Panel discussion on corporate volunteerism closing plenary june 25 2003
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Panel Discussion on Corporate Volunteerism Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003. 2009 Summer AMS Community Meeting Aug 10-13 th , 2009. Picture. Nick Keener, CCM Director, Meteorology. Picture. DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest electric power companies in the US.

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Panel discussion on corporate volunteerism closing plenary june 25 2003

Panel Discussion on Corporate

Volunteerism

Closing Plenary, June 25, 2003

2009 Summer AMS Community Meeting

Aug 10-13th, 2009

Picture

Nick Keener, CCM

Director, Meteorology

Picture


Duke energy is one of the largest electric power companies in the us
DUKE ENERGY is one of the largest electric power companies in the US.

  • Serves customers in 5 states: North and South Carolina, Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky.

  • 3.9 million retail electric customers

  • 500,000 retail gas customers

  • 47,000 square miles of Service Area

  • ~ 37,000 MW Generation in the US and 4,000 MW of Generation in Latin America


Duke energy north america power generation facilities
Duke Energy North America in the US.Power Generation Facilities


Weather Forecasts, in the US.Mesoscale Observations and Climate information are used to make daily operational decisions in the following areas:

  • Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization

  • Optimization of Hydro Electric Resources

  • Hourly pricing

  • Weather Risk Analysis for load obligation

  • Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories

  • Seasonal Forecasts for revenue projections

  • Support energy trading and marketing activities in both the regulated and non-regulated generation

  • Support Emergency Management for Storm Response


Load forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization
Load Forecasting that supports daily generation portfolio optimization

  • Hourly forecasts of temperatures, dew points, wind speed and cloud cover for input into load forecast models

  • Real-time surface observations

  • Precipitation projections

  • Forecasts developed from NCEP models, MOS, and local forecast methods developed internally


Optimization of hydro electric resources
Optimization of Hydro Electric Resources optimization

  • Twice daily QPF forecasts that are input into our Hydro Management System (1-3 days)

  • Medium range QPF projections for lake/river management (4 to 7 days)

  • Real-time QPE for inflow estimates

  • Seasonal forecasts for longer range planning and resource availability


Weather risk analysis for load obligation
Weather Risk Analysis for load obligation optimization

  • Daily Weather forecast Scenario development to capture uncertainty and project a range of possible loads out to 3 days

  • Forecasts of convection, timing and coverage for possible load shedding

  • Temperature/wind forecasts for transmission line ratings and lake/river temperature thermal restrictions


Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories
Monthly and seasonal forecasts for fuel inventories optimization

  • Monthly/seasonal outlooks for temperature and precipitation are used for predicting coal inventories, gas storage numbers, and hydro availability

  • Seasonal forecasts of HDD and CDD are used to estimate revenue projections


Support trading and marketing of energy
Support trading and marketing of energy optimization

  • Short and medium range forecasts are used for asset management (Day 1 through 5)

  • Daily market analysis based on region and national weather forecast.

  • Full suite of forecast projections for 35 cites in the 1 – 15 day range



Weather forecasts are utilized for resource scheduling in pre storm planning for utility operations
Weather Forecasts are utilized for resource scheduling in pre-storm planning for utility operations


Future weather forecast needs
Future weather forecast needs? pre-storm planning for utility operations

  • Implementation of a proposed National Digital Guidance Database (NDGD) which would provide probabilistic forecast information.

  • Improving Ensemble forecasts for both short and long range models and make them available through NOAA Port.

  • Improve the Ensemble MOS product past day 3 by removing climatology as a predictor.

  • Implement an Ensemble QPF forecast


Real time surface observations are used for the following operational decisions
Real-time surface observations are used for the following operational decisions:

  • System load management

  • System load modeling

  • Resource decisions related to on-going severe weather events

  • Inflow calculations for hydroelectric operations

  • Emergency response decisions related to non-routine releases


Future mesonet needs
Future Mesonet Needs? operational decisions:

  • Increased spatial resolution of surface observations

  • Real-time SFC data available from a national network via NOAA Port every 15 minutes

  • Atmospheric boundary layer measurements using remote sensing systems for characterizing the PBL in real-time.


Recommendations under the human dimension basc report
Recommendations under the Human Dimension – BASC Report operational decisions:

  • The stakeholders should commission an independent team of social and physical scientists to conduct end-user assessment for selected sectors. The assessment…………………added societal impact and value.

  • Themes –

  • Weather prediction and climate modeling

  • Support new applications in physical, dynamical, and chemical processes in expanding the user base

  • Integrated feedback mechanisms


Main driver in the energy sector
Main driver in the energy sector operational decisions:

  • Technology?


Q&A operational decisions:


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