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TTMA. 2004-4 Travel Trends Update Presented by December 2, 2004. Lauren Schlau Consulting. Travel & Tourism Market Research since 1978 at SDCVB; LSC since 1992 TTMA Past Pres. CalTIA Executive Board Consult to CVBs and others in travel industry

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slide1

TTMA

2004-4

Travel Trends Update

Presented by

December 2, 2004

slide2

Lauren Schlau Consulting

  • Travel & Tourism Market Research since 1978 at SDCVB; LSC since 1992
  • TTMAPast Pres.
  • CalTIA Executive Board
  • Consult to CVBs and others in travel industry
  • Visitor conversion, economic impact, ad effectiveness & ROI studies
  • Needs a vacation
slide3

“Gemini” U.S. & Local Economy

Jobs, GDP, retail sales, travel UP but….

  • Higher Prices/Fuel Costs
  • Rising Interest Rates
  • Inconsistent Consumer Confidence/ insecurity
  • Value Obsessed Travelers
  • Last Minute Bookings
slide5

U.S. Travel Volume in U.S.

Domestic Person Trips and International Visitors (millions)

Source: Travel Industry Association

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1

7

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slide7

Southern California Pie

  • 22.2 Mil. People In Southern California
  • More than 7.5 Mil. Households
  • About 10.1 Mil. Employees
  • Estimated 286,000 Hotel/Motel Rooms
  • SoCal is about 61% of the State: 22.2 mm. Of 36.1 mm. Calif. Population10.1 mm. Of 16.2 mm. Calif. Employees
slide12

Domestic Air Travel To SoCal*

Millions

*Initiated Air Trips To Southern California (OD1a)

slide13

So Cal U.S. Air Origin Markets

(*Initiated Air Trips To Southern California - OD1a)

slide15

Visitors To Southern California in 2004 (Overnight)

  • 46.5 mill. overnight visitors (+4.3%)
  • 88% (41 mil) domestic, 12% (5 mil) international
  • So Cal Visitors spent $24+ billion (+7.6%)
  • 25 million stayed in a hotel or motel (53%)
  • 18 million arrived by air
slide16

SoCal Hotel Market

So Cal = 223,300 Rooms

Rooms

*PKF Consulting Inc. 2004 Lodging Industry Forecast

slide17

2004-05 SoCal Visitor Forecast

  • Visitors46.5 M (Prelim. 2004) + 4.6%47.5 - 48 M (2005 Forecast) + 2.2%-3%
  • International Visitors5.3 M (Prelim 2004) + 5.7%5.6 - 5.9 M (2005 Forecast) + 6% to 10%
  • Domestic Visitors41.2 M (Prelim. 2004) + 3.5%41.9 - 42.1 M (2005 Forecast) + 1.7% to 2.4%
  • Spending$24.2 B (Prelim. 2004) + 7.6%$25.6 - $26.1 B (Forecast 2005) + 5.7%-7.8%Source: CIC Research
research resources
Research Resources
  • Tourism: WTO, PATA IACVB, TIA, CalTour, OTTI
  • Transportation: ATA, NTA, Amtrak, AAA, Airports
  • Attractions: Attractions news, National & State Parks; museums
  • Economy: US Government, local Colleges,
  • Demographics: US Census (from national to census block level)
  • Hotels: PKF Consulting, Smith Travel Research, AHLA, City (for TOT)
examples of gemini trends
Examples of “Gemini” Trends
  • What’s real – Mickey Mouse will be the 2005 Rose Bowl Grand Marshall
  • More airlines dropping first – class…. While at the same time…
  • Corporate Jets Making A Comeback; deliveries are up 10% due to tax benefits and airport hassles
  • Anyway, happy planning… 
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Thank You Very Much !

www.lsconsult.com

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