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The Evolution of SIP Modeling from 1970 to Present. 2012 Region 4 Modelers Workshop Atlanta GA John Calcagni. 1970-1977 SIP Efforts. Initial SIPs due in 1971 SO 2 and TSP were primary pollutants addressed Focus on Big Dirties

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the evolution of sip modeling from 1970 to present

The Evolution of SIP Modeling from 1970 to Present

2012 Region 4 Modelers Workshop

Atlanta GA

John Calcagni

1970 1977 sip efforts
1970-1977 SIP Efforts
  • Initial SIPs due in 1971
  • SO2 and TSP were primary pollutants addressed
    • Focus on Big Dirties
    • Basically used computerized version of Turner workbook (Gifford-Hanna equations).
  • Ozone and CO SIPs deferred until 1973
    • Rollback for Ozone
    • APRAC 1A for CO
      • Turner Workbook with Line Source equation for roads
1970 1977 big issues
1970-1977 Big Issues
  • Region V SO2 FIPs
    • Sulfur Variability
    • Ex-Ex Model
  • Tall Stacks and Supplemental Control Systems
    • Power Plants
    • Smelters
    • Section 123 Stack Heights 1977 CAA
1970 1977 big issues cont
1970-1977 Big Issues (Cont.)
  • Ozone
    • Size of Domain
      • “Inter-Urban Transport Implausible”
    • No VOC Inventories
  • ORD First Efforts
    • St Louis RAPS Study
    • Massive Field Effort but no Emission Inventory
1978 psd modeling begins
1978 PSD Modeling Begins
  • EPA models not designed for increments
    • SIP modeling was case by case
  • Every vendor developed a proprietary model that met client needs
  • Consistent tracking of increments not possible
  • EPA standardized the models in early 1980’s
    • SCRAM Bulletin Board
1978 1982 ozone modeling
1978-1982 Ozone Modeling
  • SIP Guidance – Appendix J
    • Hockey stick graph
    • Based on Smog Chamber Studies from LA
  • EKMA
    • Combined smog chamber data and rollback
    • Still based on Urban Area
  • ORD Commits to Develop Ozone Model
  • SAI Urban Air Shed Model debuts (UAM)
1983 1990 ozone modeling
1983-1990 Ozone Modeling
  • UAM only Regional Model
    • Proprietary and Expensive
    • Used by California and Texas Industries
    • EKMA remained approved model
  • 1985-ORD almost cancels model development
    • States would attain by 1987 and model not needed
  • 1988 SAI almost shelves UAM
  • 1988 Five Cities Study
    • Atlanta, Dallas, St. Louis, Philadelphia, New York
    • Develop lower cost application
    • Develop State Capacity
ozone modeling in 1990 s
Ozone Modeling in 1990’s
  • 1991 EPA ORD acknowledges role of NOx
  • 1993 OAQPS develops Relative Response methodology for models
  • 1995 Ozone Transport Assessment Group
    • Used UAM under license
    • CMAQ still not available
    • First Credible Regional Ozone Model Application
  • 1998 ORD release Models 3 and CMAQ
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