The evolution of sip modeling from 1970 to present
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The Evolution of SIP Modeling from 1970 to Present. 2012 Region 4 Modelers Workshop Atlanta GA John Calcagni. 1970-1977 SIP Efforts. Initial SIPs due in 1971 SO 2 and TSP were primary pollutants addressed Focus on Big Dirties

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The evolution of sip modeling from 1970 to present

The Evolution of SIP Modeling from 1970 to Present

2012 Region 4 Modelers Workshop

Atlanta GA

John Calcagni


1970 1977 sip efforts
1970-1977 SIP Efforts

  • Initial SIPs due in 1971

  • SO2 and TSP were primary pollutants addressed

    • Focus on Big Dirties

    • Basically used computerized version of Turner workbook (Gifford-Hanna equations).

  • Ozone and CO SIPs deferred until 1973

    • Rollback for Ozone

    • APRAC 1A for CO

      • Turner Workbook with Line Source equation for roads


1970 1977 big issues
1970-1977 Big Issues

  • Region V SO2 FIPs

    • Sulfur Variability

    • Ex-Ex Model

  • Tall Stacks and Supplemental Control Systems

    • Power Plants

    • Smelters

    • Section 123 Stack Heights 1977 CAA


1970 1977 big issues cont
1970-1977 Big Issues (Cont.)

  • Ozone

    • Size of Domain

      • “Inter-Urban Transport Implausible”

    • No VOC Inventories

  • ORD First Efforts

    • St Louis RAPS Study

    • Massive Field Effort but no Emission Inventory


1978 psd modeling begins
1978 PSD Modeling Begins

  • EPA models not designed for increments

    • SIP modeling was case by case

  • Every vendor developed a proprietary model that met client needs

  • Consistent tracking of increments not possible

  • EPA standardized the models in early 1980’s

    • SCRAM Bulletin Board


1978 1982 ozone modeling
1978-1982 Ozone Modeling

  • SIP Guidance – Appendix J

    • Hockey stick graph

    • Based on Smog Chamber Studies from LA

  • EKMA

    • Combined smog chamber data and rollback

    • Still based on Urban Area

  • ORD Commits to Develop Ozone Model

  • SAI Urban Air Shed Model debuts (UAM)


1983 1990 ozone modeling
1983-1990 Ozone Modeling

  • UAM only Regional Model

    • Proprietary and Expensive

    • Used by California and Texas Industries

    • EKMA remained approved model

  • 1985-ORD almost cancels model development

    • States would attain by 1987 and model not needed

  • 1988 SAI almost shelves UAM

  • 1988 Five Cities Study

    • Atlanta, Dallas, St. Louis, Philadelphia, New York

    • Develop lower cost application

    • Develop State Capacity


Ozone modeling in 1990 s
Ozone Modeling in 1990’s

  • 1991 EPA ORD acknowledges role of NOx

  • 1993 OAQPS develops Relative Response methodology for models

  • 1995 Ozone Transport Assessment Group

    • Used UAM under license

    • CMAQ still not available

    • First Credible Regional Ozone Model Application

  • 1998 ORD release Models 3 and CMAQ



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