MAN AND ENERGY A case for Sustainable Living through Renewable and Green Energy

1. MAN AND ENERGYA case for Sustainable Living through Renewable and Green Energy Ali Keyhani Professor of Electrical and Computer Engineering The Ohio State University Columbus, OH-43210 keyhani.1@osu.edu Keyhani.1@osu.edu

2. ABSTRACT • Energy technologies have a central role in social and economic developments at all scales. • Energy is closely linked environmental pollution, degradation to economic development and quality of living. • We are dependent on nonrenewable fossil fuels that have been and will continue to be major cause of pollution and climatic change. • Petroleum supplies are dwindling. • Thus finding sustainable alternatives is an urgent concern. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

3. ….ABSTRACT Challenges • To develop technology for integration, control of renewable energy sources, control of energy consumption and load management. • To empower energy user for a sustainable living. • Developing Distributed Generation system where energy user is also an energy producer. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

4. …ABSTRACT • In this talk, an overview of humankind energy use is presented. • Man and Energy --- the past. • Man and Energy--- the last hundred years. • Man and Energy---the future • Then the talk, focuses on some of the challenges and efforts needed to harness renewable energy sources for a sustainable human society. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

5. MAN HISTORY • Early human forays into the Middle East from Africa around 100,000 to 150,000 years ago. • These early settlers were replaced by Neanderthals in the region about 80,000 years ago. • Possible triggers for migration : increase in population, a change in diet, the acquisition of language and climatic change. • Around 40,000 years ago, grip of Ice Age loosened, temperature became warmer, humans moved into Central Asia and multiplied quickly. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

6. …MAN HISTORY • 35,000 years ago small groups of people left Central Asia for Europe. Cold temperatures kept them there. • They became paler and shorter than their African ancestors. • 15000 years ago, one small clan of arctic dwellers followed the reindeer herd over the Bering Strait land bridge to North America. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

7. …MAN HISTORY • Some time in the past, random mutations, which can happen naturally and be harmless, marked a new begging. • Climate changes may have coaxed humans out of Africa and encouraged Neanderthals already living there to spread outward into other parts of Asia and southeastern Europe. • But a climatic reversal also could have turned the tables. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

8. …MAN HISTORY • Europe and Northern Asia were experiencing a cool era at that time, and even hearty Neanderthals probably would have found the warmer climates to the south enticing. • “They pushed back probably from the Caucasus region to the north, and drove the humans then living there into retreat” Bar-Yosefsuggested. • Only a second advance by humans thousands of years later—one that was more permanently successful—ultimately settled the question of which species would prevail. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

9. CLIMATE FACTOR • A major mystery in the story of human evolution is how climate affected the environment where creatures that regularly walked upright—the hominids—first emerged. • One widely accepted theory holds that after the ape and hominid lineages split, the earliest human ancestors were forced into the expanding tropical grasslands of the African savanna after the continent's thick forests dwindled as a result of climate change. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

10. Sustainable Energy Technology Primary Energy: All we use comes from the sun. Solar radiation Key to Sustainability: Utilize primary energy resource at the same rate at which it is naturally replenished on earth and without externalities. Source : BMW Group,2000 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

11. EARLY HISTORY AND USE OF ENERGY Mesopotamia • An area geographically located between the Tigris and Euphrates rivers, largely corresponding to Iraq, Khuzestan region of southwestern Iran. • 8000 B.C people of the area used wood and wood charcoal and oil. • Include Sumer and the Akkadian, Babylonian, Assyrian Empires. • Known as “Cradle of civilization” Keyhani.1@osu.edu

12. …EARLY HISTORY AND USE OF ENERGY IRON AGE • The Neo-Assyrian Empire was a period of Mesopotamian history which began in 934 BC and ended in 609 BC. About half a century later, the Babylonians and Assyrians both became provinces of the Persian Empire which gave way to the Achaemenid Empire. • Seal of Cyrus, the Great.(550 B.C.) Keyhani.1@osu.edu

13. …EARLY HISTORY AND USE OF ENERGY EGYPT • 5000 B.C, Egyptians used wood and wood charcoal for cooking and heat. Inscriber Egypt. (3000BC.) Keyhani.1@osu.edu

14. …EARLY HISTORY AND USE OF ENERGY GREECE • 750 B.C TO 146 B.C, considered to the seminal culture which provided the foundation for western civilization. • Greek culture had a power influence on Roman Empire. The Parthenon is the most memorable symbol of the culture and sophistication of the ancient Greeks. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

15. …EARLY HISTORY AND USE OF ENERGY INDIA • The Indus Valley Civilization (3000–1500 B.C) flourished in the Indus river valleys primarily in Sindh province of Pakistan, extending westward into Balochistan province, and in north western and western India. • According to archaeologists, wheel was probably invented in around 8,000 B.C. in India. Taj mahal Chariots belonging to the Aryans of ancient India Keyhani.1@osu.edu

16. …EARLY HISTORY AND USE OF ENERGY CHINA • China is one of the world's oldest continuous civilizations (extends 5000 years). • Deep Drilling of Gas: Technique developed in 100 B.C. The devices that were used were remarkably large and well crafted for time. • The Chinese’s building process was dramatically sped up because of this useful invention. The wheelbarrow emerged in first century BC. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

17. CHRONOLOGY OF OIL DISCOVERY AND USAGE • 450 B.C :Herodotus described oil pits near Babylon. • 325 B.C : Alexander the great used flaming torches of petroleum products to scare his enemies. • 1264 : Marco Polo recorded visiting the Persian city of Baku, on the shores of the Caspian Sea in modern Azerbaijan, he saw oil being collected from seeps for use in medicine and lighting. • 1814 : One of the first wells that produced oil which was marketed was drilled near Marietta, Ohio Keyhani.1@osu.edu

18. …CHRONOLOGY OF OIL DISCOVERY AND USAGE • 1895 : Invention of combustion engine. • 1896 : Henry Ford's first motorcar. • 1908 - Oil discovered in Persia, Anglo Persian Oil company formed (Later became British Petroleum, BP). • 1938 - Oil discovered in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia. • 1939-1945 - World War II - control of oil supply from Baku and Middle East played a huge role in the events of the war and the ultimate victory of the allies. Cutting off the oil supply considerably weakened Japan in the latter part of the war. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

19. …CHRONOLOGY OF OIL DISCOVERY AND USAGE • 1951 : Anglo Iranian Oil Company nationalized. • 1954 : Anglo-Persian Oil Company renamed British Petroleum. • 1979-1981 : Oil prices rise from $13.00 to $34.00. • 1986 : Chernobyl - Nuclear power plant accident. • 2003 : (Aug 14) - Major electrical failure causes blackout in New York State and Ontario. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

20. …CHRONOLOGY OF OIL DISCOVERY AND USAGE • 2004 (July) - US oil imports at a record 11.3MMBO per day. • 2004 - (Nov) George Bush re-elected President in USA. • 2004 (Oct 25) - Oil at a record price of $55.67 US per barrel on concerns over high demand and possible supply disruptions in the Middle East and damage on the Gulf Coast from Hurricane Ivan . • 2008 (Jan 2) - WTI oil price briefly touches US$100 per barrel for the first time driven by supply concerns and the weak US dollar. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

21. Is an Oil economy Sustainable? • In the long run, an economy that utilizes petroleum as a primary energy source is not sustainable, because the amount of oil in the Earth’s crust is finite. • The history of energy use is largely one of substitution. In the 19th century, the world’s primary energy source was wood. • Around 1890, wood was replaced by coal. Coal remained the world’s largest source of energy until the 1960s when it was replaced by oil. • No one can predict the future, but the world contains enough petroleum resources to last at least until the year 2100. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

22. The above graph shows the Hubbert predictions in 1956 which shows the estimates of the oil production in the future which is compared with the actual production. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

23. The world average oil production per capita from 1920 to 1999. The curve represents the ratio of world oil production (O) and world population (Pop): i.e. ô = O/(Pop) in barrels per capita per year (i.e. b/c/year). Note well that ô grew exponentially from 1920 to 1973. Next, growth was negligible from 1973 to the all-time peak in 1979. Finally, from its peak in 1979 to 1999, ô decreased at an average rate of 1.20% per year. (i.e. from 5.50 b/c in 1979 to 4.32 b/c in 1999) Keyhani.1@osu.edu

24. World average energy production per capita (ê) grew significantly from 1920 to its all-time peak in 1979. • Then from its peak in 1979 to 1999, ê declined at an average rate of 0.33 %/year. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

25. Introduction to Current Energy Use World-Wide Total Energy Sources 86.5% combustion • 21.1% Natural Gas • 32.6% oil • 22.2% coal • 10.6% traditional biomass • 5.7% nuclear • 5.5% hydro-electric • 2.3% renewables (other than traditional biomass) Boyle, Renewable Energy, Oxford University Press (2004) Keyhani.1@osu.edu

26. Introduction to current energy use Trends in World Total Energy Use (last 30 years) BP website www.bp.com Keyhani.1@osu.edu

27. Introduction to current Energy Use Regional Distribution of Total Energy Use Regional Consumption Pattern 2006 Percentage 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 North America S. & Cent. America Europe & Eurasia Middle East Africa Asia Pacific Oil remains the leading energy source in all regions except Asia Pacific and Europe and Eurasia. Coal dominates in the Asia Pacific Region, while Natural Gas is the leading fuel in Europe and Eurasia. The Asia Pacific region accounted for two-thirds global energy consumption last year. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

28. Introduction to current Energy Use World Energy Use for Electricity Generation 64% combustion • 39% coal • 15% gas • 10% oil • 16% nuclear • 19% hydro-electric World Nuclear Association, 2008 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

29. Introduction to current Energy Use World Energy Resource Trends Year 2000 Year 2020 405*1015 BTU 610*1015 BTU – 50% increase Source : EIA, U.S, DOE, 2007 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

30. Energy Sustainability Discussion Primary Energy : All We Use Comes from the Sun. Energy sustainability requires use of resources at the same rate at which they are naturally replenished on earth without externalities.” Source : BMW Group, 2000 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

31. Energy Sustainability Discussion Earth at night - 2007 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

32. Energy Sustainability Discussion Earth at night 2030 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

33. Electricity Consumption Keyhani.1@osu.edu

34. Introduction to Current Energy Use World-Wide Total Energy Sources 86.5% combustion • 21.1% Natural Gas • 32.6% oil • 22.2% coal • 10.6% traditional biomass • 5.7% nuclear • 5.5% hydro-electric • 2.3% renewables (other than traditional biomass) Boyle, Renewable Energy, Oxford University Press (2004)

35. Energy Sustainability Discussion 2.5 A small number, BUT, at this IEA forecast average annual growth rate (2.5%) world electricity demand will double by 2030 75 IEA forecasts world carbon dioxide emissions due to power generation to increase over 75% from 2002 to 2030 (from 9417 metric tons to 16771 metric tons) 1.5 billion 2006 world population equals 6.7 billion. The UN forecasts population will grow to 8.2 Billion by 2030. That’s another 1.5 billion people who will need electricity…equivalent to adding 5 new USA’s to the globe.

36. Energy Sustainability Discussion • Current overall “effectiveness” of energy consumption is DEPRESSING • We Would be better off burning a lump of coal at home to produce light? • Highly poor end-use efficiency • - Transport emissions/efficiency challenges. • - End-use emissions.

37. Global Climate Solar irradiation enters atmosphere primarily as UV radiation Earth radiation to space is primarily Infra-red radiation Composition of atmosphere affects how much energy is absorbed, reflected, transmitted through,…. • Similar to a car window IPCC, 2006 ; http://www.ipcc.ch/ Keyhani.1@osu.edu

38. Global Climate Many factors influence climate One cannot prove that human activity is causing climate change, but, preponderance of evidence is certain IPCC, 2006 ; http://www.ipcc.ch/ Keyhani.1@osu.edu

39. Co2 Emission Around the World Keyhani.1@osu.edu

40. Production of CO2 Since 1700 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

41. Global Climate Carbon dioxide concentration, temperature, sea level continue to rise long after emissions are reduced. IPCC, 2006 ; http://www.ipcc.ch/ Keyhani.1@osu.edu

42. Global Climate Departures in temperatures ( degree celsius ) from 1961-1990 average IPCC, 2006 ; http://www.ipcc.ch/ Keyhani.1@osu.edu

43. Energy Sustainability Discussion Source : EIA, U.S., DOE, 2007 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

44. Energy Sustainability Discussion We SHOULD move towards “clean” energy Technologies • “Green Tech” and “clean energy” have become Wall Street darlings – GOOD. • Need much more than hype. Global Installation/Production Growth : Solar, Wind, Biofuels Source : Clean Energy, Inc. Keyhani.1@osu.edu

45. Energy Sustainability Discussion Proven Energy Resources around the world Reserves-to-production (R/P) : R/P ratios represent the length of time that those remaining reserves would last if production were to continue at the previous year's rate. It is calculated by dividing remaining reserves at the end of the year by the production in that year. BP website – www.bp.com Keyhani.1@osu.edu

46. Energy Sustainability Proved reserves at end 2006 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

47. Energy Sustainability Discussion Caifornia Global Climate Initiatives • Achieving goals will require “remarkable” and “significant” adoption of new technologies affecting all economic sectors. • Electricity generation sector example Source : Ferguson, CEERT, March2,2007 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

48. Energy Sustainability Discussion Oil Discovery and Production Trends Source : Campbell, Hubbert Peak, 2005 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

49. Energy Sustainability Historical and projected Oil production vs. Region Source : Campbell, Hubbert Peak, 2005 Keyhani.1@osu.edu

50. Introduction to Current Energy Use Petroleum Production Projected Peak oil (2016-2028) Source : Oil and Gas Journal, 2004 Keyhani.1@osu.edu