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A Snapshot of the Alaska Economy. AFN Leadership Forum Steve Colt UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research 6 July 2006. Acknowledgments. Funding: Alaska Council on Economic Education University of Alaska Foundation Previous work: Scott Goldsmith, ISER Helpful comments:

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A snapshot of the alaska economy

A Snapshot of the Alaska Economy

AFN Leadership Forum

Steve Colt

UAA Institute of Social and Economic Research

6 July 2006


Acknowledgments
Acknowledgments

Funding:

Alaska Council on Economic Education

University of Alaska Foundation

Previous work:

Scott Goldsmith, ISER

Helpful comments:

Cynthia Casas, Steve Jackstadt


These slides available at
These slides available at:

www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu


Overview
Overview

  • Size:

    • How big is the Alaska economy?

  • Structure:

    • What drives the Alaska economy?

    • How is that changing?

  • Regional variation:

    • How is remote Alaska different?

  • Looking ahead:

    • Strengths and areas of concern


How big is the alaska economy year 2004
How big is the Alaska economy?(year 2004)

  • population: 658,000

  • total employment: 400,000

    • includes military, proprietors

  • personal income: $22 billion

  • gross state product: $36 billion

    • value of production occurring within the state

    • includes wages and profits going to nonresidents

ISER, AK DOLWD, U.S. BEA


Alaska gross state product 36 billion in 2004
Alaska gross state product:$36 billion in 2004

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis


Alaska gross state product compared to other states
Alaska gross state product compared to other states

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis


Alaska gross state product a closer look
Alaska gross state product: a closer look

U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis


Alaska gross state product compared to other countries
Alaska gross state product compared to other countries

U.N. Human Development Report 2005


Structure of the alaska economy
Structure of the Alaska economy

  • subsistence

  • the five driving sectors

  • how we got here

  • looking ahead


Subsistence is a vital part of the alaska economy
Subsistenceis a vital part of the Alaska economy

Total subsistence harvests exceed 53 million pounds

ISER, ADF&G


Sources of jobs in the cash economy
Sources of jobs in the cash economy:

personal assets 10%

oil and gas 32%

tourism, cargo 10%

fishing, mining, timber 10%

federal govt 35%

about 400,000 total jobs in 2004


Oil and gas 126 800 jobs 32
Oil and gas:126,800 jobs (32%)

ISER


Federal spending 141 600 jobs 35
Federal spending:141,600 jobs (35%)

ISER


Seafood mining and timber 50 400 jobs 13
Seafood, mining, and timber: 50,400 jobs (13%)

ISER


Tourism and air cargo 39 800 jobs 10
Tourism and air cargo: 39,800 jobs (10%)

ISER


Personal assets mailbox economy 41 400 jobs 10
Personal assets (mailbox economy) 41,400 jobs (10%)

ISER


Growth of alaska employment 1965 2000
Growth of Alaska employment1965-2000

[photos]

ISER



Regional variation how is remote alaska different
Regional variation:how is remote Alaska different?

  • jobs

  • income

  • demographics

  • infrastructure


Unemployment
Unemployment

Alaska DOLWD



Rural Alaska runs on expensive diesel (2000)barrels oil per person per year


Who will need jobs age distributions year 2000
Who will need jobs? (2000)Age distributions, year 2000

Anchorage

remote rural AK

U.S. census


Internet availability to communities not the same as actual connections
Internet availability to communities (2000)(not the same as actual connections)

Regulatory Commission of AK 2005


Looking ahead

Looking ahead: (2000)

strengths and areas of concern


Concern oil production is declining

2,500,000 (2000)

NPRA

2,000,000

Other NS

Northstar

Colville R

Badami

1,500,000

Duck Island

GPMcIntyre

Barrels per Day

Milne Pt

KRU.IPA+Sat

PBU.IPA+Sat

1,000,000

Cook Inlet

500,000

0

1969

1974

1979

1984

1989

1994

1999

2004

2009

2014

2019

Year

Concern: Oil production is declining…

Oil Production 1969 - 2022

Prudhoe Bay

Kuparuk

Alaska Department of Natural Resources


We have been rescued for now by high oil prices
We have been rescued – for now - by high oil prices (2000)

State Oil Revenues

Alaska Department of Revenue, author calculation


Strength permanent fund earnings roughly equal oil revenues
Strength (2000): Permanent fund earnings roughly equal oil revenues


Strength: (2000)Small firms are a vital part of today’s economy….

  • More than 40% of private sector jobs are with firms of less than 50 people

    • average size = 6 people

  • More than 50% of private sector jobs are with firms of less than 100 people

  • These data do not include proprietors:

    • most fishers, many professionals

    • Therefore, true size of the small-business sector is significantly larger

Alaska DOLWD, author calculation


Private sector employment (2000) by size of firm (year 2005)

more than 500

Less than 50 employees

100-500

50-100

Alaska DOLWD


Strength alaska leads the nation in household internet usage
Strength: (2000) Alaska leads the nation in household internet usage

% of households with internet access (2003)

  • Alaska 68.5

  • New Hampshire 65.5

  • Colorado 63.4

  • Connecticut 62.9

  • Utah 62.6

U.S. Census


Strength: (2000) Alaska has low inequalityGini coefficients for countries and regions(0 = complete equality100 = complete inequality)

Alaska 38.0(based on household income)

Alaska estimated by author from US Census American Community Survey 2004 – household income

UN Human Development Report 2005 Chap 2 – per capita income


Concern formal ownership of alaska lands
concern: (2000)formal ownership of Alaska lands

Total 375 million acres


Strength and concern alaska age distribution includes many young people entering labor force
Strength and concern: (2000)Alaska age distribution includes many young people entering labor force

U.S. (year 2000)

Alaska (year 2000)

U.S. Census


We re all in this together

We’re all in this together. (2000)

www.iser.uaa.alaska.edu


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