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U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research International Office (AFOSR/IO) ... Organized by Asia Policy Point (APP) Sponsored by Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) ...

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paul giarra hicks and associates incorporated

U.S. Air Force Office of Scientific Research International Office (AFOSR/IO)Asian Science & Technology Forum (AST)Organized by Asia Policy Point (APP)Sponsored by Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC)The New Dynamics of U.S.-Japan Armaments CooperationWednesday, October 4, 2006Framing the Negotiation:“Good intentions, not always observed in the breach.”

Paul GiarraHicks and Associates, Incorporated

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SIX PARTS

  • A Dozen Stipulations
  • General Observations on U.S.-Japan Armaments Cooperation
  • Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • Specific Recommendations
  • A Five Step Process
  • A History Lesson
a dozen stipulations
A Dozen Stipulations

1. Take the 10,000 ft. view. Don’t assume anyone else will. There is time for details later in the process.

2. As goes U.S.-Japan Armaments Cooperation, so goes a great alliance. Considering that we are addressing the security futures of two of the world’s great Pacific powers, the prospect of this negotiation is a sobering thought.

a dozen stipulations4
A Dozen Stipulations

3. U.S.-Japan Armaments Cooperation amounts to a negotiation with very high stakes, one that will set many trajectories -- technical, political, doctrinal, strategic, alliance -- for the United States and Japan, for American extended deterrence and power projection, and for effective air and missile defense.

a dozen stipulations5
A Dozen Stipulations

4. Japan is motivated. North Korea’s missile tests in 1998 and again on July 4th galvanized Japan, just as Sputnik focused the United States.

5. Even more enervating is the rise of China. Furthermore, the challenges of Iran and the global war on terror loom in the background.

a dozen stipulations6
A Dozen Stipulations

6. U.S.-Japan Armaments Cooperation will require extensive preparation, due diligence, and consideration of internal and external factors well beyond technical acquisition issues.

a dozen stipulations7
A Dozen Stipulations

7. Traditional expectations and measures of effectiveness -- i.e., statements of work; work share agreements; budgets framed and expended; hardware developed and delivered -- are insufficient and deceptive.

a dozen stipulations8
A Dozen Stipulations

8. To succeed, U.S.-Japan Armaments Cooperation will require an unnatural act: collaboration between and synthesis of politics, policy, operations, strategy, intelligence, technology, and acquisition.

This amounts to a very difficult integration challenge.

a dozen stipulations9
A Dozen Stipulations

American negotiators will have to get the U.S. story straight from the outset, which will derive from a variety of often uncoordinated American defense policies and strategies.

Allies expect to hear this story, and are reading and listening very carefully.

In this regard, don’t wait for perfect information. Get the policy and strategy information you need. Integrate Armaments Cooperation into those policies and strategies.

a dozen stipulations10
A Dozen Stipulations

10. The range of potential outcomes for the U.S. and for the U.S.-Japan alliance -- both positive and negative – is dramatically broad.

a dozen stipulations11
A Dozen Stipulations

11. We are on the cusp of a general recognition of the strategic importance of extended air and missile defense, driven by ballistic and cruise missile proliferation and escalation. This will influence every aspect of R&D and acquisition cooperation with Japan.

a dozen stipulations12
A Dozen Stipulations

12. This is not your father’s JASDF, JDA, or Japan, all of which will bring new capabilities, requirements, and expectations to the negotiating table.

Japan is changing fast, with new requirements, expectations, and strategic approaches.

general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan

The USG is in the midst of a series of ongoing, increasingly complex, and difficult negotiation.

Due diligence, clear objectives, explicit requests, and anticipating and controlling outcomes on the part of the USG -- and American industry partners -- are essential to success.

general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan14
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan
  • Agree on goals and objectives up front.
  • Don’t wait for perfect information.
  • We do not have to know “everything” in order to proceed.
  • Expect and be prepared for change.
general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan15
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan
  • Plan for internal U.S. engagement with two goals:
    • USG leadership alignment at the highest possible levels; and
    • Downward direction provided to the rest of the government.
  • Don’t force or enable freelancing or dissent.
general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan16
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan

This is a multi-player game internally and externally.

Japan is not the only international actor involved, and the approach to Japan cannot be conceived or executed in isolation.

(Yes, this includes China.)

general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan17
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan

Involving Japan and other allies from the earliest possible point in planning for R&D and acquisition cooperation pays great dividends.

Other allies have an interest in many of the same acquisition programs, and nevertheless will be interested in outcomes involving Japan.

general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan18
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan

Be sure to ask for what you want from Japan and other prospective international negotiating partners.

This sounds self-evident, but is not always done.

Be sure to articulate -- at least internally -- both what you want and what you are not willing to give up.

general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan19
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan

Remember:

You will chase your Japanese counterparts until they catch you.

general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan20
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan
  • R&D and acquisition cooperationincludes essential internal and external components:
  • Internal (“Traditional”)
  • Alliance relations
  • Industrial base
  • Technology base
  • Bureaucratic relations
general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan21
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan
  • External (“Non-Traditional”) (1)
  • The rise of China and Iran
  • North Korea as a Japanese stalking horse for China
  • Connectivity and integration as well as interoperability
  • Evolving extended air defense goals, objectives, and doctrines
general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan22
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan
  • External (“Non-Traditional”) (2)
  • Geo-strategic competitions involving the United States and Japan
  • Alliance roles and missions, in particular redressing the split in air defense connectivity
  • Changing Japanese defense policy
  • Early warning and C4ISR
  • National missile defense considerations and implications, at least for Japan and more than likely for the United States
general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan23
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan

Take into account essential operational and strategic factors relevant to Japan and to the rest of the Asia-Pacific.

general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan24
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan

Technical issues and technology considerations are extraordinarily consequential to all parties. This will require that negotiators forge close partnerships with technical experts and technology leaders.

Leverage the available extraordinary U.S. influence and connections with the Japanese civilian science and technology community.

general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan25
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan

Projecting into the future is fundamental.

This negotiation will affect and shape -- and be shaped by -- the future bilateral alliance with Japan and the future security environment in which that alliance and U.S. forces must operate.

Take into account intelligence assessments and long term projections that include “non-traditional” exogenous factors.

general observations on r d and acquisition cooperation with japan26
General Observations on R&D and Acquisition Cooperation with Japan

The key task is to enable successful and integrated USG leadership through careful and authoritative internal U.S. coordination and collaboration.

specific recommendations
Specific Recommendations

Centralized leadership is a tide that lifts all boats.

OSD’s role is paramount.

specific recommendations28
Specific Recommendations

Identify U.S. stakeholders and U.S. decisionmakers. Include them in planning and the negotiating process from the beginning.

The importance of achieving American consensus cannot be overestimated.

This is 99% of the effort.

specific recommendations29
Specific Recommendations

Establish authoritative U.S. leadership commitment from the outset.

specific recommendations30
Specific Recommendations

Understand and incorporate in negotiation objectives and strategies the operational and strategic implications of transferring American technology.

Engage leadership in these deliberations and decisions.

specific recommendations31
Specific Recommendations

Coordinate the U.S. interagency position in advance of bilateral and/or multilateral overtures.

specific recommendations32
Specific Recommendations

Get Congress involved -- not because Congress might be against R&D and acquisition cooperation with Japan, but because Congress has to be for it.

specific recommendations33
Specific Recommendations

On the one hand, Congress will pay for advanced U.S. defense capability, but must understand and be persuaded of its value.

Likewise, Congress will accept the negotiated bargain -- what we will give, and what we will get in return -- if it is consulted early, often, and effectively.

specific recommendations34
Specific Recommendations

Perhaps it goes without saying, but it should not be left unsaid:

Don’t limit consideration of programmatic cooperation to Japan.

There are other international partners to be considered. Their interests will affect U.S. and Japanese considerations and objectives.

specific recommendations35
Specific Recommendations

Some lessons learned in the process of negotiating with Japan will apply to other negotiating partners, if not across the board.

Sunk costs in preparing for negotiations with Japan (such as achieving American consensus that is 99% of the effort) will defray effort and expense in other negotiations.

cross cutting and synthesized due diligence and essential knowledge
Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • All U.S. stakeholders and players need to know the following:
  • The future technical state of the art of individual and combined U.S. defense technologies and systems contemplated for cooperative R&D and acquisition.
cross cutting and synthesized due diligence and essential knowledge37
Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • U.S. stakeholders and players need to know:
  • Strategic, technical, political, and national defense industrial base implications of technology transfer.
  • The future security environment, strategically and at the operational level of war, on a global and regional basis.
cross cutting and synthesized due diligence and essential knowledge38
Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • U.S. stakeholders and players need to know:
  • U.S. Air Force strategies, plans and policies vis-à-vis technologies and systems.
  • Differences of view, perspective, and objectives in the U.S., inter alia: OSD, Air Force, Regional Combatant Commanders, numbered Air Force Commanders, Congress, and industry (systems and production).
cross cutting and synthesized due diligence and essential knowledge39
Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • U.S. stakeholders and players need to know:
  • Japanese stakeholders.
  • Variegated Japanese expectations and negotiating goals.
  • Japanese decisionmakers
cross cutting and synthesized due diligence and essential knowledge40
Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • U.S. stakeholders and players need to know:
  • Other international stakeholders.
  • Other international expectations.
  • Other international decisionmakers
cross cutting and synthesized due diligence and essential knowledge41
Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • Develop, coordinate, and conduct a public information operations campaign.
cross cutting and synthesized due diligence and essential knowledge42
Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • Consider the record of Theater Missile Defense with Japan as a possible template.
  • Assess TMD lessons, successes, and failures, and the future political salience of repeating this approach.
  • Consider FS-X as a politically expensive lesson.
cross cutting and synthesized due diligence and essential knowledge43
Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • Incorporate the lessons learned, implications, and precedents set of the UK MOD visit to Washington earlier this year.
  • Press reports indicate that he insisted on technical transparency, SIPRNET access, and technology sharing in the Joint Strike Fighter program.
cross cutting and synthesized due diligence and essential knowledge44
Cross-Cutting and Synthesized Due Diligence and Essential Knowledge
  • Objectively gauge Japanese propensity for cooperation, in the fullest sense, from the differing perspectives of each of the Japanese stakeholders and decisionmakers.
  • The willingness and ability to cooperate is very conflicted in some quarters in Japan.
a five step process
A Five Step Process
  • STEP 1.
  • By program and technology (for each step):
  • Assess who will be interested in R&D and acquisition cooperation: the Japanese and others, and
  • Determine what they want.
a five step process46
A Five Step Process
  • STEP 2.
  • Decide what DoD needs/wants technically, financially, and politically from the Japanese and others.
  • Don’t limit the set of requirements to symmetric exchange.
a five step process47
A Five Step Process
  • STEP 3.
  • Decide what we will not give away to Japan and others.
  • Discriminate as necessary.
a five step process48
A Five Step Process
  • STEP 4.
  • Assess what the Japanese and others can offer in assistance.
a five step process49
A Five Step Process
  • STEP 5.
  • Determine the overlap between 1, 2, 3, and 4.
  • Establish U.S. objectives.
  • Determine the negotiating space.
history lesson
History Lesson

History does not repeat, but it does rhyme.

The Washington Naval Conference of 1921-22 provides a number of useful historical lessons regarding negotiations with Japan at a crucial historical juncture.

history lesson51
History Lesson

The Washington Naval Conference set the strategic trajectory for naval competition in the Pacific in the inter-war years.

Japan was ambitious, ambivalent, competitive, anxious, defensive, and resentful of its treatment by the Great Powers after World War I.

history lesson52
History Lesson

Generally, American and Japanese negotiators were on very different pages throughout the conference.

Failure to discern the extent and significance of this dichotomy was the manifestation of and led to continued strategic divergence.

history lesson53
History Lesson

American negotiators profited greatly throughout the process from very effective intelligence support.

summary
Summary
  • Frame the negotiation, but prepare for change.
  • U.S. first:
    • Leadership engaged
    • American interests
  • Think out of the box.
  • Re-define success.
summary55
Summary
  • Coordinate, coordinate, coordinate.
  • Five Steps = Clear Objectives.
  • Identify internal and external stakeholders.
  • Due diligence = Information dominance
  • Information dominance = Success.
summary56
Summary
  • The stakes are very high
    • -- potentially as high as they’ve ever been.
  • History rhymes, and the historical record holds valuable lessons.
  • Asa meshi mae ni dekimasu
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