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Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?. Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA) Acknowledgements: Colin Terry (Water Corp), Andrew Watkins (NCC), Jay Lawrimore (NCDC), Lynda Chambers (BMRC), Peter Powers (BMRC). Outline. ‘Standard’ meteorological climatology

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Defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists

Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?

Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA)

Acknowledgements:Colin Terry (Water Corp), Andrew Watkins (NCC), Jay Lawrimore (NCDC), Lynda Chambers (BMRC), Peter Powers (BMRC)


Outline
Outline

  • ‘Standard’ meteorological climatology

  • Observed Trends and Breakpoints

  • Examples of the issues and responses in various sectors

  • Available help


Defining the present climate
Defining the present climate

1961-1990

http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/


Defining the present climate1
Defining the present climate

1961-1990

http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/


Trends a reason to change the baseline definition
Trends – A reason to change the ‘baseline’ definition?

Combined global land-surface air and sea surface temperatures (degrees Centigrade) 1861 to 1998, relative to 1961 to1990; University of East Anglia, UKhttp://www.grida.no/climate/vital/17.htm



National Climatic Data Centerhttp://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/trends.html


National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/


Annual temperature swwa
Annual Temperature SWWA

Created using “Diagnose”





National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/



Early winter swwa rainfall
Early Winter SWWA Rainfall

Break-point in time series at 1968/69

NB: IOCI in general uses a breakpoint of 1975/76, which is the breakpoint of the sea-level pressure data in the region


Changes to the baseline
Changes to the ‘baseline’

  • WMO suggested 1971-2000, but this was not adopted

  • Some agencies are using the full period, e.g. NCDC uses 1880-2004

  • Many sectors use the time-period most relevant to their purpose


Major system impacts
Major System Impacts

  • 2001 had 2nd worst inflow to Perth dams

  • 8 year sequence of lowered streamflow to 2005

http://www.watercorporation.com.au/Integrated water supply scheme – source development plan


Changes to streamflow probability
Changes to Streamflow Probability

177 GL is the mean over 1975-96


Response of water corp
Response of Water Corp.

  • Major desalination of seawater

  • Recycling of treated wastewater

  • Better management of dam catchments to improve inflows

  • Trading for water from irrigation cooperatives


Salt risk and land-useNB: This is an example only. The data is from station data interpolated onto a grid (Jones and Weymouth 1997). There will be differences from maps produced using other methods of interpolation

< 900 mm

< 900 mm

900-1100 mm

900-1100 mm

> 1100 mm

1950-1979

1980-2004

Forestry, Mining

Isohyet limits from Colin Terry, maps plotted using NCC gridded rainfall data by Pandora Hope


System response waterlogging frequency
System Response - Waterlogging Frequency


Wheat yield trend
Wheat Yield Trend

Source: ABS state averages


Agricultural responses
Agricultural Responses

  • Fewer very wet years may have affected rates of salinity spread

  • Sowing opportunities tend to occur later

  • Decreased waterlogging in susceptible areas. This may have improved conditions for cropping in higher rainfall areas

  • Technology changes have improved productivity despite generally drier years


Tools available
Tools available

  • http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/

  • Australian Rainman (QDNR, BoM et al)

  • DIAGNOSE; CD or website (v. large): ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/bmrc/perm/append/install_v3/

  • MetAccess (CSIRO et al)

  • Climate Calculator – Dept Ag

  • Future projections – IOCI, CSIRO


Conclusions
Conclusions

  • There have been strong trends in rainfall in Western Australia, causing sectors to re-examine the climate ‘baseline’

  • Impacts have been strong in some sectors, and variable in others

  • There is a range of tools that can help define climatology, opportunities and risks.



Agriculture altered rainfall pattern
Agriculture- Altered rainfall pattern


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