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Dinamika Spatial. PPS Ilmu Geografi 2007. Ekonomi dan Bisnis selalu berubah. Apalagi yang akan datang ?. Hidup dari lingkungan. terkonvergnsi. Perdagangan regional baru. Berburu dan bertani. Tata dunia baru (metanasional). Export/ import. globalisasi.

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Dinamika spatial

Dinamika Spatial

PPS Ilmu Geografi 2007


Dinamika spatial

Ekonomi dan Bisnis selalu berubah...

Apalagi yang akan datang ?

Hidup dari lingkungan

terkonvergnsi

Perdagangan regional baru

Berburu dan bertani

Tata dunia baru (metanasional)

Export/ import

globalisasi

Berdagang / transaksi benda berharga (uang)

Berdagang / barter

Jaman imperialisme………….... Imperialisme gaya baru


Long wave cycles of innovation

Long Wave Cycles of Innovation

Electricity

Chemicals

Internal-combustion

engine

Steam

Rail

Steel

Water power

Textiles

Iron

Petrochemicals

Electronics

Aviation

Digital networks

Software

New Media

Pace of innovation

1st Wave

2nd Wave

3rd Wave

4th Wave

5th Wave

1785

1845

1900

1950

1990

60 years

55 years

50 years

40 years

30 years


Kumulatif sumbangan moda transportasi terhadap peluang ekonomis

Kumulatif Sumbangan Moda Transportasi terhadap Peluang Ekonomis

Revolusi Industrial

Produksi Massal

Globalisasi

Telekomunikasi

Udara

Jalan darat

Peluang Ekonomis

Kereta Api

Kapal Penyeberangan

Kapal Laut

Kuda

1750

1775

1800

1825

1850

1875

1900

1925

1950

1975

2000

2025

2050


Sectors of the economy

Sectors of the Economy

Tertiary

Percent of Workforce

Secondary

Quaternary

Primary

Time


Spatial dynamic systems

f ( I (t+1) )

Spatial dynamic systems

f ( I (t) )

f ( I (t+2) )

f ( I (tn ))

F

F

. . .

Spatial dynamic systems simulates spatio-temporal processes in which the state of a location, on the Earth´s surface, changes over time, due to some physical phenomena.


Dynamic spatial models

Forecast

tp + 10

calibration

calibration

Dynamic spatial models

tp - 20

tp - 10

tp

fonte: Almeida et al (2003)


Spatial dynamic system elements

Transition Rules

Spatial dynamic system elements

discrete

continuous

hybrid

  • Models

Clue

FuzzyL(Clue)

Expander(Dinâmica)

LocalMean (Riks)

Dinâmica

Riks


Spatial dynamic system elements1

Spatial dynamic system elements

  • Space representation

  • Neighborhood

uniform proprieties

modelo celular

  • regular structure

non stationary

proximitry matrix


Space time modeling issues for current methods

Look at change over time at several localities

Look at change across space for several moments in time

Space-time modeling: issues for current methods


Dinamika spatial

Contoh Aplikasi berbasis Time-Space Convergence

(spatial diffusion)

t3

t3

t2

t2

t1

t1

Expansion Diffusion

Relocation Diffusion

Combination of Expansion and Relocation


Dinamika spatial

Contoh Aplikasi:

Over-bounded, under-bounded dan true-bounded

Under-bounded

Over-bounded

True-bounded

Batas funsional kota

Batas administrasi


Space time modeling issues for current methods1

Space-time modeling: issues for current methods


Space time modeling issues for current methods2

Epipaleo

Early Neol

Late Neol

U. Paleo

M. Paleo

Space-time modeling: issues for current methods


Space time modeling issues for current methods3

High resolution diachronic record in one or a few sitesunwarranted regional generalization across variable space

High resolution spatial record for a few time periodspast as a sequence of snapshots with change happening invisibly between (or stepwise change)

Conceptualizing rich socioecological variation across space and complex dynamics through time desirable but difficult with current methods

Space-time modeling: issues for current methods


Future directions in space time modeling

Goals for study of long-term dynamics of human ecology

High resolution models

spatial

chronological

Link dynamically so that

state of modeled ecosystem at any given time (t) is in part a function of ecosystem at prior time (t-1) and affects future state (t+1)

State of modeled ecosystem at any given locale is in part a function of state in surrounding locales

Test against archaeo-ecological record

Future directions in space-time modeling


Future directions in space time modeling an example

Future directions in space-time modeling: an example

  • Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics Project

  • Project locations at opposite ends of Mediterranean Basin

    • Encompasses wide range of ecological & social variation

    • Tracks initial spread of agriculture & replacement of foraging systems

    • Different trajectories to the appearance of social complexity and urbanism


Dynamic space time modeling

3 interlinked modeling environments in GIS platform

Potential landscape model

Reference landscape chronosequence

Agropastoral socioecology model

Initial state

Paleobotanical

data

Paleo-

vegetation

Veg. edaphic

parameters

Terrain

modeling:

multi-yr. steps

Potential landscape model

Modern

DEM

Climate

model

(temp&precip)

Paleo-

terrains

(DEM’s)

Reference landscape chronoseq.

Vegetation

modeling:

multi-yr. steps

Agent

Modeling

Agropastoral socioecology model

Geological

data

Settlement

& landuse

modeling

Vegetation

modeling:

multi-yr. steps

Terrain

modeling:

multi-yr. steps

Climate

model

(temp&precip)

Prehistoric

settlement

& landuse

Initial state

& validation

at various stages

Archeological

data

Dynamic space-time modeling


Dynamic space time modeling1

Potential landscape model: surface processes and landcover

Terrain

modeling:

multi-yr. steps

Potential landscape model

Climate

model

(temp&precip)

Vegetation

modeling:

multi-yr. steps

Dynamic space-time modeling


Dynamic space time modeling2

Reference landscape chronosequence: surface processes and landcover

Paleobotanical

data

Paleo-

vegetation

Veg. edaphic

parameters

Modern

DEM

Paleo-

terrains

(DEM’s)

Reference landscape chronoseq.

Geological

data

Prehistoric

settlement

& landuse

Archeological

data

Dynamic space-time modeling


Dynamic space time modeling3

Human landuse: agent simulation

Agent Modeling

Settlement &

landuse impacts

on terrain &

vegetation

Information Inputs

Temp. extremes

Precip. amt & dist

Terrain characteristics

Current vegetation

Settlement

Establish

Shrink/grow

Abandon

Location

Decision

Algorithms

Landuse

Location/extent

Cultivation (which crops)

Pasture (which animals)

Dynamic space-time modeling


Dynamic space time modeling4

Climate surface processes & landcover agent simulation

Landscape socioecology

Dynamic space-time modeling

Polop Valley Landuse Intensity

M. Paleolithicto Neolithic II

Vegetation

modeling:

multi-yr. steps

Agent

Modeling

Agropastoral socioecology model

Settlement

& landuse

modeling

Terrain

modeling:

multi-yr. steps

Climate

model

(temp&precip)


Dinamika spatial

Perkembangan kota


Dinamika spatial

Perkembangan kota


Spatial dynamic

Spatial Dynamic

  • Driven by :

  • Population

  • Economic activities

  • Technology

  • etc


Materi spatial dynamic

Space – time

Spatial changing dan changing overtime

Spatial Thinking

System Dynamic (1): Intro

System Dynamic (2): Latihan

Cases: Spatial Dynamic

Materi Spatial Dynamic


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