Implications of the climate change debate on land tenure in the amazon
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Implications of the climate change debate on land tenure in the Amazon. Paulo Barreto Senior Researcher at Imazon. Climate change. Adaptation. Mitigation. Avoided deforestaton. Reforestation Aforestation. Biofuel. Conventional. 2nd generation. Increased environmental enforcement.

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Implications of the climate change debate on land tenure in the amazon

Implications of the climate change debate on land tenure in the Amazon

Paulo Barreto

Senior Researcher at Imazon


Climate change the Amazon

Adaptation

Mitigation

Avoided

deforestaton

Reforestation

Aforestation

Biofuel

Conventional

2nd generation

Increased

environmental

enforcement

Increased

agricultural

land price

Non-agricultural

land

Reclamation of

public lands

Increased land

use productivity

Creation of

protected areas

Displacement

of cattle

ranching

Increased

deforestaion

in old ocupations

Payment

environmental

services

Increased

deforestation

in new occupations


The brazilian amazon

Total size: the Amazon

5.2 million Km2

Original forest:

4.1 million Km2

~17% deforested

~ 23 million people

45% poor

The Brazilian Amazon

Deforestation data: Inpe, 2007


Messy land tenure situation in the amazon
Messy land tenure situation in the Amazon the Amazon

  • Lack of unified land cadastre

  • Overlap between public and private lands

  • Huge amount of informal possessions

  • Million of hectares illegally documented


Who owns the amazon
Who owns the Amazon? the Amazon

Rough estimates of land tenure status (million hectares and %)


Unclear status of private holdings in the amazon
Unclear status of private holdings in the Amazon the Amazon

“Private land” tenure status in 2003 (million hectares and %)

Source: National Institute of Agrarian Reform and Colonization (Incra)


Unclear future of mitigation

Unclear future of mitigation the Amazon------------------------------------

Adoption of biofuels

How much? How fast?

----------------------------------------

Development of 2nd generation biofuels?

Oil prices?

Impacts on the environment and food price?


Projected area to the Amazon be allocated to biofuels:32 million hectares worldwide by 2030111 million or more hectares in Brazil2

1 Fraiture, C., Giordano, M. & Yongsong, L. Biofuels and implications for agricultural water use: blue impacts of green energy. International Water Management Institute. Colombo, Sri Lanka.

2 Assis, V; Elstrodt, H. & Silva. C. F.C. 2007. Positioning Brazil for biofuels success. The McKinsey Quarterly. McKinsey & Company.


Agricultural price increase due to the adoption of biofuels
Agricultural price increase due the Amazonto the adoption of biofuels

% increase by 2020 compared to 2005

Source of data: Msangi, S. et al. 2007. Global Scenarios for Biofuels: Impacts and Implications.

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).


Biofuels would escalate the displacement of cattle ranching to the amazon
Biofuels would escalate the displacement of cattle ranching to the Amazon

Biofuel

Sugarcane in

old pastsures outside

Amazon

Corn and soybeans

in old pastsures inside

and outside Amazon

Displacement

of cattle ranching

to the Amazon


Growth of cattle herd in the amazon
Growth of cattle herd in the Amazon to the Amazon

Cattle heads in the Amazon and remainder of Brazil

Amazon´s share of the Brazilian cattle herd


Growth of sugarcane plantation in brazil

Hectares of sugarcane to the Amazon

1990-2006

Brazil´s ethanol exports 2001-2006

Growth of sugarcane plantation in Brazil


Decrease of cattle herd in s o paulo state the main sugarcane producer
Decrease of cattle herd in São Paulo State – the main sugarcane producer

Million cattle head in São Paulo – 1990-2006




Growth of pastureland price in central par state
Growth of pastureland price in central Pará State Amazon

Source of data: Anualpec 2002, 2004 and 2007.


Growth of agricultural establishments in the amazon mostly occupation of public lands
Growth of agricultural establishments in the Amazon AmazonMostly occupation of public lands

Source of data: IBGE – Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics


Case growth of cattle herd and landholdings in novo progresso
Case: growth of cattle herd and landholdings in Novo Progresso

Number and area of

landholdings

Cattle heads


Occupations to force land reform
Occupations to force land reform Progresso

Number of families involved in occupations 1997- 2004

Source of data: Comissão Pastoral da Terra (Catholic Church Land Commission)


Examples of measures to deal with occupations and conflicts
Examples of measures to deal with occupations and conflicts Progresso

Growth of land reform settlements

Creation of protected areas


But…. Progresso

  • ~ 40 million hectares continues as informal possessions

  • Unfinished review of documentation of 76 million hectares of rural properties

  • Delay for creating unified land cadastre


Conclusions
Conclusions Progresso

  • Climate change pressure may escalate occupation pressure

  • Georeferenced cadastre necessary to monitor avoided deforestation

  • The Brazilian government is ill equipped

  • Significant investment necessary


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