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TTMA. 2004-4 Travel Trends Update Presented by December 2, 2004. Lauren Schlau Consulting. Travel & Tourism Market Research since 1978 at SDCVB; LSC since 1992 TTMA Past Pres. CalTIA Executive Board Consult to CVBs and others in travel industry

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Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

TTMA

2004-4

Travel Trends Update

Presented by

December 2, 2004


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

Lauren Schlau Consulting

  • Travel & Tourism Market Research since 1978 at SDCVB; LSC since 1992

  • TTMAPast Pres.

  • CalTIA Executive Board

  • Consult to CVBs and others in travel industry

  • Visitor conversion, economic impact, ad effectiveness & ROI studies

  • Needs a vacation


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

“Gemini” U.S. & Local Economy

Jobs, GDP, retail sales, travel UP but….

  • Higher Prices/Fuel Costs

  • Rising Interest Rates

  • Inconsistent Consumer Confidence/ insecurity

  • Value Obsessed Travelers

  • Last Minute Bookings


Worldwide no america tourism

Worldwide & No. America Tourism


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

U.S. Travel Volume in U.S.

Domestic Person Trips and International Visitors (millions)

Source: Travel Industry Association


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

1

7

8

2

3

4

5

9

6

10


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

Southern California Pie

  • 22.2 Mil. People In Southern California

  • More than 7.5 Mil. Households

  • About 10.1 Mil. Employees

  • Estimated 286,000 Hotel/Motel Rooms

  • SoCal is about 61% of the State:22.2 mm. Of 36.1 mm. Calif. Population10.1 mm. Of 16.2 mm. Calif. Employees


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

So Cal Travel Volume

Millions


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

SoCal Ports of Entry-All Overseas

Millions


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

So Cal Ports of Entry - Japan

Millions


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

SoCal Ports of Entry - U.K.

Millions


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

Domestic Air Travel To SoCal*

Millions

*Initiated Air Trips To Southern California (OD1a)


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

So Cal U.S. Air Origin Markets

(*Initiated Air Trips To Southern California - OD1a)


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

SoCal Visitor Spending ($Billions)


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

Visitors To Southern California in 2004 (Overnight)

  • 46.5 mill. overnight visitors (+4.3%)

  • 88% (41 mil) domestic, 12% (5 mil) international

  • So Cal Visitors spent $24+ billion (+7.6%)

  • 25 million stayed in a hotel or motel (53%)

  • 18 million arrived by air


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

SoCal Hotel Market

So Cal = 223,300 Rooms

Rooms

*PKF Consulting Inc. 2004 Lodging Industry Forecast


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

2004-05 SoCal Visitor Forecast

  • Visitors46.5 M (Prelim. 2004)+ 4.6%47.5 - 48 M (2005 Forecast)+ 2.2%-3%

  • International Visitors5.3 M (Prelim 2004)+ 5.7%5.6 - 5.9 M (2005 Forecast)+ 6% to 10%

  • Domestic Visitors41.2 M (Prelim. 2004)+ 3.5%41.9 - 42.1 M (2005 Forecast)+ 1.7% to 2.4%

  • Spending$24.2 B (Prelim. 2004)+ 7.6%$25.6 - $26.1 B (Forecast 2005)+ 5.7%-7.8%Source: CIC Research


Research resources

Research Resources

  • Tourism: WTO, PATA IACVB, TIA, CalTour, OTTI

  • Transportation: ATA, NTA, Amtrak, AAA, Airports

  • Attractions: Attractions news, National & State Parks; museums

  • Economy: US Government, local Colleges,

  • Demographics: US Census (from national to census block level)

  • Hotels: PKF Consulting, Smith Travel Research, AHLA, City (for TOT)


Examples of gemini trends

Examples of “Gemini” Trends

  • What’s real – Mickey Mouse will be the 2005 Rose Bowl Grand Marshall

  • More airlines dropping first – class…. While at the same time…

  • Corporate Jets Making A Comeback; deliveries are up 10% due to tax benefits and airport hassles

  • Anyway, happy planning… 


Ttma 2004 4 travel trends update

Thank You Very Much !

www.lsconsult.com


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