State of the macro economy
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State of the Macro-economy. Tanveer Singh Chandok (Director of Macroeconomics). World Economic State in a nutshell. World Economic State in a nutshell. Europe. Pulled out of the insane spiral at the end of 2012 Slow growth in 2013 Biggest problem currently: Credit Growth

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State of the Macro-economy

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State of the macro economy

State of the Macro-economy

Tanveer Singh Chandok (Director of Macroeconomics)


World economic state in a nutshell

World Economic State in a nutshell

GTSF Investments Committee


World economic state in a nutshell1

World Economic State in a nutshell

GTSF Investments Committee


Europe

Europe

  • Pulled out of the insane spiral at the end of 2012

  • Slow growth in 2013

  • Biggest problem currently: Credit Growth

    • Eurozone consumers are deleveraging but at a slower rate

  • Growth in the Eurozone mortgage loans continues to weaken

    • Primary contributors are Spain and Italy

      • Collapse in mortgage growth form the peak of 27% during pre-financial crises shows that the housing bubble in Spain is still unwinding

  • Bottom line: periphery of the Eurozone is still coming out the recession, ECB has not hit all targets

GTSF Investments Committee


North america fed up with the fed

North America: Fed up with the FED

  • GDP growth beat forecasts @ 2.5%

    • May initiate the FED to move with it’s tapering program

    • Stock prices rose, as did yields on govt. bonds

  • Recent surge in exports

  • Jobless claims in the U.S fell

  • Improving underlying private demand should support a pickup in GDP growth

  • Looking shaky towards the end of the quarter

    • FED tapering the $85 billion buy-back program

    • Estimates vary between as early as this September or mid-2014

GTSF Investments Committee


Emerging submergin g markets

Emerging Submerging Markets

GTSF Investments Committee


China

China

  • Main monthly figures from trade to industrial output improved in July

  • In the middle of a transition from an investment-led economy to a consumption-driven one; and from an economy addicted to rapidly rising credit to one that is more self-sustaining

  • The transition has not occurred yet, and monetary policy will play a key role in determining the rate of growth

GTSF Investments Committee


Japan

Japan

  • Q2 GDP growth @ 2.6% did not keep up with the blistering 3.6% growth towards the start of the year: still impressive

  • Shinzo Abe’s “3-arrow plan”:

    • Shocked the morbid economy into growth

    • The 3rd arrow, “structural reform” is still to prove it’s worth

GTSF Investments Committee


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