Defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists
This presentation is the property of its rightful owner.
Sponsored Links
1 / 27

Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists? PowerPoint PPT Presentation


  • 38 Views
  • Uploaded on
  • Presentation posted in: General

Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?. Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA) Acknowledgements: Colin Terry (Water Corp), Andrew Watkins (NCC), Jay Lawrimore (NCDC), Lynda Chambers (BMRC), Peter Powers (BMRC). Outline. ‘Standard’ meteorological climatology

Download Presentation

Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation

Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author.While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server.


- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - E N D - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

Presentation Transcript


Defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists

Defining the present climate: Why does it matter? What help exists?

Pandora Hope (BMRC) and Ian Foster (DAWA)

Acknowledgements:Colin Terry (Water Corp), Andrew Watkins (NCC), Jay Lawrimore (NCDC), Lynda Chambers (BMRC), Peter Powers (BMRC)


Outline

Outline

  • ‘Standard’ meteorological climatology

  • Observed Trends and Breakpoints

  • Examples of the issues and responses in various sectors

  • Available help


Defining the present climate

Defining the present climate

1961-1990

http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/


Defining the present climate1

Defining the present climate

1961-1990

http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/


Trends a reason to change the baseline definition

Trends – A reason to change the ‘baseline’ definition?

Combined global land-surface air and sea surface temperatures (degrees Centigrade) 1861 to 1998, relative to 1961 to1990; University of East Anglia, UKhttp://www.grida.no/climate/vital/17.htm


Defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists

http://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/trends.html


Defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists

National Climatic Data Centerhttp://lwf.ncdc.noaa.gov/oa/climate/research/trends.html


Defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists

National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/


Annual temperature swwa

Annual Temperature SWWA

Created using “Diagnose”


Summer temperature swwa

Summer Temperature SWWA


Early winter temperature swwa

Early Winter Temperature SWWA


Defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists

http://www.grida.no/climate/vital/18.htm


Defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists

National Climate Centre, Australian Bureau of Meteorologyhttp://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/


Seasonality of swwa rainfall decrease

Seasonality of SWWA Rainfall Decrease


Early winter swwa rainfall

Early Winter SWWA Rainfall

Break-point in time series at 1968/69

NB: IOCI in general uses a breakpoint of 1975/76, which is the breakpoint of the sea-level pressure data in the region


Changes to the baseline

Changes to the ‘baseline’

  • WMO suggested 1971-2000, but this was not adopted

  • Some agencies are using the full period, e.g. NCDC uses 1880-2004

  • Many sectors use the time-period most relevant to their purpose


Major system impacts

Major System Impacts

  • 2001 had 2nd worst inflow to Perth dams

  • 8 year sequence of lowered streamflow to 2005

http://www.watercorporation.com.au/Integrated water supply scheme – source development plan


Changes to streamflow probability

Changes to Streamflow Probability

177 GL is the mean over 1975-96


Response of water corp

Response of Water Corp.

  • Major desalination of seawater

  • Recycling of treated wastewater

  • Better management of dam catchments to improve inflows

  • Trading for water from irrigation cooperatives


Defining the present climate why does it matter what help exists

Salt risk and land-useNB: This is an example only. The data is from station data interpolated onto a grid (Jones and Weymouth 1997). There will be differences from maps produced using other methods of interpolation

< 900 mm

< 900 mm

900-1100 mm

900-1100 mm

> 1100 mm

1950-1979

1980-2004

Forestry, Mining

Isohyet limits from Colin Terry, maps plotted using NCC gridded rainfall data by Pandora Hope


System response waterlogging frequency

System Response - Waterlogging Frequency


Wheat yield trend

Wheat Yield Trend

Source: ABS state averages


Agricultural responses

Agricultural Responses

  • Fewer very wet years may have affected rates of salinity spread

  • Sowing opportunities tend to occur later

  • Decreased waterlogging in susceptible areas. This may have improved conditions for cropping in higher rainfall areas

  • Technology changes have improved productivity despite generally drier years


Tools available

Tools available

  • http://www.bom.gov.au/silo/products/cli_chg/

  • Australian Rainman (QDNR, BoM et al)

  • DIAGNOSE; CD or website (v. large): ftp://ftp.bom.gov.au/anon/home/bmrc/perm/append/install_v3/

  • MetAccess (CSIRO et al)

  • Climate Calculator – Dept Ag

  • Future projections – IOCI, CSIRO


Conclusions

Conclusions

  • There have been strong trends in rainfall in Western Australia, causing sectors to re-examine the climate ‘baseline’

  • Impacts have been strong in some sectors, and variable in others

  • There is a range of tools that can help define climatology, opportunities and risks.


Climate calculator dawa risk charts

Climate Calculator – DAWARisk Charts


Agriculture altered rainfall pattern

Agriculture- Altered rainfall pattern


  • Login