…how to assess efficiency of management options?


Adaptation functionals and archetypes

Adaptation Functionalsand Archetypes

  • Challenges

    • modelling adaptation

    • entangeled impacts, exposure units and responses – but need for transfer of adaptation strategies

    • aggregation of damages and adaptations on spatial and institutional scales

  • Approaches on an intermediate level of abstraction

    • archetypes of adaptation (including action dimension)

    • adaptation functionals („classes“)


Astra preliminary archetypes

ASTRA: Preliminary Archetypes


Qualitative and quantitative methods

games

causal loopdiagrams

Data driven models

theories

boolean analysis

participatory

Case A

0

0

0

1

Case B

1

0

0

1

1

1

1

0

mathematical

models

Archetype XYZ

scenarios

Case A

Case B

Case C

Case …

idiographic

qualitative models

local maps

((M+ x y))

((U- y z) (0 max))

((MULT x y z))

global maps

Qualitative and Quantitative Methods

cf. Kropp & Scheffran 2007


Research themes

Research Themes

  • Theoretical development

    • Aggregation and scale issues (adaptation functionals, archetypes of adaptation)

    • Measuring adaptation and adaptedness

    • Assessment and use of transparent, science-based vulnerability indicators

    • Basic questions (e.g. terminology, necessity of policy action and anticipation)


Faces of vulnerability useful for comparison

Faces of Vulnerability: Useful for comparison

Climate Change

Climate Change

Community

Disaster Management

Community

Development

Community

Spatial scale

Global/regional

local

individual

Socio-economic constraints

Millenium Development Goals

Current Livelihood

conditions

Long-term climate development & protection

Exposed units and their capacities

Disaster „mitigation“

Robust Infrastructure

Event oriented view

Challenges & Views


Vulnerability subjective but good for comparison

Vulnerability, subjective but good for comparison

Prepared for UN Sigma Xi 2006


Towards a climate impact monitoring indicators archetypes and success factors for action

Top Down: National Policy

Science & Stakeholder

interaction

„Institutional efficiency!“

Bottom up: Local Experience


Construction of archetypes

Construction of Archetypes

  • Is a social process

  • Style of description based on common methodological ground

  • Discourse on shape and priority of patterns

  • Quality control by process documentation, achivement of (external) objectives, case studies, available theories, validation of archetypes

  • Needs refinement and operationalization

  • Possible with different methods


Semi formalised elements of adaptation measures constructing archetypes

BaWü

NRW-I/II

Experiences

„Semi-formalised elements“ of Adaptation Measures constructing archetypes

Actors & Type

Normative orientation

Institutional level

Individual

NGO

Time scale

Duration (fixed/open)

Temporal scope

Stream of costs & benefits

How adaptation occurs

Effect on policy

Involved goods/properties

Adaptive control

Area of intervention

Regulatory instrument

Society

Vulnerability

Target impacts

Changes of socio-economics

Mid-term goal: shared problem solving competence (adaptation wizard)

Purpose & Form

Spatial scale

Structural, legal, financial,...

Retreat, prevent, restore

Performance

Costs

Efficiency

Implementability


Hypothesis to similar problems can be responded by similar solutions

Hypothesis: To similar problems can be responded by similar solutions!

  • Questions:

  • How vague or concrete are existing measures defined?

  • Are typical adaptations composed of different measures, or are they simple building blocks?

  • Are there established classifications that help to distinguish or to generate measures?

  • What kind of activities are considered to be an adaptation?

  • .....let us start with the discussions


Towards a climate impact monitoring indicators archetypes and success factors for action

Towards a Global Climate Impact & Adaptation Information System

Combining:

Scenarios, Impacts

Infrastructure, Solutions

Information about

adaptation experiences,

costs (via Geo-Tags),

etc.

Source: PIK/Kropp & Costa (2008) Kropp & Daschkeit (2008)‏


Towards a climate impact monitoring indicators archetypes and success factors for action

PIK’s Virtual Vegetation Visualiser


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