Decision support systems for forest biodiversity
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NCSSF Project A10. Decision Support Systems for Forest Biodiversity. Evaluation of Current Systems and Future Needs. K. Norman Johnson Sean Gordon Oregon State University Oct. 14, 2003. http://ncseonline.org/NCSSF/DSS/. Research Questions.

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Decision support systems for forest biodiversity

NCSSF Project A10

Decision Support Systems for Forest Biodiversity

Evaluation of Current Systems

and Future Needs

K. Norman Johnson

Sean Gordon

Oregon State University

Oct. 14, 2003

http://ncseonline.org/NCSSF/DSS/


Research questions

Research Questions

  • What problems and issues do decision support systems for forest biodiversity need to address?

  • What decision support systems are available for forest biodiversity analysis?

  • How well do they address problems and issues?

  • What additional tools (or capabilities) are required to meet forest biodiversity management needs?


Definitions dss

Definitions : DSS

  • DSS are tools which

    • are policy/management-oriented (decision)

    • deal with complexity (support)

    • have a clear, reproducible protocol (system)

    • are computer-based

  • Not

    • HSI’s alone

    • research models

    • forest certification standards

    • informal expert systems (FEMAT)


Definitions biodiversity

Definitions: Biodiversity

  • …variety and variability among living organisms and the ecological complexes in which they occur…number of different items and their relative frequency (OTA 1987)

  • "Biodiversity is the totality of genes, species, and ecosystems in a region” (UNEP 1992)

  • Montreal Protocol Criterion 1

    • ecosystems (1-5 coarse filter), species & genetic (6-9 fine filter)

  • composition, structure, and function (Franklin)


Approach

Approach

ID most important biodiversity issues

Inventory of available DSS

Comparison:

Needs vs. Tools

Guidance for potential DSS users

Suggestions for future DSS development


Results priority issues

Results : Priority Issues

  • Nature of forest biodiversity problems

    • Simple, complex, wicked

  • Substance of forest biodiversity problems

    • Characterizing biodiversity

    • Influences on forest habitats

    • Analytical methods


Nature of forest biodiversity problems

Nature of Forest Biodiversity Problems


Nature of forest biodiversity problems perspectives on forestry

Nature of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsPerspectives on Forestry


Nature of forest biodiversity problems operational measures

Nature of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsOperational Measures

  • Accommodate different kinds of perspectives & information (biophysical, economic, social)

  • Produce results for decision makers at multiple spatial scales(landowners to policymakers)

  • Facilitate social negotiation and learning


Substance of forest biodiversity problems analytical methods forest influences

Substance of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsAnalytical Methods & Forest Influences

Analytical Methods

  • Risk assessment

  • Trade-Offs (economic/ecological, species/species)

  • Landscape Analysis

    Influences on Forest Habitats

  • Silviculture & timber harvest

  • Biological (pests, pathogens, invasives)

  • Fire

  • Development

  • Climate change


Substance of forest biodiversity problems characterizing biodiversity

Substance of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsCharacterizing Biodiversity

Montreal Process Criterion 1 Indicators

Aggregate forest condition measures

  • Area by forest type

  • Area by forest age / successional stage

  • Area by management class

  • Fragmentation of forest types

    Species measures

  • Diversity

  • Viability

  • Distribution

  • Abundance


Selection of systems for review

Selection of Systems for Review

  • Inventory identified 114 systems total

  • Categorized & screened by purpose

    • FOR-BDV: forest biodiversity DSS

    • BDV: biodiversity mgmt DSS

    • FOR: forest management DSS

    • GEN: general purpose DSS applied to forest biodiversity

    • Other: not reviewed

  • 31 systems reviewed (screening additional 26)


Substance of forest biodiversity problems characterizing biodiversity1

PATCH

Substance of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsCharacterizing Biodiversity


Substance of forest biodiversity problems characterizing biodiversity2

Substance of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsCharacterizing Biodiversity


Substance of forest biodiversity problems characterizing biodiversity3

RAMAS

FRAGSTATS

Substance of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsCharacterizing Biodiversity


Substance of forest biodiversity problems analysis methods forest influences

Substance of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsAnalysis Methods & Forest Influences


Substance of forest biodiversity problems analysis methods forest influences1

Substance of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsAnalysis Methods & Forest Influences


Substance of forest biodiversity problems analysis methods forest influences2

Substance of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsAnalysis Methods & Forest Influences


Nature of forest biodiversity problems wicked problems

Nature of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsWicked Problems


Nature of forest biodiversity problems wicked problems1

Nature of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsWicked Problems


Nature of forest biodiversity problems wicked problems2

Nature of Forest Biodiversity ProblemsWicked Problems


Conclusions given substance of problem

Conclusions Given Substance of Problem

  • Integration of forest & biodiversity management DSS has potential to address majority of issues

  • Sparse on biodiversity effects of climate, biologicals, fire

  • Few options for small owners

  • Diversity of approaches, but no widely accepted DSS for forest biodiversity


Conclusions given nature of problem

Conclusions Given Nature of Problem

  • Emergence of ecological as well as economic worldview

    • DSS must accommodate fundamental assumptions of both

  • Decisions no longer made by an elite group

    • DSS must be understandable & compelling to broad audiences

  • No definitive solutions to wicked problems

    • DSS should facilitate social learning (“telling stories”)


Concluding work

Concluding Work

  • Verification of results through developer & user interviews

  • Continue publishing results on project web site:

    http://ncseonline.org/ncssf/dss/

  • Add online tools to help users & potential users choose appropriate DSS(web site search capabilities / DSS selection “wizard”)

  • Final report


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