Economy 2030 (Let’s just round up from 2022…) Where we’ve been; where we’re going.

1. Economy 2030(Let’s just round up from 2022…)Where we’ve been; where we’re going. Kara Markley Regional EconomistU.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics July 29, 2014

2. Where we’re going today... • A little about BLS data • Current economic situation in the U.S. and Mid-Atlantic region • Employment Projections and Occupational Outlook • Economic assumptions • Industry projections • Occupational projections

3. About the BLS The BLS is the principal fact-finding agency for the Federal Government in the broad field of labor economics and statistics The BLS mission is to collect, process, analyze and disseminate data BLS is an independent statistical agency. It serves its diverse user communities by providing products and services that are objective, timely, accurate, and relevant. Users include the American public, Congress, Federal agencies, state and local governments, businesses, labor organizations

4. Voluntary Cooperation • Nearly all of our surveys are voluntary • Confidentiality is as important to the Bureau as it is to respondents • We do our best to reduce respondent burden • Without the cooperation of the people who participate in its surveys—people like you—the Bureau of Labor Statistics could not provide high-quality information about the economy to you • We greatly appreciate the cooperation of our survey respondents. Thank You!!

5. Employment • National, state, and metropolitan area employment data comes from the Current Employment Statistics (CES), collected from business establishments. • National employment levels released with the Employment Situation on the first Friday of the month. • Available by industry.

6. Unemployment rates • National: The Current Population Survey (CPS) is a monthly survey of households conducted by the Bureau of Census for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. • Regional, state & local: The Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program produces data for Census regions and divisions, states, counties, metropolitan areas, and many cities, by place of residence.

7. Unemployment rates by state:May 2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

8. Unemployment rates in the United States and Mid-Atlantic states: May 2011-2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

9. Unemployment rates for major age-sex groups, 2004-2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

10. Unemployment rates by race and ethnicity, 2004-2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

11. Unemployment rates for persons 25 years and older by educational attainment, 2004-2014 Data are seasonally adjusted

12. Employment Total nonfarm, 1-year and 5-year net change, Mid-Atlantic states Data are not seasonally adjusted

13. Employment: Percent change in total nonfarm, United States and Mid-Atlantic states Data are not seasonally adjusted

14. Employment: Net change by industry supersector, Delaware Data are not seasonally adjusted

15. Employment: Net change by industry supersector, District of Columbia Data are not seasonally adjusted

16. Employment: Net change by industry supersector, Maryland Data are not seasonally adjusted

17. Employment: Net change by industry supersector, Pennsylvania Data are not seasonally adjusted

18. Employment: Net change by industry supersector, Virginia Data are not seasonally adjusted

19. Employment: Net change by industry supersector, West Virginia Data are not seasonally adjusted

20. Employment Projections • 10-year projections made every 2 years • 2012-22 projections cover over 800 occupations and 300 industries • BLS projections prepared at the national level only

21. Projections Uses • Career counselors and students making career choice decisions • Mid-career jobseekers looking to switch occupations • Education and training officials making decisions on policy, funding, and program offerings • Researchers interested in how the economy is changing

22. Employment Projections Products • Occupational Outlook Handbook • Occupational Outlook Quarterly • Long-term employment projections by industry and occupation • Technical materials—replacement rates, education and training categories, and more

23. Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Assumptions: Labor Force and Economic Conditions

24. In the future, we see… • The economy will grow at a slower rate over the period 2012-2022. • The number of people over the age of 65 will increase by 38.7 percent, while the total population increases by 10.1 percent. • Housing availability will average 1.6 million per year over the decade. • Investment in computers and software will increase by 109 percent.

25. Population and Labor Force Millionsof persons 2012 Projected 2022 2002 2012 Projected 2022 2002 Data Source :U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

26. Population Growth Rate Annual rates of change Data Source :U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Labor Statistics

27. Labor Force Participation Rates Percent Men Total Women

28. Labor Force Share by Age Group

29. Labor Force Change by Age Group: Projected 2012-22 In thousands of people

30. Labor Force Percent Change by Age Group: Projected 2012-22 Total labor force growth= 5.5%

31. Unemployment Rate

32. Employment Millions of jobs Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment

33. Total Nonagricultural Wage and Salary Employment In millions NOTE: The interim years between 2012and the 2022 projection point expressed by astraight dashed line are not projected values.

34. Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Industry Employment

35. Service providing Goods producing Employment by Industry Sector: 2012 Thousands of wage and salary jobs

36. Service providing Goods producing Employment Change by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22 Thousands of wage and salary jobs

37. Service providing Goods producing Rate of Change in Employment by Industry Sector: Projected 2012-22 Annual rate of change for wage and salary employment Total nonagricultural wage and salary annual growth= 1.0%

38. Employment Outlook: 2012-22 Occupational Employment

39. Employment by Major Occupational Group: 2012 Thousands of jobs (Continued on next slide)

40. Employment by Major Occupational Group: 2012 Thousands of jobs (Continued)

41. Percent Change vs. Numeric Change

42. Percent Change vs. Numeric Change Let’s look at this concept using Instagram: • Number of Instagram followers • Alicia Keys: 1,000,000 • Henry: 10 • Numeric increase • Alicia Keys: 50,000 • Henry: 5 • Percentage increase • Alicia Keys: 5% • Henry: 50%

43. Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group Average, all occupations = 10.8% Projected 2012-22 (Continued on next slide)

44. Percent Change in Employment by Major Occupational Group (Continued) Projected 2012-22 Average, all occupations = 10.8%

45. Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 (Continued on next slide)

46. Employment Change by Major Occupational Group Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22 (Continued)

47. Fastest Growing Occupations Percent change, projected 2012-22

48. Occupations with the Largest Job Growth Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22

49. Fastest Declining Occupations Percent change, projected 2012-22

50. Occupations with the Largest Employment Declines Thousands of jobs, projected 2012-22