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Brant Liebmann - CIRES Jose A. Marengo CPTEC Brazil Dave Allured - CIRES Leila Carvalho - University of Sao Paulo Gary Bates - CIRES Carolina S. Vera - University of Buenos Aires Nick Bond - JISAO, Seattle, Washington David Gochis - NCAR Ileana Blade - University of Barcelona

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North America - Better understand variations of wet season (1966 - 2001)

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North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Brant Liebmann - CIRES

Jose A. Marengo CPTEC Brazil

Dave Allured - CIRES

Leila Carvalho - University of Sao Paulo

Gary Bates - CIRES

Carolina S. Vera - University of Buenos Aires

Nick Bond - JISAO, Seattle, Washington

David Gochis - NCAR

Ileana Blade - University of Barcelona

Suzana Camargo - IRI, Palisades, New York

Rong Fu - Georgia Tech

Anji Seth - University of Connecticut

North America - Better understand

variations of wet season

(1966 - 2001)

South America - Compare observed precipitation with

that from 24 member average of

ECHAM 4.5 Atmospheric Model

(1976-2001)

Onset and End of the Wet Season

in the Americas

and comparisons with the

ECHAM 4.5

Atmospheric General Circulation Model


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

We wish to thank the following agencies for providing the data used in this study:

Agência Nacional de Águas (Brasil)

Agência Nacional Energia Elétrica (Brasil)

U.T.E. Uruguay

C.T.M. Salto Grande

Servicio Meteorologico Nacional (Argentina, Mexico, Paraguay, Uruguay)

FUNCEME (Ceará, Brasil)

U.S. National Climatic Data Center

IAPAR - SIMEPAR (Paraná, Brasil)

DAEE (São Paulo, Brasil)

Minesterio del Ambiente y los Recursos Naturales (Venezuela)

Meteorogische Dienst Suriname

METEO-France

ASANA (Bolivia)


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Annual Total Precipitation


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

A = ‘Anomalous Accumulation’

R = daily rainfall

= Annual daily average


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

length

start

end


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

May - September Total Precipitation

correlation


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Compare Observed South American Precipitation with

that from 24 member average of

ECHAM 4.5 Atmospheric Model

1976-2001

Observations and model at same resolution

~ 2.8° x 2.8°

Model: T42 horizontal; 19 vertical


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Annual Total Precipitation


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Difference in Annual Total

(model minus observations)

What is the cause of the bias in annual totals?


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Average Onset Date

Jul

Oct

Apr

Jan

Jun

Dec

Feb

Mar

Nov

Aug

Sep

May


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Length of Rainy Season


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Model Length Minus Observed Length


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Improvement or Worsening by Substitution


North america better understand variations of wet season 1966 2001

Variance of Annual Total Explained:

by Wet Season Length

by Wet Season Rate

OBSERVATIONS


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